Americas: Disputes between gangs to intensify after human heads found hanging in Ecuador
Sectors: all
Key Risks: violent clashes; gang violence
In Ecuador, on 11 January five human heads were found hanging from ropes, with a warning sign next to them directed at alleged extortionists of fishermen, at a beach in the fishing port of Puerto Lopez, Manabi province. Police believe the attack to be linked to disputes over drug trafficking routes and territory between criminal groups with ties to transnational cartels active in the area that have used fishermen and their small boats for illicit activities. This came after on 1 January six people were killed and 10 others were injured in a shooting attack in Manta, Manabi province – also linked to organised crime. Recent incidents highlight the country’s deepening security crisis as violence has persisted despite a state of emergency, which was first declared in January 2024 in nine out of 24 provinces. Given the fragmentation of criminal groups vying for control of illicit economies, the risk of violence is expected to remain high.
Click here to access Ecuador’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Japan considers snap elections in February amid high LDP approval ratings
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty
In Japan, on 12 January government sources reported that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was considering the dissolution of the House of Representatives to call for a snap general election. Takaichi is aiming to expand the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Ishin coalition partner’s currently thin majority of just seven seats in parliament. If confirmed, the election would be the country’s third since 2021. Unlike previous general elections, the 2026 election would come amid high approval ratings of approximately 70 per cent for the coalition amid ongoing diplomatic tensions with Beijing. However, an empowered LDP is likely to add to the country’s government debt to support expansionary budget policies and expensive stimulus packages. Takaichi is expected to make a final decision by 20 January with the election itself reportedly expected to be held on either 8 or 15 February.
Click here to access Japan’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Ukraine’s energy blackouts worsen as Russia intensifies attacks on power facilities
Sectors: all; energy
Key Risks: war-on-land; targeted attacks
In Ukraine, on 11 January Zaporizhzhia Oblast and parts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were left without power in an overnight Russian drone and missile attack – the second region-wide outage in a week. Regional officials had warned of a “national emergency” after a previous Russian barrage on 7 January left over a million households without power in the two oblasts. Separately, on 10 January local authorities reported that power was restored to most households in Kyiv after the capital suffered widespread power, heating and water cuts following a massive Russian attack on 9 January. Four people were killed, 25 were injured and the Qatar Embassy was struck in Kyiv in the 9 January attack. Moscow launched 242 drones and 36 missiles countrywide, including the second-ever use of the Oreshnik hypersonic missile at unspecified energy targets in western Ukraine. Further widespread blackouts are likely as Moscow intensifies its attacks.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: More protests likely in response to EU approval of historic Mercosur free trade deal
Sectors: all; agriculture
Key Risks: disruptive unrest; economic risks; business risks; political stability
On 9 January EU member states voted to approve a historic free trade deal with the Mercosur bloc – including Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil, Argentina and Bolivia – that would create one of the world’s biggest free trade zones and lift nearly all tariffs on a market of 700 million people. France and Poland led a minority of states refusing to back the deal amid widespread protests by farmers, who fear it will prompt an influx of cheap goods and damage their business. Signing the deal – reached in December 2024 following 25 years of negotiations – was delayed in December 2025 amid internal opposition. Fresh farmers’ protests broke out in Ireland and France on 10 January despite governments offering concessions to mitigate the deal’s possible impacts. The deal will still need to be approved by the European Parliament and ratified by Mercosur members. Further disruptive protests are likely in response to the deal’s signing.
Click here to access France’s and here to access Ireland’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: US considers military options against Iran as crackdown on protesters intensifies
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; disruptive unrest; political violence; regional conflict
In Iran, on 12 January the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported that at least 572 people have been killed and more than 10,600 detained since demonstrations over economic hardships began on 28 December 2025. Following an internet and telecommunications blackout imposed by Iranian authorities on 8 January – which remains in place – the crackdown on protesters intensified dramatically. US President Donald Trump stated Iran wants to negotiate with Washington after he threatened to strike the country over Tehran’s repression of protesters. However, reports emerged stating that the US national security team is currently weighing options, including cyberattacks and US or Israeli strikes on Iran, with Tehran warning on 11 January that US military bases and Israel would be “legitimate targets” if force was used to protect demonstrators. While Tehran has indicated that a channel with Washington remains open, direct US intervention in Iran cannot be excluded.
Click here to access Iran’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Four kidnapped in JNIM attacks on three industrial sites in western Mali
Sectors: all: construction
Key risks: targeted attacks; business disruptions; insurgency; economic
In Mali, on 11 January at least four workers were kidnapped and material damage was reported during Jama’at Nasr al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) attacks on three industrial sites in Bafoualbe cercle, Kayes region. Between 150 and 200 militants reportedly targeted the Indian-owned Diamond Cement factory in Gangontery as well as a limestone factory in Karaga and a tile factory in Gouroundape. Attacks on commercial sites continue to increase as JNIM sustains its economic war against the government. Likely spurred by the inability of the militant group to maintain a fuel blockade on the capital, JNIM attacks on mining sites, foreign-owned factories and key sites for domestic production are a more direct attack against Bamako’s revenues and undermine investor confidence in an already-unstable environment. Further JNIM attacks on businesses are likely, with Bamako facing greater scrutiny over its capability to defend key economic sites.
Click here to access Mali’s Global Intake country profile.