Americas: Five killed, 12 injured in VBIED attack in Mexico’s Michoacan state
Sectors: all
Key Risks: targeted attacks; gang violence
In Mexico, on 6 December five people were killed – including three police officers – and 12 were injured in a VBIED attack outside a police station in Coahuayana, Michoacan state. This came after the 1 November assassination of an anti-crime mayor in Uruapan, Michoacan state, triggered violent anti-corruption protests in Mexico City and prompted President Claudia Sheinbaum to launch the ‘Michoacan Plan’ security strategy on 4 November. Michoacan represents a microcosm of a broader shift in criminal dynamics, where three drug cartels – Jalisco New Generation, United Cartels and The New Michoacan Family, all designated terrorist organisations by Washington – vie for territorial control and diversification of criminal activities. Despite a deployment of an additional 2,000 troops and the enhancement of intelligence sharing capabilities, the ‘Michoacan Plan’ is unlikely to dislodge organised crime without a viable anti-corruption strategy, with further such attacks likely.
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Asia Pacific: Cambodian rocket bases at heightened risk amid reignited border clashes
Sectors: all
Key Risks: violent clashes; accidental conflict; war on land; regional escalation
In Cambodia, on 8 December Bangkok confirmed it had carried out a successful airstrike on a casino near Chong An Ma, Nam Yuen district, alleging that Phnom Penh used it as a drone command center. The strike followed reignited border clashes between Bangkok and Phnom Penh on 7 December, in which one Thai soldier was killed and eight Thai soldiers and three Cambodian civilians were injured. According to Thailand, the confrontation started when Cambodian forces opened fire on Thai troops in the Phu Pha Lek Phlan Hin Paet Kon area. However, Phnom Penh, denies the claim, asserting that Bangkok was responsible for triggering the clash and insisting its forces did not return fire. Cambodian rocket sites face an increased risk of strikes in the coming days, as Bangkok has stated its primary objective is to disable as many of these installations as possible.
Click here to access Cambodia’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Ukraine’s strike on CPC terminal in Russia threatens Kazakhstan’s vital oil export lifeline
Sectors: all; oil and gas
Key Risks: war-at-sea; business disruptions; trade disruptions
In Russia, on 29 November Ukrainian naval drones struck the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)’s marine oil terminal near Novorossiysk. Seaborne loadings were briefly halted, and the attack severely damaged one of CPC’s three offshore moorings that load tankers. As a second mooring was undergoing repairs since 12 November, the attack reduced the loading capacity of the terminal – which handles up to 80 per cent of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and 1 per cent of global supply, much of it bound for Europe – by half, with only one mooring still functioning. Astana condemned the attack. The incident will disrupt exports in the short-term, with Astana rushing to repair the second mooring by 11-13 December. It will raise pressure on Astana to boost alternative export routes such as Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, and consider reviving the Baku-Supsa route, but it will incur major financial losses. Further such incidents are likely.
Click here to access Kazakhstan’s and here to access Russia’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: President Pavel to appoint Babis as prime minister on 9 December in Czechia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In the Czech Republic, on 9 December President Petr Pavel will appoint the head of the ANO (Yes) party, Andrej Babis, as prime minister. This will follow Babis’s 4 December announcement that he would give up his agricultural conglomerate Agrofert, thereby resolving his conflict of interest – Pavel’s condition for his appointment. Agrofert will reportedly be managed by an independently appointed administrator but the company will pass to Babis’s children upon his death. Further details remain unknown, and Babis has 30 days to resolve the conflict from the moment of his appointment. Babis’s appointment could accelerate the government formation process. However, Pavel remains reluctant to appoint the Motorists Party’s nominee for environment minister, Filip Turek, due to several scandals, including his racist social media posts. As the Motorists insist on Turek’s appointment – and Babis needs them to form a government – delays in the formation process cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access the Czech Republic’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Iran rejects renewed GCC claims over islands; warns neighbours not to test red lines
Sectors: all; oil and gas; shipping
Key risks: economic risks; business risks; accidental conflict; regional escalation
In Iran, on 4 December senior official Ali Shamkhani issued a warning after the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) renewed claims over three disputed islands, Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb, and supported Saudi Arabia and Kuwait’s ownership of the Arash/Durra gas field. Shamkhani associated the claims with post-war regional tensions, emphasising the islands as sovereignty red lines and warning that Iran’s restraint during the 13-24 June Iran-Israel conflict should not be misread. GCC Secretary General Jasem al-Budaiwi condemned Iran’s statements, stressing they violate regional stability. Intensified diplomatic exchanges are likely in the next few days. Increased Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz is expected. Gulf states may respond with coordinated diplomatic pressure and security cooperation. Further militarisation could trigger greater maritime risks, leading to volatility in Gulf energy markets and global oil supply.
Click here to access Iran’s Global Intake profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Niger seeks to export uranium along militant-controlled roads
Sectors: all: mining, transport
Key risks: targeted attacks; cargo transport; nuclear accident
In Niger, on 4 December a convoy transporting 1,000 tonnes of uranium oxide from Arlit, Agadez region, arrived in the capital Niamey. With Lome, Togo, as the final destination in the coming weeks, the convoy is set to be escorted by the military and a contingent of Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) mercenaries through the southwest of the country and western Burkina Faso. Despite the armed escort, the convoy will pose major security risks for roads in Niger and eastern Burkina Faso as the planned route uses roadways controlled by Islamist militant groups Jama’at Nasr al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State – Sahel Province (IS-SP). While the militant groups are highly unlikely to capture or contest the convoy, the growing number of vehicles joining the armed convoy will increase the likelihood of IED attacks or ambushes as it drives through Niger.
Click here to access Niger’s Global Intake country profile.