Americas: Rodriguez remains acting president in Venezuela after her 90-day appointment expired
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty; governance
In Venezuela, on 3 April, Delcy Rodriguez remained acting president, exceeding the 90-day limit on her interim role set following the 3 January removal of deposed president Nicolas Maduro. It remained unclear how long Rodriguez will keep the post, as lawmakers have not taken a vote to extend her term beyond the 3 April deadline. The high court still considers Maduro the country’s official president, with the constitution mandating that temporary absences be filled by the vice president for up to 90 days, unless extended by the national assembly. This came after on 1 April the US lifted sanctions on Rodriguez, formalising the recognition of her government, subsequent to a deepening of bilateral engagement – including energy deals, sanction waivers and steps to restore control over overseas assets such as Citgo. Given Rodriguez’s consolidation of power, her term is expected to be extended. However, governance uncertainty is expected to persist in the medium to long term.
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Asia Pacific: Myanmar shadow government to attempt seizure of oil fields in Magwe region
Sectors: oil and gas
Key Risks: confiscation; insurgency; violent clashes
In Myanmar, on 2 April the National Unity Government (NUG), the country’s shadow government in exile, deployed forces from the People’s Defense Force (PDF) rebel group to seize oil fields from local rebel groups in Magwe region. The deployment followed the PDF’s arrest of the NUG’s Magwe regional Minister for Natural Resources, U Tint San, on 29 March for unspecified reasons. Seizure of the oil fields is a likely attempt by rebel groups to secure fuel supplies amid the ongoing Middle East war. Sources close to Bo Let Yar, Defence Minister under Magwe region’s resistance government aligned with the NUG, stated that negotiations on power sharing of oil fields “is underway, but nothing has yet been resolved”. Should negotiations fail in the coming weeks, the PDF is likely to move against local resistance groups, undermining local governance and potentially weakening NUG legitimacy.
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Eurasia: Tensions between Moscow, Yerevan likely to rise ahead of Armenian June elections
Sectors: all; energy
Key Risks: economic and business risks
In Armenia, on 6 April Parliament Speaker Alen Simon stated that Yerevan would withdraw from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) military bloc and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) if Moscow raised gas prices for Armenia. This came following 1 April meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which Putin indicated it was not possible for Yerevan to be a member of both EAEU and the EU. He also pointed at the significant discount Armenia receives on gas prices. Bilateral ties have been strained since Azerbaijan’s September 2023 takeover of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region, with Yerevan criticising CSTO’s failure to intervene. Armenia has since stepped up efforts to diversify geopolitical partners and join the EU. Tensions will remain high as Pashinyan’s anti-Russian stance rallies public support ahead of the June parliamentary elections.
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Europe: JD Vance arrives in Hungary to support PM Orban ahead of elections
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; targeted attacks; civil unrest
In Hungary, on 7 April US Vice President JD Vance arrived in Budapest in a show of support for Prime Minister Viktor Orban ahead of the 12 April general elections. On 1 April polling showed the opposition Tisza party led by Peter Magyar widening its lead over Orban’s ruling Fidesz party, with 56 per cent of support vs Fidesz’s 37 per cent. Orban has ramped up tensions with Ukraine to bolster his support and on 6 April met with troops deployed on the border with Serbia after on 5 April Belgrade reported discovering two backpacks containing explosives near the TurkStream pipeline in an alleged sabotage attempt. Hungary’s opposition claimed the discovery may have been staged to boost Orban’s anti-Ukrainian narratives ahead of the election, with Belgrade’s ruling government a close ally of Orban. Moscow and Washington will step up support for Orban victory as a key ally challenging Brussels’ policies.
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MENA: Trump states “a whole civilization will die tonight” if no deal with Iran reached
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; war at sea; regional escalation; nuclear accident; targeted attacks; trade disruptions
In Iran, on 7 April the risk of a massive US attack increased after US President Donald Trump exhorted Tehran to make a deal by 00:00 GMT, stating “a whole civilization will die tonight” if an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is not reached. Meanwhile, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported they hit a petrochemical compound in Shiraz, Fars province, on 6 April – the third one since 4 April – and targeted several railways and bridges across the country. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned they would retaliate beyond the region and target US and allied energy interests, potentially disrupting their oil and gas supplies for years, if Washington crossed its “red lines” by striking civilian facilities. Doha warned that the window for a diplomatic resolution is rapidly closing. A large-scale US-Israeli campaign targeting Iran’s critical infrastructure appears increasingly likely in the short term.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Fuel price increases liekly to heighten civil unrest risks in Nigeria
Sectors: all; oil and gas
Key risks: economic; civil unrest; disruptive unrest
In Nigeria, on 2 April owner and operator of the country’s largest oil refinery, Aliko Dangote, stated the company is committed to increasing exports of refined fuel and urea to African countries exposed to supply disruptions caused by the Middle East war. With the refinery operating at its 650,000 bpd capacity, it has supplied 17 gasoline cargoes to West, Central and East African nations in 2026 thus far. Despite the refinery operating at beyond peak capacity to meet local and regional demands for hydrocarbons, rising prices will likely increase civil unrest risks in the coming months, with prices for fuel, basic commodities and foodstuffs likely to increase in turn. Issues with addressing inflation and consumer prices will likely impact wider support for President Bola Tinubu in the coming weeks amid election preparations ahead of the February 2027 presidential vote.
Click here to access Nigeria’s Global Intake country profile.