Date first published: 04/03/2026
Key sectors: all
Key risks: war-on-land; targeted attacks
Risk development
24 February marked the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A year of intensive negotiations led by United States (US) President Donald Trump’s administration have brought the two sides incrementally closer to a settlement, but key sticking points persist, notably over Russia’s demands for Ukraine to cede the remaining parts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (Donbas region) it still controls. The latest round of talks in Geneva on 18 February ended abruptly after just two hours, with reports that negotiations were nearing complete breakdown.
On 11 February the Financial Times reported, citing unnamed Western officials, that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky intends to announce presidential elections and a referendum on a proposed peace deal on 24 February, with discussions ongoing for the votes to take place in May. While Zelensky denied the plans, Washington is reportedly pressuring Kyiv to hold the elections in order to finalise a peace deal with Russia by June – or risk losing US security guarantees – as Trump seeks to secure an agreement before shifting focus to domestic politics ahead of the November US midterm elections and 4 July independence day.
Why it matters
Zelensky’s position has weakened considerably over the past year. His image has been battered by corruption scandals and his political opponents have grown more vocal, breaking the wartime silence and unity that had previously constrained domestic dissent. Zelensky is reportedly seeking to tie the peace process to his own re-election, but a presidential vote will be deeply contentious while hundreds of thousands of troops remain on the front line. Ceding Donbas – territory defended at enormous human cost – could prove disastrous for his ratings.
Meanwhile, the battlefield’s frontlines have remained largely frozen, though Russia has made slow, grinding advances underpinned by a sustained manpower advantage. Ukraine still holds a small but strategically important piece of Donetsk Oblast – elevated, mountainous terrain that serves as a natural defensive barrier. Russia has intensified its efforts to capture the key strongholds of Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad and Huliaipole – advances that could materialise within weeks and that Moscow would use to strengthen its claim that Kyiv should cede territory because its capture is ‘inevitable’. Ukraine faces compounding shortfalls in military aid following Washington’s decision to shift the burden of arming Kyiv to its European allies, exposing major gaps in Western support.
Background
To achieve Trump’s longstanding promise of securing a peace deal, Washington has applied pressure simultaneously on Kyiv and Moscow, though the weight has increasingly fallen on Ukraine. Russia, for its part, has maintained its territorial demands as non-negotiable, using military pressure and infrastructure strikes to reinforce its negotiating position. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also long demanded presidential elections to undermine Zelensky’s legitimacy and to secure a popular mandate that would prevent any future Ukrainian government from challenging the terms of a settlement.
Russia’s record drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy system since October have destroyed most thermal power plants and caused widespread blackouts, raising the human cost of continued resistance. Additionally, a rare improvised explosive device (IED) attack on 21 February that killed a police officer and injured 25 people in Lviv points to a parallel escalation, with authorities alleging links to Russian special services.
Risk outlook
The fraught state of peace talks means a durable resolution to the war remains a distant prospect. Russia will continue its campaign against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure to pressure Kyiv, with further attacks on energy and transport facilities likely. Additional IED or sabotage incidents in Ukraine cannot be ruled out. The June timeline favoured by the Trump administration is widely seen as unrealistic. As both sides continue to stall, Washington is likely to intensify pressure, particularly on Ukraine. The risk remains that Russia will be able to increasingly overpower Ukrainian forces in the long-term, as attrition continues to favour Moscow.