Date first published: 29/01/2026
Key sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political violence; political stability
Risk development
On 22 January Chief of Defence and son of President Yoweri Museveni, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, claimed that 30 people were killed and 2,000 were arrested around the 15 January election period. Kainerugaba’s inflammatory posts on X (formerly Twitter) described opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) members as “terrorists” and stated that all party leaders are being targeted for arrest by security forces. Opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, better known as Bobi Wine, alleged that the military made three raids on his home following the elections, and assaulted his wife on 24 January.
Why it matters
No explanation of the military’s manhunt for NUP leaders – including Kyagulanyi, currently in hiding – has been provided following the seventh election victory for Museveni, and officially his largest by popular vote. Kainerugaba was instrumental in imposing an internet shutdown and mobilising law enforcement prior to the vote. The recurring trend of opposition persecution, with Museveni’s son now leading the efforts, has brought to the forefront discussions about succession planning and his potential ascent to president. Kainerugaba’s reputation for being impulsive poses greater concern in an increasingly volatile neighbourhood.
Under Kainerugaba’s control, Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) troops are stationed in South Sudan, which is teetering towards civil war, while the UPDF’s ongoing combat with the rising Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) insurgency in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is overshadowed by a Rwanda-backed rebellion in the DRC’s east. In neighbouring Kenya and Tanzania, youth-led protests aimed to challenge the status quo and catalyse political upheaval, with grievances left unaddressed. Similar sentiments are rising in opposition to Museveni’s 40-year reign, with even less appetite among Uganda’s youth for a political dynasty should Kainerugaba take over from his father.
Background
The suppression of opposition figures, a wave of youth-driven demonstrations in neighbouring countries and Museveni’s taunting of Uganda’s young population set the tone for the election. The detention and subsequent medical neglect of Museveni’s rival, Kizza Besigye, left Kyagulanyi as his sole competitor. The NUP’s groundswell of support posed a more significant challenge to the president’s leadership, evolving from a relatively unknown quantity to Museveni during the 2021 vote to his only credible challenger in 2026. This elicited a defensive response from the government to ensure Museveni retained the presidency in a controversial election amid voting irregularities.
Risk outlook
The short-term risks of civil unrest have been lowered following a swift and heavy-handed response to anti-government activists, undermining any protest momentum. If the treatment of Kyagulanyi and voters – orchestrated by Kainerugaba – are harbingers of life under his rule, opposition crackdowns could get harsher and reactions to them more volatile. Any internal challenges will likely be neutralised. The Special Forces Command (SFC) unit operating in parallel to the military, designed to protect Museveni and expanded significantly under his son’s command between 2008 and 2022 – including pay rises of up to 300 per cent – will likely remain loyal to the family.
Public condemnation to Museveni’s rule will likely remain confined to debates and online discourse following the election, reducing the immediate risk of protests. However, opposition to his leadership will persist as voters harbour negative feelings towards the ruling class. Their concerns will likely continue to go unrecognised, further deteriorating the public’s relationship with the president. Succession planning involving Kainerugaba is likely to increase civil unrest risks over the intermediate term, as there remains no likely alternative at the moment.