Americas: Senate approves historic labour reform in Argentina
Sectors: all
Key Risks: disruptive unrest; industrial action; business disruptions
In Argentina, on 27 February the Senate approved President Javier Milei’s historic labour reform with 42 votes in favour, 28 against and two abstentions. The legislation – altering the country’s 50-year-old labour code – modernises labour relations, lowers labour costs and limits the historic power of unions, but has been criticised for easing hiring and firing rules, cutting severance pay and limiting striking rights. The legislative process has been fraught with tensions as the General Confederation of Labor union launched a 24-hour general strike on 19 February. Following the bill’s passage, teachers’ unions announced a 24-hour strike in 15 out of 16 provinces, while universities have called for a full week of strikes. While seen as a sign of political backing for Milei’s free-market agenda, as it is expected to attract foreign investment, further disruptive strikes can be expected.
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Asia Pacific: Philippine House of Representatives initiates impeachment against Sara Duterte
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest; political polarisation; government instability
In the Philippines, on 2 March the House of Representatives initiated impeachment proceedings against Sara Duterte, who declared on 18 February her intention to run for president in 2028. The case focuses on claims that she misused public funds and issued death threats towards President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. This marks the second bid to impeach her, following the dismissal of the 2025 on procedural grounds. As Sara Duterte’s popularity has strengthened and although President Marcos has sufficient influence to advance the processes, the probability of a Senate conviction is considerably lower. This reflects the stringent two-thirds threshold and senators’ reluctance to disqualify a popular presidential contender. The process is likely to heighten polarisation and potentially cause sporadic disruptions in key cities. However, widespread civil unrest is unlikely unless Duterte is convicted.
Click here to access the Philippines’ Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Russia agrees on US security guarantees for Ukraine; hardens line on territorial control
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war on land
In Ukraine, on 28 February President Volodymyr Zelensky’s head of office Kyrylo Budanov stated that Moscow had indicated it would accept Washington’s proposal for Kyiv’s post-war security guarantees, adding that negotiations over security guarantees saw the most progress during the latest round of negotiations. Separately, Bloomberg reported that Moscow would halt peace talks unless Kyiv agreed to cede territory in Donbas, highlighting that territorial control remains a key sticking point. The next round of talks was planned for early March in Abu-Dhabi, although the timing and location will likely need to be reassessed due to the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East. The US is increasing pressure as US President Donald Trump aims for a deal by June ahead of the US midterms in November and the US’s 250th anniversary on 4 July. Despite the pressure and progress on security guarantees, a peace agreement remains highly uncertain.
Click here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Risk of Iranian attacks on military bases in Cyprus increased
Sectors: defence
Key Risks: war on land; regional escalation; regional conflict
In Cyprus, on 1 March an Iranian drone struck the UK’s RAF Akrotiri base amid regional escalation in the Middle East following US-Israeli strikes on Iran that began on 28 February. The attack caused no injuries and “minimal” damage but prompted partial evacuation of the base, with family members of the military personnel moved to a nearby village. The attacks came as UK PM Keir Starmer stated that the UK would allow the US to use its airbases to launch defensive strikes on Iran, although the country would not get directly involved. In response to the incident, Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias stated Athens would immediately deploy two frigates and a pair of F-16 fighter jets to protect the island. According to Iranian media, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened further strikes on bases in Cyprus, suggesting the risk of further strikes will remain heightened in the coming days.
Click here to access Cyprus’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Israel, US launch major attack on Iran
Sectors: all
Key risks: war-on-land; regional escalation; regional conflcit
In the Middle East, on 28 February Israel launched strikes against Iran, triggering a wave of retaliatory attacks and pushing the region into conflict. The US confirmed its participation, with President Donald Trump indicating that Washington aims to eliminate Iran’s nuclear programme, navy and proxies and is calling for regime change. Iran launched retaliatory strikes against targets across the region, including in Israel, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan and Iraq. In the following days, Iran increasingly targeted commercial assets, including airports, hotels and oil and gas infrastructure, signalling a shift in strategy from symbolic retaliation to economic coercion. Iranian officials also confirmed the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in an Israeli strike on 28 February which prompted several proxies, including Iraqi militias and the Lebanese Hizbullah, to join the conflict. President Donald Trump stated that the campaign could last up to four weeks. Diplomatic engagement remains unlikely in the immediate phase. The coming period is therefore likely to be defined by intermittent infrastructure targeting, maritime disruption and proxy mobilisation.
Click here to access Iran’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: 169 killed in communal violence as clashes increase in South Sudan
Sectors: all; NGO and media
Key risks: communal violence; political violence; violent clashes
In South Sudan, on 1 March at least 79 soldiers and 90 civilians were killed and 50 others were injured in an attack by unidentified assailants in Abiemnhom, Ruweng Administrative Area (RAA). The attack reportedly lasted for four hours before the security forces repelled the assailants. Abiemnhom country, RAA, experienced a wave of violence 48 hours prior to the attack. RAA and the wider northeast of the country have experienced continued instability following the launch of military operations against the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Army – In Opposition (SPLA-IO) on 25 January. Several UN bodies and NGOs either ceased operations or evacuated staff, with MSF reporting that 26 of its staff remained missing since operations began. Further violence in the northeast is likely to continue as rebel groups, communal militias and the military continue to engage in clashes, with civilians and NGO workers highly likely to suffer the brunt of the escalating conflict.
Click here to access South Sudan’s Global Intake country profile.