Date first published: 18/11/2025
Key sectors: all
Key risks: disruptive unrest; political violence; political polarisation
Risk development
On 17 November former prime minister Sheikh Hasina was tried in absentia, found guilty of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death for her role in the violent crackdown on demonstrations on 18 July 2024, which left over 1,400 people dead and more than 20,000 injured. On 17 November 50 people, including AL activists and police personnel, were also injured in Dhanmondi, Dhaka, immediately after Hasina’s death penalty sentencing. Police deployed tear gas and sound grenades as the protest spread to other neighbourhoods, including Kalabagan, Jigatola and Pantapath.
Why it matters
Hasina’s sentencing came in the aftermath of the country’s deadliest political crackdown since Dhaka’s 1971 Liberation War with Pakistan. Despite fleeing the country on 5 August 2024 and mass arrests of the Awami League (AL)’s supporters during Operation Devil Hunt in February, Hasina maintains a moderate support base across the country. On 13 November the AL’s supporters carried out arson attacks against branches of the Grameen Bank in Barisal, Barisal division and Gopalganj, Dhaka division. The attacks specifically targeted the Grameen Bank, founded by interim Chief Adviser Dr. Muhamad Yunus, ahead of the International Crimes Tribunal’s (ICT) verdict on Sheikh Hasina.
Background
On 5 June 2024 Dhaka’s High Court reinstated the job quota system, setting aside 30 per cent of jobs for the descendants of fighters from the country’s 1971 Liberation War. Protesters, fearing the erosion of the merit-based system and the granting of preferred positions to AL allies, rallied against the motion across the country. Hasina dismissed the protesters, accusing them of promoting an “anti-state agenda”. The accusation, combined with chronic frustrations over corruption, nepotism and authoritarian practices, rapidly intensified the demonstrations.
On 5 August 2024 Hasina was forced to flee the country and face exile in India, while an interim government led by Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has overseen Dhaka’s politics in a caretaker capacity since 8 August 2024. On 8 February the caretaker government launched a crackdown on the AL titled Operation Devil Hunt, arresting over 1,300 people – mostly linked to the AL – within the first 24 hours. The operation was gradually followed by an outright ban on AL activities and electoral participation on 10 May.
Risk outlook
Hasina’s sentencing is highly likely to fuel disruptive, potentially violent unrest. In the aftermath of Hasina’s death sentence, the AL is likely to hold hartals, or mass demonstrations, potentially paralysing the country and its economy by blockading roads and staging mass rallies in urban centres. Moreover, the risks of clashes and political violence remain high as rival parties – particularly the Bangladeshi Nationalist Party (BNP), New Citizens Party (NCP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) – seek to suppress the AL’s activities.
Moreover, on 16 November Hasina’s son, Sajeeb Wazed, vowed to “block” the upcoming February 2026 election by holding AL-led protests across the country until the party’s ban is lifted – which Dhaka has vowed it will not backtrack on. The Grameen Bank is likely to continue to face an elevated risk of targeted attacks due to its direct ties to Chief Adviser Yunus. Assets linked to other non-AL officials, such as government buildings, may also face an elevated risk of violence. In the longer term, the AL’s continued ban may raise the risks of inter-party violence in the run-up to the February general election. Attacks on voting and polling stations by AL-affiliated groups cannot be ruled out.