Americas: Congress in Peru to debate motion to remove President Jeri
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest; government instability
In Peru, on 13 February the head of Congress, Fernando Rospigliosi, announced a special plenary session for 17 February to debate a motion to remove President Jose Jeri. This came as Jeri’s tenure has become embroiled in political scandals, including undisclosed meetings with Chinese businessmen Zhihua Yang and Jiwu Xiaodong, as well as the irregular hiring of several women in his administration and awarded contracts, which are now under investigation by the public prosecutor for potential influence peddling and bribery. Jeri – who has dismissed the accusations – assumed office in October 2025 after former president Dina Boluarte was impeached for “moral incapacity” amid escalating insecurity in the country. The move underscores political instability, with seven presidents sworn in since 2016, and comes ahead of the upcoming 12 April presidential elections. Political instability and civil unrest risks will be elevated in the short to medium term.
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Asia Pacific: Malaysia to launch graft probe against anti-corruption chief
Sectors: financial services
Key Risks: civil unrest; regulatory changes
In Malaysia, on 15 February hundreds of people marched against the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) Chief Commissioner Azam Baki in the capital Kuala Lumpur. On 10 February reports emerged that Azam had allegedly engaged in abuse of power by owning over 17 million shares in financial services company Velocity Capital Partner Berhad, an amount roughly eight times above the legal limit for civil servants to own. Protesters stated that Azam’s actions “cannot be ignored”. Azam has denied wrongdoing and refused to resign, but accepted cooperation with a government probe announced on 14 February. On 16 February Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar warned against “betrayals of public trust” and affirmed that “nobody is above the law”. Continued, albeit peaceful, protests are likely in the coming weeks, while regulatory changes targeting civil servants’ ownership of company shares cannot be ruled out in the longer term.
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Eurasia: US and Armenia sign civil nuclear deal; Kyrgyz President Japarov fires ally in growing rift
Sectors: all; energy
Key Risks: economic risks; business risks; political stability
In Armenia, on 10 February Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and US Vice President JD Vance signed an agreement on civil nuclear cooperation, enabling up to US$5bln in initial US exports to Yerevan and another US$4bln in longer-term fuel and maintenance contracts. Vance’s visit to Yerevan was the first by a sitting US president or VP. The deal marked a milestone for Pashinyan’s efforts to diversify away from reliance on Russia and signalled a growing US presence in the region. Separately, in Kyrgyzstan, President Sadyr Japarov dismissed his long-time ally, head of the State Committee for National Security and Deputy Prime Minister Kamchybek Tashiev, to “prevent division in society, including between government agencies”. Japarov and Tashiev rose to power amid a wave of protests over alleged election interference in 2020. The move signals a growing intra-elite divide that could challenge Japarov’s rule.
Click here to access Armenia’s and here to access Kyrgyzstan’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: US officials seek to reassure European allies at Munich summit but tensions remain
Sectors: all;
Key Risks: regional escalation
In Germany, on 13-15 February world leaders gathered for the annual Munich Security Conference (MSC), where US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sought to reassure European allies that Washington would remain a vital partner for them. His tone contrasted with US Vice President JD Vance’s remarks at the 2025 MSC, in which he sharply criticised European leaders for their migration and climate policies, as well as an alleged crackdown on political freedoms. However, Rubio’s remarks echoed similar narratives and failed to reassure European allies of a growing rift within the NATO alliance. On 9 February reports emerged that Washington plans to transfer control of two NATO command posts in Naples, Italy and Norfolk, US, to European officers as Washington demands greater involvement from European allies. Sharp ideological differences and unilateral US demands – including gaining control of Greenland – will continue to strain Trans-Atlantic relations.
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MENA: Iran reiterates openness to economic discussions ahead of Geneva talks
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional escalation; regional conflict
In Iran, on 15 February Tehran reiterated it would not compromise on uranium enrichment but indicated that oil and gas, mining and aircraft deals are now open for discussion ahead of the second round of indirect talks with the US, scheduled to take place in Geneva on 17 February. The shift followed US President Donald Trump’s 13 February statement that regime change would be the “best thing” as well as reports of US preparations for a weeks-long operation. On 16 February the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating readiness amid escalating US deployment, including a second aircraft carrier strike group. Limited engagement on economic sectors may reduce pressure in the short term, but Tehran is expected to stall on substantive concessions. If US military posturing continues and talks fail, the risk of miscalculation and escalation remains high.
Click here to access Iran’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Amhara and Tigray region tensions threaten civil conflict in Ethiopia
Sectors: all
Key risks: separatism; political violence; communal violence; regional tensions; regional conflict; civil war
In Ethiopia, on 10 February Amhara separatist group, the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), captured multiple districts, including Debre Tabor, Amhara region, following military withdrawals from those areas between 7 and 10 February. This marked the largest gains by Amhara separatists since the insurgency began in 2023. Addis Ababa has responded with drone strikes on Debre Tabor since 10 February. Separately, on 9 February the separatist Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) claimed that Addis Ababa was preparing for future operations in the Tigray region. Developments in Amhara and Tigray regions continue to destabilise the north of the country, with Addis Ababa’s accusation of Eritrean involvement threatening a regional conflict. Worsening tensions with the TPLF, an ongoing separatist offensive in Amhara region and poor diplomatic relations with neighbouring Eritrea will likely increase external conflict and internal conflict risks in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Ethiopia’s Global Intake country profile.