Americas: Venezuelan government boosts troops amid rising tensions with Washington
Sectors: all
Key Risks: regional escalation; gang violence; government instability
In Venezuela, on 7 September President Nicolas Maduro’s government ordered additional troops to tackle drug trafficking in coastal states – including the Guajira region of Zulia state and the Paraguana peninsula in Falcon state – as well as on the island of Nueva Esparta and in Sucre and Delta Amacuro states. The move came amid rising tensions with Washington over US President Donald Trump’s administration’s campaign against “narco terrorism” in Latin America and coincided with Trump ordering the deployment of 10 F-35 stealth fighter jets to Puerto Rico. On 5 September CNN reported that Trump was considering carrying out strikes against drug cartels operating inside Venezuela in an effort to tackle drug trafficking in the region and allegedly dislodge Maduro from power. The possibility of US military action inside Venezuela will exacerbate heightened bilateral tensions.
Click here to access Venezuela’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Japan’s LDP to choose a successor following Ishiba’s resignation
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability, policy uncertainty, regulatory changes, government instability
In Japan, on 7 September Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation less than a year after taking office, stating the move was necessary to prevent a “civil war” within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Ishiba, who took office on 1 October 2024 will remain in office until the party selects a successor. His departure follows rival pressure after three electoral defeats, which left the LDP dependent on coalition partner Komeito and opposition backing to pass legislation. The LDP must now elect a new leader to complete the three-year term running until September 2027. Former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi declared his candidacy on 8 September, with other frontrunners including Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi. The party committee will set the election schedule on 9 September, with potential start on 22 September and final vote on 4 October.
Click here to access Japan’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Reports suggest US delegation to visit Armenia to discuss TRIPP
Sectors: all
Key Risks: economic and business risks
In Armenia, on 4 September reports emerged suggesting that a US delegation would visit Yerevan to discuss the travel corridor dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). According to some unconfirmed reports, the delegation is expected to arrive in the coming week and discuss political details as well as the volume of investments and other practicalities linked to the planned construction. This will come after on 8 August Armenia signed a declaration with the US and Azerbaijan on the construction of TRIPP – a corridor connecting Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakchivan through Armenian territory. Details remain uncertain, including on financing and security. The potential visit could bring more clarity, although it will likely take time to agree on all details.
Click here to access Armenia’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Norwegians vote in legislative elections dominated by rising costs of living
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Norway, on 8 September citizens cast their ballots in the legislative elections. The campaign was dominated by the rising costs of living as well as the management of the US$2tn sovereign wealth fund. The Labour party is slightly favoured to win the vote after the party received a major boost in February when former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg returned to politics as a finance minister, with the latest poll indicating it could receive around 27 per cent of the votes. This would force it to form a wide coalition with small parties. The race is expected to be very tight, with the right-wing populist Progress party polling at around 21 per cent, and the Conservative party at around 14 per cent. Final outcomes are expected to be announced on 9 September.
Click here to access Norway’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Turkish court ruling sparks protests amid widening anti-opposition crackdown
Sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; civil unrest; arbitrary arrests; economic risks; political polarisation
In Turkey, on 8 September at least 10 people were detained as police used pepper spray inside the Istanbul offices of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) to remove party officials and allow the new court-appointed chair to enter. This followed the court-ordered removal of CHP’s Istanbul provincial congress over graft claims and the appointment of a caretaker team on 2 September. The internet watchdog NetBlocks reported that X, YouTube, Instagram and WhatsApp were restricted after the CHP called for rallies on 7 September. The annulment sets a precedent that could threaten Ozgur Ozel’s national leadership, with a pivotal hearing in Ankara scheduled for 15 September. As the party continues to resist what it calls a “judicial coup,” further protests are likely in the coming days – and a heavy-handed response from security forces, including a wider wave of arrests, appears increasingly likely.
Click here to access Turkey’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Trade disruptions increase amid JNIM’s blockade in western Mali
Sectors: all
Key risks: targeted attacks; trade disruption; business and economic risks
In Mali, on 3 September militant group Jama’at Nasr al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) announced it would blockade the cities of Kayes and Nioro du Sahel, Kayes region, due to their reported support for the government. In the same statement, JNIM banned all fuel imports from neighbouring countries. Since the announcement, JNIM militants have attacked fuel trucks, transport trucks and construction equipment along key roads in the Kayes region. Six Senegalese transport drivers were kidnapped by JNIM militants on 4 September near Kayes before being released at 21:00 local time on 5 September. JNIM influence in the western regions expanded over the last six months, with the militant group recording multiple attacks on key border towns and roads in Kayes region. Further attacks on transport trucks and construction equipment along key roads are likely as JNIM continues to target the government’s revenue streams.
Click here to access Mali’s Global Intake country profile.