Americas: Government declares SoE after at least five killed in string of attacks in Guatemala
Sectors: all
Key Risks: communal violence; violent clashes; gang violence
In Guatemala, on 14 December President Bernardo Arevalo’s government declared a state of emergency (SoE) – limiting open-air meetings and public events – for 15 days in Nahuala and Santa Catarina Ixtahuacan municipalities, Solola department. The SoE came after at least five people were killed in a string of attacks by armed assailants on a military post and a police station between 11 and 13 December. Authorities stated that criminal gangs cut off roads and hijacked buses to force security forces to withdraw to take control of the region. This came amid a decades-old dispute between the indigenous communities of the two municipalities over water sources and road access that they both claim as their own, which had previously led to dozens of deaths. Despite the measure, given the precedent of communal violence as well as escalating gang violence, the risk of further such attacks will remain heightened.
Click here to access Guatemala’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Thailand cuts fuel exports to Laos amid alleged redirection of supply to Cambodia
Sectors: energy
Key Risks: supply chain disruption; business disruption
In Thailand, on 15 December officials halted all fuel exports to Laos travelling via the Chong Mek border crossing in Ubon Ratchathani province. Bangkok’s military stated it had received intelligence that the fuel had been diverted to support Cambodian troops amid ongoing border clashes between Bangkok and Phnom Penh. Officials stated that inspections were launched after abnormally high amounts of fuel orders from Laos compared to previous periods. Vientiane remains heavily reliant on fuel imports, with roughly 95 per cent of its supply imported from Bangkok. Thai officials affirmed that an impact on the country was “not Bangkok’s intention”. Nonetheless, the risk of reduced fuel supply is likely to impact domestic energy production and drive up fuel costs throughout Laos in the coming days. Further restrictions are likely if Bangkok perceives Laos to support Cambodia in the ongoing conflict.
Click here to access Thailand’s, and here to access Laos’, Global Intake country profiles.
Eurasia: Brussels indefinitely freezes Russian assets; Russia files lawsuit against Euroclear
Sectors: all
Key Risks: policy uncertainty; economic risks
On 12 December EU governments agreed to freeze EUR210bln (US$246bln) of Russia’s sovereign assets indefinitely, rather than needing to vote every six months on an extension, aiming to bypass Hungary’s veto. This came after on 8 December European leaders reported progress on using Russian assets for a ‘repatriations loan’ to Ukraine. The plan – which would supply US$104bln of Kyiv’s 2026-2027 budget requirements – was unveiled on 3 December but has faced significant resistance from Belgium, which fears a possible legal challenge. On 2 December the European Central Bank (ECB) refused Brussels’ request to act as a lender of last resort to Euroclear Bank – the lending arm of Belgium’s Euroclear, which holds the assets – to avoid a liquidity crisis. On 15 December Russia’s Central Bank filed a lawsuit seeking US$229bln in damages from Euroclear. Further negotiations are likely ahead of the 18-19 December European Council meeting.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Bulgarian President to launch consultations on forming new government; Romanians protest over corruption in judiciary
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest
In Bulgaria, President Rumen Radev is set to launch talks with parliamentary groups in the coming days on forming a new government after the government of Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov resigned on 11 December following mass anti-government protests. The protests were sparked by the government’s 2026 budget proposal but expanded to include calls for the government’s resignation. Snap elections are increasingly likely, with political instability set to remain high. Meanwhile, in Romania, thousands of people have been protesting for several consecutive days after on 10 December a documentary revealed unethical practices in the judiciary. Over 700 judges and prosecutors have signed an open letter denouncing the “profound and systemic dysfunction” of the justice system, prompting President Nicusor Dan to launch consultations with them. Protests are likely to continue in the coming days amid rising pressure to reform the judiciary.
Click here to access Bulgaria’s and here to access Romania’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Suspected IS attack kills two US soldiers and one citizen in Syria, increasing tensions
Sectors: all
Key risks: terrorism; violent clashes; targeted attacks;
In Syria, on 13 December two US Army soldiers and a civilian interpreter were killed in a suspected Islamic State (IS) attack on a US-Syrian convoy near Palmyra, Homs province. The assailant – a Syrian security forces member previously flagged for extremist views and due to be dismissed from his role on 14 December – was killed by US forces. Syrian forces and the International Coalition (IC) launched coordinated operations, including the use of flares by US forces. Syrian Interior Ministry spokesperson Nour al-Din al-Baba stated that Damascus had warned the IC of potential IS attacks in the desert, but the IC failed to act on those warnings. Joint counterterrorist operations are likely to intensify as US President Donald Trump vowed “very serious retaliation”. Further attacks targeting both local and international security forces are highly likely, particularly in areas beyond the effective control of the current government.
Click here to access Syria’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: M23 advances in eastern DRC worsens outlook for diplomatic resolution
Sectors: all
Key risks: political violence; regional escalation; regional conflict
In the DRC, on 11 December the Rwandan-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group captured the city of Uvira, the second largest in South Kivu province. The rebels reportedly entered the city uncontested, with the military withdrawing towards Baraka, South Kivu province. M23 launched a rapid offensive after breaking through defensive lines in South Kivu on 4 December, likely timed to coincide with the ratification of the 27 June peace agreement between Kinshasa and Kigali on the same day. In addition, Burundian officials claimed that M23 sought to expand towards Baraka, South Kivu province, and Kalemie, Tanganyika province, by 25 December. Despite calls by the US and Qatar for mediation between M23 and Kinshasa on 12 December, continuing military successes for the rebel group will likely dissuade political leaders within M23 from seeking a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing conflict.
Click here to access the DRC’s and here to access Rwanda’s Global Intake country profile.