Americas: Transport workers launch strike over fuel price hike in Bolivia
Sectors: all; transport
Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest
In Bolivia, on 19 December transport workers launched a strike in response to a 100 per cent fuel price hike ordered by the new government, erecting blockades and shutting down public transportation, bringing La Paz and Santa Cruz to a standstill. Protesters demanded that President Rodrigo Paz’s government revoke the removal of long-standing fuel subsidies announced on 17 December, threatening nationwide protests amid soaring transportation and food prices. The government maintained that the fuel price increase was non-negotiable, instead tasking mayors with negotiating higher urban transport fares with drivers and unions, with President Paz citing the need to stabilise public finances after years of deficits, rising inflation and depleted foreign reserves. The risk of further protests, with the potential to turn violent, and related disruption will remain heightened in the coming weeks.
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Asia Pacific: Officials from Cambodia and Thailand to meet for ceasefire talks on 24 December
Sectors: all
Key Risks: violent clashes; war on land
On 22 December senior diplomats from Thailand and Cambodia confirmed that defence officials would attend talks to re-establish a ceasefire at an ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur on 24 December. The announcement came amid violent clashes along the countries’ disputed international border that have killed over 50 and displaced nearly one million people on both sides since 8 December. The talks are expected to be held through the General Border Committee (GBC), previously established as part of the original 28 July ceasefire secured in Kuala Lumpur. Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow asserted that any new agreement needed a robust implementation plan and meaningful demining efforts with Cambodian participation. Phnom Penh has not announced its aims for the upcoming talks. While de-escalation is likely in the coming days, an overall lack of trust is expected to render any agreement deeply fragile.
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Eurasia: Ukraine strikes Russian ship in Mediterranean; Moscow intensifies attacks on Odesa
Sectors: all; oil and gas; shipping; agriculture
Key Risks: war-at-sea; targeted attacks; business disruptions
On 19 December Ukraine’s drones struck the Russian “shadow fleet” tanker Qendil off the coast of Libya, reportedly causing critical damage. The tanker was sailing empty from India to Russia’s Baltic port of Ust-Luga. Over a dozen Russian-linked tankers have been hit by suspected IED blasts since end-2024, but it was the first drone strike in the Mediterranean Sea since Moscow launched its invasion. The attack came amid Kyiv’s escalating strikes on the shadow fleet in the Black Sea. In response, Moscow has intensified attacks on Ukrainian ports in Odesa Oblast, with eight people killed and 30 others injured in Russian strikes in Odesa on 19 December. On 20 December one worker of Swiss-based vegetable oil producer Allseeds was killed and two others injured after Russian missiles struck storage tanks in the oblast’s Pivdennyi port. Both sides will likely intensify attacks on each other’s commercial and maritime assets.
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Europe: Citizens in Kosovo to head to snap parliamentary vote on 28 December
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; governability
In Kosovo, on 28 December citizens will head to the polls to elect the country’s new parliament. The snap election will follow months of political deadlock after the February parliamentary vote, in which Albin Kurti’s Vetevendosje party won but failed to secure a majority. MPs were unable to elect a parliamentary speaker for more than nine months, prolonging the government formation process, which ultimately collapsed. The political gridlock led to a delay in EUR127m in financial support from the World Bank, of which EUR90m could be terminated if not ratified by parliament by 13 February, increasing the urgency of rapid government formation. While opinion polls are not made public in the country, if Vetevendosje again fails to secure a majority, another deadlock is almost certain, as major opposition parties are expected to refuse cooperation with Kurti. Political instability is expected to remain elevated in the short term.
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MENA: Supreme Judicial Council disarmament push deepens divisions within Iraq’s militias
Sectors: government; security; defence
Key risks: policy uncertainty; terrorism; tribal violence; civil unrest; economic risks
In Iraq, on 20 December Supreme Judicial Council President Faiq Zidan confirmed that several Iranian-backed militia factions had agreed to hand over their weapons to the Iraqi state. Key members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) – Kataib Imam Ali, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada and Ansar al-Awfiya – suggested conditional support. Groups including Kataib Hizbullah and Harak al-Nujaba rejected disarmament outright, conditioning weapons handover on the withdrawal of US, NATO and Turkish forces and framing armed resistance as a sovereignty imperative. On 21 December the Coordination Framework (CF) reported it was seeking international guarantees, including protection for leaders and assets, highlighting concern over compliance and exposure. US pressure is expected to intensify in the coming days, with Washington demanding verifiable, irreversible steps. Intra-Shi’ah friction and limited militia signalling are likely as factions negotiate timelines, guarantees and political trade-offs.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Nine killed in second mass shooting in December in South Africa
Sectors: all; hospitality
Key risks: gang violence
In South Africa, on 21 December nine people were killed and 11 others were injured after 12 unidentified gunmen fired at patrons of an illegal tavern in Bekkersdal, Gauteng province. The attack began at 01:00 local time with the perpetrators firing into an illegal tavern before targeting civilians running from the scene. The attack marked the second mass shooting in December after 11 people were killed and 14 others were injured in a similar shooting in Saulsville, Gauteng province, on 6 December. Due to the links between illegal taverns and violence, the South African Police Services (SAPS) has cracked down on these establishments, with more than 12,000 illegal taverns between April and September 2025. Further crackdowns are highly likely in the coming weeks as SAPS faces growing public pressure to curb murder rates and gang activity in Gauteng province.
Click here to access South Africa’s Global Intake country profile.