Americas: US adds Venezuelan cartel to terror list, announces launch of new Venezuela phase
Sectors: all
Key Risks: regional escalation; regional conflict
In Venezuela, on 24 November the US designated the Cartel de los Soles – which it asserts is linked to President Nicolas Maduro – a terrorist organisation. The move came after on 22 November sources revealed the US was poised to launch a new phase of operations in the coming days as US President Donald Trump’s administration escalates pressure on Maduro’s regime amid deadly strikes on drug boats and a major US military buildup in the region. Officials stated that covert operations would likely be the first part of new action, with potential options including an overthrow of Maduro’s regime. On 22 November Washington issued a warning to international airlines of a “potentially hazardous situation” in the country’s airspace, prompting three airlines to cancel flights. As the designation offers legal cover for potential direct military action against Caracas, the risk of regional escalation will remain heightened.
Click here to access Venezuela’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Philippine police begin arrests of officials linked to flood control corruption scandal
Sectors: all; construction
Key Risks: disruptive unrest; political violence
In the Philippines, on 24 November President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced that police had arrested seven people linked to the country’s ongoing scandal surrounding failed, incomplete and non-existent flood control projects. No details surrounding the identity of those arrested were released. On 13 November Marcos vowed to arrest all 18 individuals implicated in the embezzlement of up to “70 per cent of funds” dedicated to flood prevention projects. Former House of Representatives Appropriations Committee chair Elizaldy Co, one of the first politicians to be linked to the scandal after he was discovered to have unfairly granted flood control projects to the Sunwest Corporation construction company that he co-founded, remains at large. Further arrests are likely ahead of the Trillion Peso March’s mass anti-corruption rally in Manila on 30 November, while the risk of targeted attacks on implicated construction firms remains heightened.
Click here to access the Philippines’ Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Trump pressures Ukraine to accept US-Russia peace plan; Europe scrambles to respond
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 18 November reports emerged that the US drafted a 28-point plan in secret talks with Russia in late October to end the war in Ukraine. US officials claimed the plan – which included Ukraine giving up parts of Donetsk Oblast it still controls, renouncing NATO aspirations and limiting its army’s size – was drafted with input from both Kyiv and Moscow. The plan was leaked amid Russian battlefield gains and a massive corruption scandal involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s closest allies, with Washington giving Kyiv until 27 November to accept the deal. On 23 November US, Ukrainian and European leaders met in Geneva to discuss the plan, with European leaders releasing a counter-proposal that rejected conditions perceived as favouring Moscow. US President Donald Trump signalled frustration with the pushback and is likely to intensify pressure on Zelensky to accept his plan. Russia will likely reject the counter-proposal.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: France’s parliament to vote on defence spending amid increased uncertainty over 2026 budget
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; economic
In France, on 23 November the National Assembly rejected the income provisions of the proposed 2026 budget, increasing uncertainty that parliament will approve the budget by the end of the year. The budget will now head to the Senate, where it will likely be stripped down of several amendments added by the Assembly. Following the Senate’s review, lawmakers from both chambers will convene in an attempt to find a compromise and agree on the final version. In the meantime, both chambers will hold “ad hoc” votes to showcase that there is still common ground among lawmakers, with the first one on defence spending expected in the coming days. The vote will test Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s efforts to build support after making major concessions to the Socialists, including suspending the landmark pension reform. Intense negotiations are expected in the coming weeks, but the budget’s approval remains uncertain.
Click here to access France’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Civil unrest risks in Tunisia increase amid President Saeid’s escalating crackdowns
Sectors: all
Key risks: government instability; civil unrest; political violence; arbitrary arrests
In Tunisia, on 22 November around 2,000 people in Tunis under the banner “Against Injustice” protested President Kais Saeid’s growing authoritarianism, arrest of critics and repression of civil society. The rally brought together political activists, NGOs and families of political detainees. Demonstrators accused Saied of misusing counterterrorism and cybercrime laws to silence dissent, pointing to the suspension of over a dozen NGOs and reports of more than 50 arbitrary arrests since 2022. Human Rights Watch has documented abuse of Decree-Law 54 on cybercrime to target journalists, lawyers and activists. Further large-scale protests are very likely in the coming days, particularly if demands for the release of political prisoners go unmet. With civil society space under increased scrutiny, Saeid will likely double down on arbitrary detentions or legal crackdowns to pre-empt mass mobilisation. A selective release of lower-profile detainees to calm protests cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access Tunisia’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Pressure on Nigeria to increase after 315 kidnapped in Papiri, Niger state
Sectors: all
Key risks: kidnapping; regional escalation; gang violence; terrorism
In Nigeria, on 21 November 303 students and 12 teachers were kidnapped by unidentified assailants from a Catholic school in Papiri, Niger state, making the largest mass-kidnapping incident since 276 students were kidnapped in Chibok, Borno state, in 2014. Kainji National Park, where the kidnappers launched their attack, is home to a number of armed Islamist groups, suggesting a potential connection. The kidnapping will likely garner greater US pressure on government officials over the treatment of Christian populations, with a senior State Department official stating on 21 November that a proposal was being drafted that considered military action. Domestically, local governments called for greater protection, with six states shutting down schools to prevent further kidnappings. Abuja is likely to announce a series of military operations to clamp down on kidnapping and rescue the victims in the coming days.
Click here to access Nigeria’s Global Intake country profile.