Americas: Labour court orders 80 per cent workforce to stay in place in Petrobras strike in Brazil
Sectors: oil and gas; all
Key Risks: industrial action; business disruptions
In Brazil, on 28 December a labour court ordered staffing levels to remain at 80 per cent at all Petrobras facilities amid salary negotiations among the state-run oil company’s workers. The negotiations also include issues regarding pension funds and deductions for pensioner payments. The ruling also bars worker unions from blocking the transportation of workers and equipment to and from facilities. This came after on 26 December the Sindipetro-NF union – representing 25,000 Petrobras workers under Federacao Unica dos Petroleiros (FUP), an umbrella organisation for oil workers – rejected Petrobras’ proposal to end the 12-day long strike. 11 unions approved Petrobras’ compensation proposal, with five groups dissenting, including another umbrella union organisation, FNP, which called the ruling “unenforceable”. Petrobras insisted there has been no impact on production as it relies on contingency crews. With prolonged strikes expected, the risk of disruptions to business operations will be heightened.
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Asia Pacific: Protests set to intensify across Indonesia’s Aceh province
Sectors: all
Key Risks: disruptive unrest; violent clashes; separatism
In Indonesia, on 25 December demonstrations denouncing the government’s ineffective response to deadly floods broke out in cities across Aceh province, including Lhoksukon, Lhokseumawe and the provincial capital Banda Aceh. At least 1,100 people were killed and over 400,000 were displaced after Cyclone Senyar swept through the province on 22 November. Protesters stated that local communities still lacked access to electricity, water, food and medical supplies. Nonetheless, President Prabowo Subianto has refused to declare a national emergency, instead asserting that the situation is “under control”. In Lhokseumawe protesters waved flags of the separatist Free Aceh Movement, which waged an armed insurgency in the province until 2005. While the separatist movement is unlikely to regain traction in the short term, escalating unrest across Aceh province is likely should Jakarta continue to fall short on disaster recovery efforts.
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Eurasia: Trump signals progress towards ending war after meeting Zelensky in Mar-a-Lago
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 28 December US President Donald Trump signalled that he had made strong progress on reaching a peace deal during his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, but that “thorny issues” remained, particularly the future of Ukrainian-controlled parts of the Donbas region that Russia is demanding Kyiv surrender as part of a peace deal. Zelensky stated that security guarantees for Kyiv were agreed, though Trump suggested they were “95 per cent of the way” to a deal. Separately, Moscow rebuked a European-Ukrainian push for a ceasefire before a deal is agreed. Moscow insists it will fully capture Donbas by force if Kyiv does not cede the territory in a deal. Zelensky, meanwhile, has signalled openness to holding post-war presidential elections and a referendum on a peace deal if hostilities cease. Negotiations will intensify as Washington seeks a negotiated solution by year’s end.
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Europe: Bulgaria set to adopt euro on 1 January amid political crisis
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest; governability; economic risks; business risks; corruption
On 1 January Bulgaria will officially adopt the euro as its national currency amid strong public opposition to the move, which critics claim will worsen inflation and undermine sovereignty. Polling shows voters remain polarised, with 49 per cent opposing the move. This comes after mass ‘Gen Z’-led protests over perceived corruption forced Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov’s government to withdraw the draft 2026 budget on 2 November and resign on 11 December. President Rumen Radev has launched consultations in an attempt to form a government, but prospects for a new coalition deal remain slim, making snap elections increasingly likely. There have also been recurring protests – occasionally turning violent – by right-wing groups opposed to Eurozone accession over the past year. Euro adoption will likely benefit businesses but risks fuelling public discontent and civil unrest amid a prolonged political deadlock following numerous inconclusive elections.
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MENA: Three killed, 60 injured in Alawite-led protests amid rising sectarian in Syria
Sectors: all
Key risks: communal violence; governability; violent clashes; separatism
In Syria, on 28 December at least three people were killed and 60 injured during Alawite-led protests in Latakia, Latakia province. Authorities blamed former president Bashar al-Assad’s loyalists for attacking security forces, while other reports cited clashes between protesters and government supporters. This happened after on 26 December at least eight people were killed and 18 were injured in an explosion at a mosque in a predominantly Alawite neighbourhood in Homs, Homs province. The “Flood of Dignity” protests, called by Alawite religious authorities, condemned the mosque bombing and demanded justice, federalism and an end to sectarian violence, which has been targeting the Alawite community since al-Assad’s ouster in December 2024. The government is expected to maintain a non-conciliatory stance toward the Alawite minority, firmly rejecting any form of provincial autonomy. Renewed protests and an increased risk of clashes with security forces remain likely.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: US launches airstrikes on IS targets in northwest Nigeria
Sectors: all
Key risks: targeted attacks; regional escalation
In Nigeria, on 25 December the US announced it launched 16 missiles against Islamic State (IS) positions, likely Lakurawa bases in Tangaza Local Government Area (LGA), Sokoto state. Officials stated that Abuja shared intelligence with the US prior to the airstrikes, although some reports suggest the US strikes were unilateral. US President Donald Trump stated that further strikes would occur if militants continued to target Christians in the northwest of the country. US military action in the country has also further fueled debates internally over major security reforms as northern states continue to face growing insecurity. While some lawmakers welcome US strikes, others raised major questions on the implications of US action on Nigerian sovereignty. President Bola Tinubu will likely face increased pressure to implement security reforms and bolster military operations. Further missile strikes are likely, with Abuja looking to facilitate US-Nigerian security cooperation.
Click here to access Nigeria’s Global Intake country profile.