Americas: US restricts visas for two Haitian transitional council members following PM ouster
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty; gang violence; civil unrest; governability
In Haiti, on 25 January Washington stated it was imposing visa restrictions and revoking visas for two members of the transitional presidential council and their immediate families due to their alleged involvement in “the operation of gangs”, including through interference with the government’s efforts to counter gangs. This came after the transitional presidential council voted to remove Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime on 22 January, defying US calls against government changes and for the body’s dissolution on 7 February, when its mandate ends. The council – appointed in April 2024 – has failed to hold the long-awaited general elections to elect the president due to ongoing gang violence. Amid concerns that some council members seek to delay the planned transition of power, the risks of political instability and civil unrest will be elevated in the coming weeks.
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Asia Pacific: Police to intensify illegal settlement evictions in Papua New Guinea
Sectors: all
Key Risks: violent clashes; gang violence; looting; vandalism; business disruption
In Papua New Guinea, on 25 January illegal settlers in the Two-Mile Hill and Rabiagini neighbourhoods of the capital Port Moresby fired at police officers before fleeing from the city during forced evictions. No casualties were reported, although disruptions to local businesses and transport emerged as locals remained sheltered in place against anticipated looting and vandalism. The attack followed reports that the settlements had been hotspots for local crime, including theft, gang violence and inter-tribal conflict. National Capital District Governor Powes Parkop stated that the situation had been “forced upon” the government, which had already organised plans for formalised development of the area under its ‘Settlement-to-Suburb’ scheme. However, Port Moresby will likely intensify crackdowns in informal settlements to guarantee the scheme’s success, raising the risk of targeted attacks against security personnel in the coming weeks.
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Eurasia: Ukraine signals US security guarantees deal is ready; territorial issues unresolved
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land; targeted attacks
On 25 January Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that a US document on security guarantees for Kyiv was ready for signing, a key milestone addressing Ukrainian demands in the ongoing peace talks with Russia. He added that talks with Washington and Moscow – under a new trilateral format – in Abu Dhabi on 23-24 January had made some progress. However, on 26 January Russian officials indicated that Moscow was not departing from its demand for Kyiv to cede full control of the Donbas region, signalling that territorial issues remained unresolved. In parallel, Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, prompting the biggest energy crisis since the first winter of Moscow’s 2022 full-scale invasion. Over 1 million households were left without power following the latest countrywide barrage on 24 January. Pressure on Kyiv to cede to Moscow’s demands will grow.
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Europe: India agrees to cut tariffs on EU cars ahead of anticipated free trade deal
Sectors: all; automobile
Key Risks: economic risks; business risks; trade friction
On 25 January India agreed to lower tariffs on cars with an import price of more than EUR15,000 (US$17,739) from the EU from 100 per cent to 40 per cent. This came as talks to reach a free trade deal accelerated ahead of the 27 January India–EU Summit in New Delhi, where an announcement on the deal is expected. Once signed by both sides and ratified by the European Parliament – which could take at least a year – the deal could expand bilateral trade and boost Indian exports such as textiles and jewellery, which have been hit by US tariffs. It comes amid Brussels’ efforts to negotiate trade deals with several key partners in response to Washington’s trade war and protectionism. However, EU lawmakers’ legal challenge to the 17 January trade deal with Mercosur signals further difficulties in implementing the deals.
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MENA: Yemen’s Huthis threaten renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping amid US-Iran tensions
Sectors: all
Key risks: supply chain disruption; business risks; trade disruptions; war at sea; regional escalation
In Yemen, on 26 January the Huthis threatened attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, a move widely seen as supporting Tehran as it faces rising pressure from Washington. The Huthis released a brief video showing earlier footage of a burning vessel, captioned simply “Soon”. The warning came after US President Donald Trump stated on 22 January that the US was sending a “massive fleet” toward Iran “just in case”, warning that Washington was closely watching Tehran following its crackdown on protesters. A senior US official reported that the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group recently entered the Indian Ocean. Tehran renewed warnings to Israel and the US, stating that any attack would be met with a “more painful response than in the past”. While heated rhetoric is not new in US-Iran relations, tensions are expected to rise in the short term.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Eight killed, 50 injured in Boko Haram militant ambush in Nigeria
Sectors: all
Key risks: insurgency; targeted attacks; terrorism; violent clashes
In Nigeria, on 19 January eight soldiers were killed and 50 others were injured in a Boko Haram ambush in an area known as the Timbuktu triangle in Borno state. The attackers launched two VBIED attacks on a convoy of travelling soldiers, with the second one hitting its intended target. The attack came after the military launched an offensive into Sambisa forest in Borno state – an area regularly used for militant hideouts – under Operation Desert Sanity, which began on 17 January. Military efforts to curb Boko Haram and Islamic State – West Africa Province (IS-WAP) activity in Borno state are likely linked to US pressure and alleged US support in airstrikes and other military actions under Operation Desert Sanity. As operations intensify in Borno state, further ambushes and clashes with Islamist militants are highly likely in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Nigeria’s Global Intake country profile.