Date first published: 05/03/2026
Key sectors: all
Key risks: gang violence; violent clashes; disruptive unrest; business disruptions; targeted attacks
Risk development
On 22 February Nemesio Oseguera, alias “El Mencho”, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), died in custody after being injured in a United States (US)-assisted military operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco state. The operation involved air force and special forces units, supported by intelligence from the US Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel. Four CJNG members were killed, five others – including three soldiers – were injured, and two cartel members were arrested. Weapons, armoured vehicles and rocket launchers were seized. Oseguera had been a top US security target, facing multiple indictments and a US$15m bounty.
In response, from 22 to 23 February suspected CJNG loyalists launched coordinated reprisals across at least 20 states, including highway blockades, vehicle burnings and attacks on retail and financial security forces’ assets. Targets included federal highways, major transport corridors, convenience stores (notably Oxxo), banks, pharmacies and gas stations. Jalisco, Guanajuato and Michoacan experienced the highest concentration of attacks. The unrest prompted school closures in Guadalajara and flight cancellations to and from Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara. By 23 February authorities reported clearing 90 per cent of the 250 blockades that had disrupted road transport.
Why it matters
The retaliatory violence demonstrated the capacity of powerful cartels to threaten business continuity, economic activity and critical supply chains. By generating operational disruptions, financial losses and wider economic effects, the unrest exposed vulnerabilities for businesses reliant on transport corridors, fixed-site retail assets and international travel. Several sectors were affected, particularly transport and logistics, retail, financial services and aviation.
The operation against “El Mencho” followed sustained pressure from the US, including tariff threats and statements by US President Donald Trump suggesting potential unilateral military action. Washington has urged President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration to intensify counter-cartel operations as part of its broader ‘war on drugs’. Such pressure is likely to persist, sustaining the likelihood of further operations against key cartel figures and therefore increasing the risk of additional retaliatory violence.
Background
Oseguera founded the CJNG in 2011 after splitting from the Milenio Cartel, building it into one of the country’s most powerful criminal organisations with extensive cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine and fentanyl trafficking networks into the US and parts of Asia. The cartel operates across most of Mexico, except Sinaloa state and the Golden Triangle, and its revenue streams include extortion, “criminal taxation”, migrant smuggling and oil and mineral theft.
Previous operations targeting senior cartel leaders show a consistent pattern, with arrests or killings often triggering spikes in violence from loyalists or rival factions. The arrests of Ovidio Guzman, son of Sinaloa Cartel leader Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, in October 2019 and January 2023, as well as Sinaloa Cartel co-founder Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada in July 2024, sparked intense clashes concentrated in Culiacan, followed by sporadic violence lasting days, and continuing at a lower intensity or months.
Risk outlook
The CJNG’s size, reach and now-broken leadership line increase the likelihood of fragmentation, raising the risk of intra- and inter-cartel violence as factions compete for leadership, territory and criminal markets. While the CJNG is unlikely to sustain prolonged retaliatory campaigns at the intensity seen immediately after Oseguera’s killing, future operations against this or other major cartels – particularly under continued US pressure – may trigger similar waves of unrest. Temporary school closures, business suspensions, flight disruptions and supply-chain interruptions are likely in affected urban centres, particularly in Jalisco and neighbouring states, in the coming weeks.