Americas: Protesters attack Communist Party office in Cuba amid blackouts, fuel shortages
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; vandalism
In Cuba, on 14 March protests against blackouts and food shortages in Moron, Ciego de Avila province, turned violent after some demonstrators vandalised the Communist Party office and other state-run establishments in the area – including a pharmacy and a government market – throwing rocks through windows and setting furniture on fire in the street. Authorities arrested five people following the violent protest over a worsening energy crisis driven by Washington’s efforts to cut off the island’s oil supplies. The protest came amid sustained US pressure on President Miguel Diaz-Canel’s government, including US President Donald Trump’s numerous remarks of a “friendly takeover” of the country. Diaz-Canel confirmed on 13 March that Havana opened talks with Washington to find solutions to “bilateral differences”. Disagreements over US sanctions and political reforms are likely to sustain bilateral tensions, prolonging economic deterioration and heightening social discontent and further localised unrest.
Click here to access Cuba’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Solomon Islands’ PM Manele expected to face vote of no confidence
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; government instability; policy continuity
In the Solomon Islands, on 16 March 10 members of the ruling cabinet, including Deputy Prime Minister Frederick Kologeto, simultaneously resigned from Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele’s government, stating that there was “not much trust” in Manele’s leadership. Kologeto affirmed that the 10 resignations include Energy Minister Derrick Manuari, Finance Minister Harry Kuma and Justice Minister Clezy Rore. Opposition forces in parliament are believed to now hold enough numbers to file a motion of no confidence against Manele. The resignations were triggered by a breakdown in the ruling coalition government, widely seen as influenced by former prime minister Manasseh Sogavare, who likely seeks to establish a new political bloc to support his political comeback. Sogavare’s loose alliance is likely to mount a no-confidence motion – Manele’s third one faced since 16 December 2024 – in the coming days.
Click here to access the Solomon Islands’ Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Voters approve Kazakhstan’s new constitution, streamlining political decision-making
Sectors: all
Key Risks: governance; governability; political stability
In Kazakhstan, on 16 March voters approved the country’s proposed new constitution in a referendum, with exit polls showing 87 per cent voting in favour amid a 73 per cent voter turnout. The changes consolidate the upper and lower houses into a unicameral parliament, which officials argue will enable faster approval of legislative reforms amid growing global instability. The post of vice president – abolished in 1996 – will also be re-established. President Kassym Jomart Tokayev will be able to appoint more key officials. A seven-year presidential term limit – introduced by Tokayev in 2022 amid political reforms following the January 2022 civil unrest – will remain in place. Some critics argue that the changes consolidate Tokayev’s power and pave the way for the selection of a successor or resetting Tokayev’s term limits. Public demands for greater government transparency and political freedoms will continue to grow.
Click here to access Kazakhstan’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Blast hits Jewish school in Amsterdam, Netherlands, amid risk of Iranian-linked attacks
Sectors: all
Key Risks: targeted attacks; terrorism; regional conflict
In the Netherlands, on 14 March an explosion caused minor damage and no injuries at a Jewish school in Amsterdam. The city’s mayor, Femke Halsema, described it as “a deliberate attack against the Jewish community”. The incident occurred despite heightened security presence around Jewish sites after on 13 March a synagogue was targeted in an arson attack in Rotterdam, causing no injuries. Authorities arrested four suspects aged 17-19 in connection with the Rotterdam attack shortly after the incident. The incidents came after separate explosions were reported outside the US Embassy in Oslo, Norway, on 8 March and outside a synagogue in Liege, Belgium, on 9 March. Iranian-linked extremist cells and narcotrafficking groups have carried out previous such attacks, particularly since the start of the Israel-Gaza war. Further such attacks on Israeli, Jewish and US-linked assets are likely amid the ongoing Middle East war.
Click here to access the Netherlands’ Global Intake country profile.
MENA: IDF launches ground operations in Lebanon’s south amid continued strikes
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; targeted attacks; regional escalation
In Lebanon, on 16 March Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched “limited and targeted ground operations” in the south of the country. Meanwhile, at least three IDF airstrikes hit Khiam, Nabatiyah province – a Hizbullah stronghold around 6 km from the Israeli border. Khiam holds strategic importance due to its elevated position and key junction, which provides access to both the eastern and western sectors of the south of the country. IDF reportedly requested government approval to mobilise 450,000 reservists, with the proposal expected to be reviewed by ministers and the Knesset. Meanwhile, IDF have been striking alleged Hizbullah infrastructure across the country since hostilities escalated on 2 March amid the Middle East war, with 826 killed, including 106 children. Tel Aviv and Beirut are expected to hold talks in the coming days to negotiate a durable ceasefire. However, IDF ground operations are expected to continue in the short-to-medium term.
Click here to access Lebanon’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: 24 killed, 100 kidnapped in ADF attack on foreign-owned mine in DRC
Sectors: all; mining
Key risks: business disruption; terrorism; targeted attacks; insurgency; kidnapping
In the DRC, on 11 March seven soldiers and 17 civilians were killed as well as more than 100 others kidnapped – with no ransom demands reported – after the Islamic State (IS)-aligned Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) attacked a Chinese-owned mining site in Mutchatcha, Ituri province. The militants conducted a multi-stage assault on the gold mine and the military camp positioned near the town before kidnapping civilians and burning down their homes. This was the first attack on a foreign-owned asset by the ADF, marking an escalation in their insurgency and growing capabilities. Despite continued counter-terrorism operations by Congolese and Ugandan forces in the east of the country, the ADF continues to pose a major threat. Increased foreign interest in the mining sector, particularly US, Chinese and UAE investment interest, will likely draw increased attention from the ADF, heightening the risk of future attacks on foreign assets.
Click here to access the DRC’s Global Intake country profile.