Americas: Mining protests trigger project suspension in the Dominican Republic
Sectors: mining
Key Risks: civil unrest; business risks; regulatory changes; policy uncertainty
In the Dominican Republic, on 4 May President Luis Abinader ordered the suspension of all activity linked to Canadian GoldQuest Mining’s Romero gold and copper project in San Juan province. The suspension followed large-scale protests on 3 May, driven by environmental concerns – particularly risks to the Sabaneta Dam, a critical water source. This highlights rising social and environmental opposition to mining in the country, despite its economic importance. The country hosts Latin America’s largest gold mine, Pueblo Viejo mine, which is majority owned by Canada’s Barrick Gold. Plans to expand its tailings dams have sparked protests in recent years, driven by the relocation of hundreds of predominantly rural families from their communities. Similar environmental protests are likely, heightening regulatory and operational risks for mining projects as the government faces continued pressure to balance investment with environmental and social pressures.
Click here to access the Dominican Republic’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Papua New Guinean landowners demand halt in reopening of Panguna mine
Sectors: mining
Key Risks: political violence; disruptive unrest; targeted attacks
In Papua New Guinea, on 30 April landowners in the Autonomous Region of Bougainville warned Lloyd’s Metals and Energy and Bougainville Copper Limited (BCL) to halt attempting to reopen the Panguna copper mine. They stated that the companies, the chief operators of the mine – which holds one of the world’s largest copper reserves – had violated their rights as indigenous landowners. Locals claimed that both the companies and the government had conducted “unauthorised entry” and failed to consult them on the timeline of the mine’s reopening or the disbursement of royalties owed to them by law. The landowners have since set up manned checkpoints and roadblocks to control access to the mine, which has been closed since 1989. Despite the government’s projections that the mine is critical to the region’s economy, the risk of political violence will remain moderate-to-high should the companies proceed with planned operations.
Click here to access Papua New Guinea’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Russia, Ukraine declare competing ceasefires
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 4 May Kyiv and Moscow announced two competing unilateral ceasefires. Moscow announced a ceasefire for 8 to 9 May to coincide with the traditional military parade marking the end of the Second World War. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky later stated that he had not received an official notice from Russia and announced a ceasefire starting at 00:00 local time on the night of 5 to 6 May. He added that “human life was incomparably more valuable than the ‘celebration’ of any anniversary” and that Moscow “was not serious” to expect Kyiv to observe a ceasefire during a Russian military holiday. Moscow threatened Ukraine with “massive missile strikes” on central Kyiv in the event of a violation, urging civilians and staff at foreign diplomatic missions to leave the city. The ceasefires are unlikely to be observed, increasing the risk of strikes in the coming days.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Political stability risks increased in Romania after PM Bolojan’s government collapses
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; economic risks
In Romania, on 5 May the government of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan was toppled in a no-confidence vote, backed by his former coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), which teamed up with the right-wing populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). This followed the PSD’s withdrawal from the government on 20 April and its announcement of a “technical agreement” with AUR to file a no-confidence motion against Bolojan on 27 April. The PSD was dissatisfied with Bolojan’s austerity measures, which have eroded the party’s voter base. President Nicosur Dan is now expected to invite parties to negotiations to form another pro-EU government. The PSD has previously stated that it would join such a government under new leadership. Political stability risks are likely to remain elevated in the coming weeks, jeopardising Bucharest’s progress to reduce its high budget deficit.
Click here to access Romania’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Project Freedom drives escalation in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran’s strikes on the UAE
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; war at sea; targeted attacks; supply chain disruption; cargo transport; regional escalation; business disruptions
In Iran, on 5 May Iranian media rejected US claims that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked vessels were destroyed, instead reporting that US strikes hit civilian cargo boats near Oman’s coast, killing five people. The incident followed the 1 May launch of “Project Freedom”, a US operation aimed at securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran warned that any vessel transiting without its authorisation could be targeted. This came following Iranian missile and drone launches on 4 May toward the UAE, which reportedly caused a fire at the Fujairah oil hub. In the short term, miscalculation risks will increase, with further maritime clashes, drone interceptions and strikes on energy infrastructure likely. As Tehran and Washington escalate militarily and reject responsibility, the 7 April ceasefire framework is highly likely to collapse, raising the prospect of renewed regional confrontation.
Click here to access Iran’s and here to access the UAE’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: RSF drone strikes on Khartoum airport hamper Sudan’s economic recovery
Sectors: all; aviation
Key risks: targeted attacks; business disruption; civil war; regional escalation
In Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched several drone strikes against military and civilian targets throughout Khartoum state. The attacks caused minor damage to an administrative building connected with Khartoum International Airport (KRT), leading to flights being suspended for 72 hours. The RSF also targeted the Signal Corps headquarters north of Khartoum and a military camp near Omdurman, Khartoum state. The drone attacks on Khartoum marked the latest escalation amid an intensifying drone strike campaign by the RSF, with six states being hit since the start of May. Growing use of drone attacks in the past month, reportedly with alleged Ethiopian support, will undermine efforts by the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) to reestablish Khartoum as the capital and further raise tensions with Addis Ababa. Further RSF drone strikes on the capital are likely in the coming weeks, continuing to disrupt the rebuilding of the city.
Click here to access Sudan’s Global Intake country profile.