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Forecasting
The AKE Intelligence team have proved time and time again that they are able to accurately forecast certain events. We do not take a scattergun or “crystal ball” approach to our forecasting, and we ensure our predictions are as concise and to-the-point as is possible. We pride ourselves on our independent voice and of making accurate judgments as to how political and security landscapes develop and change. All of our assertions are backed up by thorough research and reasoned analysis.
Afghanistan
AKE Forecast: After the 28 January suicide attack in Kabul and the latest assault on the Safi hotel, analysts and commentators rightly mention the gap in the amount of time between the last attack on foreigners in the capital and the latest assault in Wazir Akbar Khan. Despite the apparently sporadic attacks, it is AKE's view that the threat had not subsided, and is ongoing. Future attacks are a certainty. Militants have proved time and again that they are able to penetrate the perimeter of the city. While some attacks are thwarted it is inevitable that others will get through. It had seemed before the attack that militants were concentrating on Afghan security forces, but this is clearly not the case and attacks on ministries, embassies and places frequented by foreigners are likely. 8 February 2011
Result: Three people killed in Kabul suicide attack. 14 February 2011
Burma
AKE Forecast:Fighting between the Burmese Army and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is only set to increase as Kachin rebels have destroyed several bridges in the north of the country to prevent attacks by the army. Anticipating a heavy government offensive, thousands of local residents are fleeing the area. Fears are high that current fighting could spread and intensify into a wider conflict between different ethnic minority factions and Burma's army. 16 June 2011
Result: Three explosions in Myanmar's capital Naypyitaw and two other towns blamed on ethnic separatists. 24 June 2011
Greece
AKE Forecast: The likelihood of civil unrest is rising as anger over the country's economic woes continues to prompt strikes. 5 February 2010
Result: March - Unions plan third general strike. 16 March 2010
Hungary
AKE Forecast: A significant shift in favour of right-wing parties is expected in the first round of parliamentary elections. 9 April 2010
Result: Right wing Fidesz party wins the Hungarian election. 11 April 2010
Iraq
AKE Forecast: Opportunist terrorist attacks by Sunni terrorists should be anticipated throughout mixed districts of the country ahead of the Shi'ah festival of al-Ashura. 17 December 2009
Result: Scores are killed and over 100 injured in countrywide attacks. 24 December 2009
Russia
AKE Forecast: A bomb attack on a passenger train between Moscow and St. Petersburg on 27 November could herald the start of a renewed terrorist campaign in mainland Russia.
Result: Bombs are detonated on the Moscow metro in March.
Pakistan
AKE Forecast: The country will suffer a turbulent summer and militancy appears to be leaching back in to Swat district.
Result: Pakistan faces a Taliban resurgence. 10 May 2010
Piracy
AKE Forecast: Ransom demands are set to increase over the coming months. 1 September 2009
Result: On 18 January the Maran Centaurus was released for “the highest ransom in the history of pirate attacks.”
Saudi Arabia
AKE Forecast: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is now focusing on mounting cross-border attacks in Saudi Arabia from its bases in Yemen. 20 April 2009
Result: On 27 August a suicide bomber and member of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula bypassed airport security, flew to Saudi Arabia and managed to blow himself up, injuring the deputy interior minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayef.
Sri Lanka
AKE Forecast: Acts of intimidation and political violence should be anticipated countrywide ahead of presidential polls due on 26 January. 4 January 2010
Result: At least 800 incidents of political violence, including five killings and an assault on a female BBC journalist have been reported.
Yemen
AKE Forecast: Personnel based in the unstable province of as-Sa'adah should anticipate a rise in tensions as the government is reportedly increasing its troop presence in the area. 12 March 2009
Result: In August UN bodies report that over 100,000 have been displaced by fighting between the Yemeni military and local rebels which escalated towards the end of May. |
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