Americas: Venezuela agrees to agree long-term oil deal with US
Sectors: all; oil & gas
Key Risks: Policy uncertainty; regulatory changes; business risks; political stability
In Venezuela, on 29 August interim President Delcy Rodriguez and US President Donald Trump agreed to a long-term framework for developing 17 oilfields containing around 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, equivalent to 21 per cent of Venezuela’s total reserves. The agreement targets production of more than 1.5 million bpd and gives US interests a significant role, while Venezuela retains formal ownership of its resources. The framework could attract investment and support efforts to revive the country’s long-declining oil sector, although political and regulatory uncertainty may deter major international oil companies from committing significant capital. Further energy agreements, including with Chevron, are expected this week. The deal is likely to face domestic criticism over perceived foreign involvement in Venezuela’s strategic resources, particularly if US interests are seen to gain disproportionate influence over the sector.
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Asia Pacific: India dismisses court order on Indus treaty and Ratle dam
Sectors: all
Key Risks: arbitration award default, regional conflict
In India, on 31 August the Foreign Ministry rejected a ruling by an arbitration court in the Hague that the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty remains fully in force, calling the body illegally constituted and confirming its suspension of the treaty. India placed the treaty in abeyance in April 2025 after accusing Pakistan of backing an attack on tourists in Kashmir, which Pakistan denies. The court found unanimously that none of the grounds cited by India justified suspension. It separately barred India from concreting the dam wall of the Ratle hydroelectric project above specified levels until 90 days after a World Bank-appointed expert issues a final decision, expected in July 2027. India has not participated in the proceedings, citing jurisdictional objections. Work at Ratle is likely to continue over the coming months, with no resolution probable before the expert’s decision.
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Eurasia: Russia increases the number of raids amid Ukraine’s lack of interceptors
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Ukraine, on 1 September at least 12 people were killed and 21 others were injured in Russian overnight strikes on Kyiv and the wider Kyiv Oblast. At least eight people were killed in Kyiv, six of whom were Ukrainian Railway employees killed when a ballistic missile hit a depot and other railway facilities. The attack marked the sixth day of Russian strikes targeting the capital, with Moscow reportedly changing its strategy from launching massive barrages to using jet-powered drones in frequent attacks. On 28 August there were reportedly 13 alerts – the highest number of daily raids since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Moscow appears to be intensifying its war of attrition amid Kyiv’s acute shortage of interceptors and the US’s focus on the Middle East war. Separately, reports emerged indicating Moscow was preparing to escalate the war in the coming months.
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Europe: Montenegro accuses two neighbours of hybrid threats to undermine its EU accession
Sectors: all
Key Risks: regional escalation
In Montenegro, on 28 August President Jakov Milatovic’s office announced he summoned the Security Council following allegations made on 27 August by Prime Minister Milojko Spajic that the country was facing “hybrid threats” from two neighbours aimed at destabilising the country and undermining its EU aspirations. Local media reported some regional actors were “unhappy” with Podgorica’s rapid progress towards joining the EU and sought to slow it down. Spajic did not specify the neighbours, although media reported he was likely referring to Serbia and Albania. Tirana and Belgrade denied the accusations, with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic stating he was certain Spajic was referring to Croatia. Several officials working for the European Commission reportedly confirmed there were such efforts. The allegation is indicative of persistent mistrust and competition between countries in the Balkans and is likely to fuel regional tensions, particularly between Belgrade and Podgorica.
Click here to access Montenegro’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Iran targets US military assets in Jordan and UAE following US strikes
Sectors: all
Key risks: targeted attacks; war on land; war at sea; regional escalation; regional conflict
In Iran, on 30 August the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched missiles and drones towards the King Hussein and Al Azraq air bases in Jordan, following US strikes on Iran’s Larak Island. Jordan reported intercepting eight missiles, with no casualties. On 31 August the IRGC announced further retaliatory attacks against US forces in the UAE, claiming explosive drones targeted personnel and helicopters at Al Minhad Air Base. Abu Dhabi denied an attack on the base but confirmed its forces engaged a drone approaching from Iranian waters, while Tehran separately claimed to have downed a US MQ-9 over the Strait of Hormuz. Further Iranian attacks against US military assets across the Gulf are likely in the short term, particularly following additional US strikes on Iranian territory, increasing the risks of wider regional escalation and retaliatory attacks against US allies.
Click here to access Iran’s, and here to access Jordan’s and here to access the UAE’s Global Intake country profiles.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Several soldiers killed in failed soldiers’ mutiny in Niger’s capital
Sectors: all
Key risks: coup d’etat; violent clashes; government instability
In Niger, on 29 August dozens of soldiers were killed and several others were detained after the military, reportedly backed by Africa Corps (formerly the Wagner Group) and Algerian air assets, crushed a soldiers’ mutiny in Niamey. The mutineers briefly seized Air Base 101 at Diori Hamani International Airport, the national television broadcast station and besieged the presidential palace before being repelled by loyalist forces and Africa Corps. Although the soldiers stated no overt aims, they voiced frustration at the lack of support for units in the Tillaberi and Dosso regions, which face high casualty rates against Islamist militants. Security crises in several regions and growing military frustrations will likely further raise tensions in the military. Continued tensions between capital-based and frontline-based units, combined with a worsening security outlook, will likely destabilise the junta in the coming months, with arrests and trials likely.
Click here to access Niger’s Global Intake country profile.