Date first published: 11/12/2025
Key sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; institutional weakness; civil unrest; governability; corruption
Risk development
On 10 December the Standing Committee of Congress announced it would not validate the results of the 30 November presidential election due to “pressures” from internal organised crime structures and interference from US President Donald Trump, denouncing an ongoing “electoral coup”. On 9 December President Xiomara Castro also called the process an “electoral coup” and around 500 LIBRE supporters protested and set tyres alight outside ballot-storage offices in the capital Tegucigalpa. Former president, current LIBRE leader and Castro’s husband, Manuel Zelaya, called the protests, encouraging demonstrators to reject the electoral process.
The unrest came after on 8 December election officials resumed releasing updated election results, bringing the tally to 97 per cent of ballots counted. The conservative National Party’s Nasry Asfura now leads the vote with 40.52 per cent, narrowly ahead of the Liberal Party’s Salvador Nasralla with 39.18 per cent – by a margin of just 42,100 votes. The two have traded the lead throughout a count plagued by delays, technical failures, fraud allegations and interference from Trump, who threatened to withdraw aid if his preferred candidate, Asfura, loses.
Why it matters
The dispute threatens to erode confidence in the country’s electoral institutions amid already low public trust. Irregularities in vote transmission, inconsistent communication from the National Electoral Council (CNE) and the razor-thin margin have created a perception of procedural fragility. If either major political bloc refuses to accept the outcome, the country could enter a period of institutional paralysis.
The polarisation is further aggravated by external involvement. Trump’s endorsement of Asfura and his controversial pardon of former conservative president Juan Orlando Hernandez on 2 December, who had been serving a 45-year US sentence for drug trafficking and weapons offences, have been widely criticised and interpreted as foreign interference. These actions risk inflaming anti-US sentiment among opposition supporters while strengthening conservative sectors aligned with the National Party. A dispute over electoral legitimacy combined with questions about external influence has the potential to destabilise the country domestically and complicate its relationship with Washington.
Background
The country has a recent history of contested elections, most notably in 2017, when a prolonged halt in vote transmission coincided with a dramatic shift in favour of then-incumbent Hernandez after Nasralla maintained an early lead. The Organisation of American States (OAS) questioned the credibility of the result, while widespread protests saw 23 people killed and deepened distrust in state institutions. The unresolved legacy of 2017 looms over the current process, as many of the same vulnerabilities have resurfaced.
Risk outlook
The legal deadline for certifying a winner is 30 December, heightening pressure on the CNE and political actors. Civil unrest risks will remain heightened until the CNE certifies a result that is broadly accepted, which appears unlikely in the near term. LIBRE supporters may escalate demonstrations if Asfura’s lead is maintained without a full audit of disputed tally sheets. Nasralla’s supporters may also protest perceived domestic or external interference. Security forces, historically criticised for excessive force during political crises, may act forcefully, increasing the risk of violent clashes.
Political instability should be expected regardless of the winner. A deeply contested mandate would constrain the next administration’s ability to govern and could delay policy implementation at a time of persistent economic pressure and widespread criminal violence. Hernandez’s pardon may further fuel tensions, particularly if it is perceived as reinforcing entrenched networks of corruption. Without greater transparency and a credible dispute resolution process, the country faces prolonged uncertainty, weakened institutions and heightened polarisation.