Americas: Flavio Bolsonaro formally launches presidential bid ahead of October vote in Brazil
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political uncertainty; political polarisation; political stability
In Brazil, on 25 July Senator Flavio Bolsonaro formally launched his presidential campaign at the Liberal Party convention in Sao Paulo, positioning himself as the political heir to his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. The event featured endorsements from Argentine President Javier Milei, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and an AI-generated message from Jair Bolsonaro, now under house arrest. Flavio pledged tax cuts, tougher security policies and continuity with his father’s agenda. The launch underscored his alignment with the region’s ascendant right and highlighted his close association with US President Donald Trump, whose tariffs on Brazilian goods have become a political liability. With polls showing leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead and centre-right parties withholding endorsements, Flavio is likely to intensify coalition-building while continuing to emphasise anti-left rhetoric ahead of the 4 October presidential election.
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Asia Pacific: TNLA rebel group to join Myanmar government’s 100-Day Peace Plan
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war on land; insurgency; political violence; violent clashes
In Myanmar, on 21 July reports emerged that the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) rebel group joined the government’s 100-day peace plan, accepting offers for peace talks with Naypyidaw on 19 July. The TNLA is the first rebel group to accept such negotiations, reportedly amid increasing pressure from Beijing seeking to stabilise areas near its border. Sources indicated that the TNLA called for a self-administered Ta’ang autonomous state, which Naypyidaw reportedly denied due to similar such political entities already existing in northern Shan state. While smaller rebel groups in Shan state are likely to also join such talks amid growing pressure from China, the offer has been rejected by the Karen National Union and Chin National Front rebel groups. As the TNLA is reportedly seeking closer ties with Naypyidaw, the risk of insurgency may decline throughout areas near the Chinese border in the coming weeks.
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Eurasia: Ukraine strikes Iranian ship in Caspian Sea as Russia-Iran cooperation grows
Sectors: all; shipping; defence
Key Risks: war-at-sea; regional escalation
On 25 July Iran’s Foreign Ministry reported that one sailor was killed and another injured in a Ukrainian drone strike on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea, denouncing the attack as an act of aggression. Kyiv reported earlier in the day that it struck a cargo ship carrying military supplies between Russia and Iran. Kyiv has increasingly targeted Russian military and energy assets in the sea, but the incident marked the first reported instance of targeting Iranian vessels. The attack came as Russia reportedly steps up defence support for Iran amid the renewed Middle East conflict from 8 July, while Kyiv increases efforts to provide Gulf countries with drone support and counter Russian-Iranian cooperation. The incident in the Caspian Sea also highlights the growing security risks to the traditionally sheltered leg of the crucial Middle Corridor from China to Europe via Central Asia.
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Europe: Poland’s opposition PiS party set to split ahead of 2027 parliamentary elections
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Poland, on 24 July Law and Justice (PiS) leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski announced that about 30 MPs from the party had effectively resigned after refusing to sign a loyalty pledge. This followed months of intra-party tensions centred on former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who had formed the Development Plus organisation in response to PiS’s increasing shift towards the far right. The tensions escalated following the appointment of ultra-conservative MP Przemyslaw Czarnek as the party’s candidate for prime minister in the 2027 general election, a decision that Morawiecki and his supporters called a mistake. Despite insisting that Development Plus was complementary to PiS, the party’s leadership perceived its creation as an effort to undermine them. The pledge required PiS members to refrain from activities related to the group. Should the party officially split, and should Development Plus establish itself as a party running in the 2027 vote, it is likely to undermine PiS in the election.
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MENA: Civil disobedience campaign expands across Libya amid worsening public services
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political uncertainty; government instability; business disruptions
In Libya, on 26 July protesters launched a civil disobedience campaign across Tripoli and western provinces over prolonged power cuts, rising electricity prices and deteriorating public services. Demonstrators blocked roads, targeted government buildings and protested near the Mellitah gas plant, calling for a gas export halt to Italy until domestic electricity shortages are addressed. The movement, led by Souq Al-Jumaa, has expanded beyond energy grievances to demand the removal of the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) leadership, improved governance, accountability over corruption and state institutional reforms. Protests will likely persist in the short term, with an increased risk of clashes near government facilities, UN offices, energy infrastructure and media sites. Further unrest could undermine the Government of National Unity’s (GNU) authority, reduce prospects for GNU-eastern government talks and disrupt critical energy operations and economic activity in western Libya.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Sudan Armed Forces seize full control of Export Road in North Kordofan
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil war; violent clashes; targeted attacks; supply chain disruptions
In Sudan, on 26 July the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) announced that they seized full control of the Export Road, a roughly 350 km supply route linking Omdurman, Khartoum state, to El Obeid, North Kordofan state, after two days of heavy fighting against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The RSF had held most of the road since the early months of the war in April 2023, using it to move fighters and materiel from western Sudan to Khartoum and during its May 2025 withdrawal from the capital. The capture secures El Obeid from the east, connects it to Omdurman and alleviates RSF pressure on the city following reports of major force buildups. With the RSF reportedly suffering heavy losses in the clashes, the SAF is likely to press its offensive further into North Kordofan in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Sudan’s Global Intake country profile.