Americas: Right-wing populist Fernandez wins presidential election in Costa Rica
Sectors: all
Key Risks: policy continuity
In Costa Rica, on 2 February right-wing populist Laura Fernandez of the Sovereign People’s Party won the 1 February presidential election with 48.3 per cent of the vote based on 94 per cent of ballots counted. Fernandez’s rival, Alvaro Ramos of the National Liberation Party, conceded defeat as the results exceeded the 40 per cent threshold needed to avoid a runoff election. The race was widely seen as a referendum on President Rodrigo Chaves’ tough-on-crime agenda, which Fernandez has pledged to continue by enacting stricter criminal sentences and constructing a maximum-security prison. Chaves presided over a sharp rise in violence, which he has blamed on the judiciary. While Fernandez’s party is expected to make gains in the 1 February legislative election for the 57-seat National Assembly, it is unlikely to secure a supermajority necessary to amend the constitution to allow Chaves to seek re-election.
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Asia Pacific: People’s Party projected to win Thailand’s 8 February general election
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political uncertainty; political stability; regulatory changes
In Thailand, on 30 January surveys conducted by Suan Dusit University indicated that the People’s Party (PP), led by Nattaphong Ruengpanyawut, emerged as the frontrunner in the upcoming general election on 8 February. The PP is a progressive party seeking to expand democratic participation, police reform and technological development. Polls indicated that approximately 35 per cent of those surveyed supported the PP. Despite its relative popularity, it is unlikely that the PP will form a government on its own and is instead expected to form a coalition to secure a parliamentary majority. PP is likely to ally with Pheu Thai given both parties’ goal to enact reforms limiting Senators’ influence in constitutional amendments. However, military intervention in public affairs – including a possible coup d’etat – cannot be ruled out if the coalition is viewed as too radical by Bangkok’s monarchy.
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Eurasia: Power cuts hit Ukraine, Moldova; 12 killed in Dnipro as Russian strikes resume
Sectors: all; energy
Key Risks: war-on-land; targeted attacks
In Ukraine, on 1 February at least 12 people were killed and several others injured after a Russian drone struck a bus transporting mining workers in Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The latest strike came as a moratorium to halt strikes on energy facilities – agreed with Russia at US President Donald Trump’s request on 30 January – came to an end. Despite the weekend ceasefire, on 31 January emergency power cuts hit Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and the Zhytomyr and Kharkiv Oblasts, as well as parts of Moldova, including the capital Chisinau. The cuts were prompted by a technical malfunction affecting the two countries’ power links. Ukraine has struggled to repair its energy system amid repeated Russian attacks over the preceding weeks, with authorities warning of the most severe energy crisis since 2022. Further attacks are likely despite a fresh round of talks scheduled for 4-5 February.
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Europe: Germany’s transport workers launch massive strike, causing disruptions countrywide
Sectors: all; transport
Key Risks: industrial action; disruptive unrest
In Germany, on 2 February tens of thousands of transport workers joined a strike called by major union Verdi, causing significant disruptions to rail, bus and tram services in cities countrywide. The strike – one of the biggest in recent years – was called on 30 January after tense talks with municipal and state employers stalled over working conditions. Strikes affected around 150 municipal transport firms in all but one of 16 federal states, including Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen. Unions are demanding shorter shifts, longer rest breaks and higher pay for night and weekend work, but local authorities are struggling with budgetary constraints. Union leaders warned that further strikes would follow if employers did not offer significant concessions. Further disruptive strikes cannot be ruled out ahead of the next round of talks on 9 February.
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MENA: Iran signals openness to US talks amid military buildup in the region
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional escalation; regional conflict
In Iran, on 2 February Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi signalled that negotiations with the US over a potential nuclear agreement were progressing, praising neighbouring states for sustaining dialogue channels. Aragchi stressed Iran expects sanctions relief and recognition of its right to peaceful uranium enrichment, warning talks must avoid “impossible” demands such as dismantling its missile programme. The remarks came as Washington increased military deployments to the Middle East and intensified threat rhetoric. Washington outlined conditions for easing sanctions, including halting Iran’s nuclear programme, surrendering enriched uranium stockpiles, dismantling long-range ballistic missiles and ending support for Iranian-backed regional proxies. Indirect talks are likely to accelerate in the coming days, but conflicting red lines will ultimately delay progress. Tehran is expected to stall and make no significant concessions. Elevated US military posturing increases the risk of a confrontation even if negotiations advance.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: 24 killed, 11 arrested as Islamic State claims attack on Niger’s capital
Sectors: all; aviation
Key risks: insurgency; targeted attacks; terrorism
In Niger, on 29 January four soldiers and 20 militants were killed, and 11 militants were arrested during an attack by Islamic State (IS) on Diori Hamani International Airport in the capital Niamey. Armed drones and mortars were reportedly used during the assault, which began at 00:12 local time. IS claimed the attack, with some reports suggesting that fighters were drawn from IS-Sahel Province (IS-SP) and IS-West Africa Province (IS-WAP). Despite the assault being repelled in less than an hour, it was a major escalation by IS-SP following intensifying activity in the Tillaberi region since December 2025. Major questions will be raised over security protocols in the capital city following prior concerns due to an IS-linked kidnapping of a US national in November 2025. Heightened security measures and reforms are highly likely in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Niger’s Global Intake country profile.