Americas: Guatemala declares state of emergency after seven police officers killed in prison riots
Sectors: all
Key Risks: gang violence
In Guatemala, on 18 January President Bernardo Arevalo’s government declared a nationwide 30-day state of emergency and retook control over two prisons and freed 34 guards. This came after at least seven police officers and one gang member were killed, 10 police officers were injured and 46 prison guards and staff were taken hostage in three prison riots across the country on 17 January. The killings took place in retaliation for authorities regaining control of the first prison, Renovacion 1, in Escuintla, Escuintla department, on 17 January, leading to the initial release of nine hostages. Authorities blamed the riots on the Barrio18 gang – designated as a foreign terrorist organisation by Washington in September 2024 – which demanded greater privileges for its leaders, including Aldo Duppie, alias El Lobo. The risk of retaliatory violence, including against civilians, will be heightened in the short term.
Click here to access Guatemala’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Philippine President Marcos Jr. to face impeachment motion
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty; political polarisation
In the Philippines, on 19 January opposition lawmakers filed an impeachment motion against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Deputy Minority Leader Jernie Jett Nisay stated that Marcos had “breached public trust” by authorising the arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte, and received kickbacks from the country’s flood project corruption scandal, ongoing since September 2025. The filing is the first major challenge to Marcos’ administration since his inauguration in 2022. Presidential Communications Office Secretary Dave Gomez asserted that Marcos did not receive embezzled money from infrastructure fraud and had adhered to international commitments regarding Duterte’s arrest. The motion is unlikely to succeed given the supermajority of 253 of 318 seats held by the ruling Partido Federal ng Pilipinas (PFP) and its allies in the House of Representatives. The impeachment’s initial proceedings are expected to be launched no sooner than 20 January.
Click here to access the Philippines’ Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Kazakhstan requests Western help to secure its oil export lifeline after Ukrainian attacks
Sectors: all; energy
Key Risks: war-at-sea; targeted attacks; economic risks; business risks; supply chain disruptions
On 15 January Kazakhstan reportedly appealed for US and European help in securing its primary oil export corridor following repeated Ukrainian attacks. This came after on 13 January three Greek-operated tankers heading to pick up Kazakh oil at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)’s terminal near Russia’s Novorossiysk port were struck by suspected Ukrainian drones. On 29 November 2025 Ukrainian drones also damaged the terminal’s offshore loading point – which handles 80 per cent of Kazakh oil exports, mostly destined for Europe – cutting the terminal’s capacity by 50 per cent. Astana’s oil and gas condensate production fell by 35 per cent between 1 January and 12 January compared to December 2025’s average levels as a result of the damage. Delays in repairing the terminal and delivering new loading units will likely mean a sustained drop in Kazakh oil exports in Q1. Further such attacks are likely.
Click here to access Kazakhstan’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: US threatens tariffs on European countries over Greenland; EU to suspend trade deal
Sectors: all
Key Risks: regional conflict; economic risks; business risks
On 17 January US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries – Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK – until the US was allowed to purchase Greenland. 10 per cent tariffs would come into effect on 1 February and rise to 25 per cent on 1 June. The move marks a sharp escalation of Trump’s demands to acquire the autonomous Danish island. EU lawmakers announced plans to suspend the approval of a US-EU free trade deal and are considering retaliatory measures. On 14 January Danish and Greenlandic officials agreed to form a working group with Washington to discuss Greenland’s future while condemning Trump’s continued demands to “conquer” Greenland and refusal to rule out military force. Trump claims the territory is vital for US national security due to threats from Russia and China. Tensions will remain high.
Click here to access Denmark’s and here to access the US’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: SAF and SDF agree to a ceasefire in Syria; several violations reported since
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil war; political impasse; government instability; violent clashes; targeted attacks; tribal violence
In Syria, on 18 January the Syrian Armed Forces (SAF) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed to an immediate ceasefire after days of fighting in northeastern provinces. The deal included the withdrawal of SDF forces east of the Euphrates and the integration of units into the Defence and Interior Ministries. Damascus will assume full control over Dayr al-Zur and Ar Raqqa provinces, including border crossings and oil and gas fields. Despite the agreement, on 19 January SDF reported renewed clashes in Ain Issa, Ar Raqqa province and Ash Shaddadah, al-Hasakah province, particularly around al-Aqtan Prison holding Islamic State (IS) detainees. Authorities in Cizire Canton, al-Hasakah province, declared mobilisation to repel potential SAF attacks. Clashes are unlikely to abate over the next week, with Tishreen Dam, Ar Raqqa and border areas emerging as potential hotspots. The ongoing IS threat could further destabilise the country.
Click here to access Syria’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Seven soldiers killed in Sudan-based RSF incursion into Chad
Sectors: all
Key risks: accidental conflict; regional tensions;
In Chad, on 15 January several Chadian soldiers were killed in clashes with the Sudan-based Rapid Support Forces in the town of Tina, which straddles the border of Chad and Sudan. RSF units were reportedly pursuing the Darfuri Joint Force (DJF), who are allied with the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), when they attacked the Chadian-garrisoned Birak military camp in Tina. This was the second recorded incident of Sudanese attacks on Chadian military positions after two Chadian soldiers were killed in a drone attack on Tine-Djagaraba in Chad’s Wadi Fira region on 26 December 2025. The 15 January RSF attack will inflame relations with Chad, which plays a key role in supporting the UAE in supplying the RSF via the border town of Arde, Ouaddai region. In addition, SAF and pro-SAF activity will continue to destabilise the border areas with Chad, raising the risk of external conflict and increased Chadian involvement in the civil war.
Click here to access Chad’s and here to access Sudan’s Global Intake country profile.