Americas: Acting president signals cooperation after US threatens further strikes in Venezuela
Sectors: all; oil and gas
Key Risks: Political stability; government instability; policy uncertainty; civil unrest; regional escalation
In Venezuela, on 4 January acting president Delcy Rodriguez signalled a willingness to cooperate with Washington, prioritising “peace and dialogue”, though the legitimacy of her leadership is unrecognised internationally following the 3 January US operation that captured deposed president Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is scheduled to appear in a US court on narcoterrorism charges on 5 January. The US has warned Caracas that non-compliance could trigger additional strikes, keeping the country’s stability and oil sector under close scrutiny. The operation involved air strikes, explosions in multiple neighbourhoods, and over 150 aircraft, drawing international condemnation as a breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Trump also threatened Colombia, described Cuba as vulnerable and warned Mexico over drug trafficking, highlighting escalating regional tensions. Political stability risks will remain high in Venezuela, while broader diplomatic and security challenges persist across Latin America.
Click here to access Venezuela’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Government to propose key reforms at next parliamentary session in Malaysia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty
In Malaysia, on 5 January Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced that the government would propose the implementation of key reforms, including a two-term limit on the premiership. The reforms, a key campaign promise for Anwar, came amid declining support for the ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, which experienced key electoral setbacks in Sabah state’s 30 November local election. The reforms are likely an effort to revitalise support among the PH’s core support base, amid a reshuffle in the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition’s leadership. The PN is likely to nominate the Parti Islam se Malaysia (PAS) as its new leader following former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s 30 December resignation from the chairman position, potentially appealing more broadly to Muslim communities. The reforms are expected to be introduced to parliament at its next session by 31 January.
Click here to access Malaysia’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Zelensky to meet European leaders in Paris as Ukraine peace talks continue
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 6 January Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to meet European leaders from the “Coalition of the Willing” in Paris for further talks on reaching a deal to end the war in Ukraine. This came after on 28 December US President Donald Trump signalled strong progress during his meeting with Zelensky in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, but added that “thorny issues” remained – particularly the future of Ukrainian-controlled parts of the Donbas region that Moscow is demanding Kyiv surrender. Tensions flared after on 29 December Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Ukrainian drones attacked his Valdai presidential residence in the northern Novgorod Oblast. Ukrainian and US officials subsequently dismissed the allegations as false. Moscow threatened to revise its peace talks stance in response and will likely intensify attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Diplomatic efforts – focusing on territory and security guarantees for Kyiv – will accelerate in the coming days.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Investigation into undersea cable damage to continue in Latvia
Sectors: maritime; shipping; telecommunications
Key Risks: sabotage
In Latvia, on 5 January investigators found no evidence connecting a vessel docked at Liepaja port to the 2 January damage of an undersea telecoms cable in the Baltic Sea. The investigators boarded the vessel – whose name was not publicly disclosed. According to MarimeTraffic data, four ships were crossing the cable – running between the country and Lithuania – at the time of the incident. Investigations into the incident will continue in the coming days as it comes amid heightened tensions in the Baltic Sea. On 31 December 2025 police in Finland seized a vessel on suspicion of sabotaging an undersea telecoms cable. On 5 January the police announced that the vessel’s anchor dragged along the seabed “at least several tens of kilometres”. This followed a string of similar incidents in late 2024, which were later assessed as likely accidental. Further such incidents cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access Latvia’s and here to access Finland’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Nationwide protests expand in Iran amid economic collapse and regional tensions
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest; governance; political violence; arbitrary arrests; violent clashes; economic risks; regional escalation
In Iran, on 4 January at least 16 people were killed and 170 arrested nationwide as anti-government protests entered their eighth day following strikes beginning on 28 December 2025 over economic injustice. President Masoud Pezeshkian pledged a “friendly and responsible” approach toward protesters and acknowledged public hardship. Meanwhile, on 2 January US President Donald Trump threatened intervention if peaceful protesters were killed, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly voiced support for Iranian citizens. Protests and violent clashes with security forces are expected to continue in the short term, particularly around Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz. The risk of regional diplomatic fallout is heightened by hostile US and Israeli rhetoric and reciprocal Iranian warnings, increasing volatility in the country and broader region. The US and Israel could potentially exploit the unrest to advance their regional objectives, including renewed pressure or limited confrontation with Tehran.
Click here to access Iran’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: SPLA-IO advances increase risk of renewed civil war in South Sudan
Sectors: all
Key risks: political violence; communal violence; civil war
In South Sudan, on 2 January the Sudan People’s Liberation Army – In Opposition (SPLA-IO), supported by the ethnic Nuer White Army militia, captured a military base in Yuai, Jonglei state. This followed the SPLA-IO’s capture of Waat military base, Jonglei state, on 24 December 2025. SPLA-IO advances threaten the military’s wider position in Jonglei state, which saw major fighting between March and August 2025. The military issued a warning for civilians to leave SPLA-IO-controlled areas on 30 December 2025, indicating preparations for military counter-offensives in the near future. The lack of diplomatic avenues for resolving ongoing disputes between the SPLA-IO and Juba, particularly due to SPLA-IO’s political arm leader Riek Machar’s ongoing trial, likely means that clashes will continue to escalate in Jonglei state, with fighting elsewhere increasingly likely as political disputes will continue to escalate into conflict ahead of planned elections in December 2026.
Click here to access South Sudan’s Global Intake country profile.