Americas: 120 injured in clashes at Gen Z-led protest in Mexico City
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; violent clashes
In Mexico, on 15 November 120 people – including 100 police officers – were injured and 20 were arrested after protesters attacked police with fireworks, stones, sticks and chains at a Gen Z-led protest against violent crime, corruption and impunity in Mexico City. The protest, attended by thousands, followed the 1 November assassination of anti-crime Uruapan Mayor, Carlos Alberto Manzo – the seventh in Michoacan state in three years – sparking criticism of the government’s failure to contain cartel violence. The assassination prompted President Claudia Sheinbaum to announce a new security plan for Michoacan on 4 November amid state-wide unrest. While Sheinbaum has accused the far-right of infiltrating the Gen Z movement, her administration faces a choice between upholding her predecessor and former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s conciliatory approach to security policy or adopting a tougher stance on crime amid rising public anger, risking further such protests.
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Asia Pacific: Civil unrest risks increased in Bangladesh after former PM Hasina’s sentencing
Sectors: all
Key Risks: violent unrest; targeted attacks; political violence; political polarisation
In Bangladesh, on 17 November the country’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT-1) found former prime minister Sheikh Hasina guilty of crimes against humanity and issued her the death penalty for her government’s response to the July 2024 uprising. On 18 July 2024 at least 1,400 student protesters were killed and over 20,000 were injured across the country after Hasina authorised a violent crackdown on demonstrations over job quota reforms. On 13 November assailants linked to Hasina’s banned Awami League (AL) party carried out arson attacks on branches of the Grameen Bank in Barisal, Barisal division and Gopalganj, Dhaka division. The assailants targeted the bank over its link to its founder and Hasina’s successor, interim Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus. The risk of violent unrest over Hasina’s sentencing will remain high in the coming days and ahead of the general election in February 2026.
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Eurasia: Zelensky’s position in Ukraine and Europe undermined over major corruption scandal
Sectors: energy
Key Risks: economic and business; political stability
In Ukraine, pressure on President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to increase following the 10 November investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), which revealed a US$100m kickback scheme in the energy sector. The scandal involved Zelensky’s close allies, including businessman Timur Mindich and the Justice and Energy Ministers, German Galushchenko and Svitlana Grynchuk, respectively. While the two Ministers immediately resigned and Zelensky pledged an overhaul of state-owned energy companies, the revelations have triggered public outrage amid Zelensky’s already-declining popularity. The reaction has been amplified by the scheme’s connection to kickbacks from energy construction and procurement projects, including defences for energy infrastructure during Russia’s intensified campaign against these facilities. The scandal will test Zelensky’s standing in Europe, with Kyiv’s Western partners likely to increase pressure on the government to tackle corruption, rather than reduce military and political support.
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Europe: Serbia presses to secure oil firm Nis after US sanctions on Russia
Sectors: oil & gas
Key Risks: business disruptions,
In Serbia, on 16 November President Aleksandar Vucic stated that Belgrade had one week to decide on steps to secure oil supplies for oil firm Nis. Banks have frozen transactions with Nis and authorities reported that the company only has enough oil to operate until 25 November. On 10 January the US sanctioned the firm – majority-owned by Russian Gazprom Neft and Gazprom – giving it 45 days to exit the investment before extending the deadline. The sanctions finally came into effect on 9 October. On 30 October Nis posted a net loss of EUR2.3m (US$2.66m) in the first nine months of 2025 as the firm’s profits were weighed down by US sanctions and lower oil prices. Vucic seeks to avoid nationalising the firm and signalled he was ready to make an above-market offer if Russia’s talks with foreign buyers failed. Energy disruptions cannot be ruled out.
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MENA: Rocket strike in Syria’s capital signals expanding threat to urban areas
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil war; targeted attacks, governability
In Syria, on 14 November at least one person was injured when two Katyusha rockets hit a residential building in Damascus’ Al-Mazzeh district, one of the most densely populated neighbourhoods in the capital. The Defence Ministry announced that a military team located and secured the launch site in the al-Lawan area of Kafr Sousah, on the outskirts of Damascus. According to the Ministry, another rocket fell on the road leading to the presidential palace in Damascus. Katyusha rockets are frequently used by Iranian-backed militias, several of which operate in the Kafr Sousah neighbourhood. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack. Since the ouster of former president Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, rocket attacks in the capital have become highly unusual. As armed activity intensifies, further rocket or factional strikes in densely populated urban areas cannot be ruled out.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: US-South Africa tensions high ahead of 22 November G20 Summit
Sectors: all
Key risks: trade disruption; trade friction
In South Africa, on 22 November members of the G20 will meet in Johannesburg, Gauteng province, amid tensions with the US. On 5 September US President Donald Trump announced that he would not attend the summit, stating that Vice President JD Vance would represent the US, before stating on 5 November that no US official would attend the summit. Citing the perceived treatment of Afrikaner populations in South Africa, Trump also called for the dismissal of South Africa from the G20. Tensions between the two countries will continue to worsen, likely leading to further tariffs and diplomatic incidents. Diplomatic tensions will likely push Pretoria further into China and Russia’s diplomatic orbits, likely widening the rift with the US and intensifying Trump’s calls for the country’s removal from the G20.
Click here to access South Africa’s Global Intake country profile.