Americas: Peru general election results signal likely runoff on 7 June
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty
In Peru, on 12 April, official results from electoral body ONPE showed two conservative candidates, former congresswoman Keiko Fujimori and right-wing former Lima mayor Rafael Lopez Aliaga, leading with 17.17 per cent and 16.97 per cent, respectively, in a general election marred by a highly fragmented field of over 30 candidates and polling station delays. The disruptions, due to logistical issues with the distribution of electoral material, prompted an extension of voting hours by one more day until 18:00 local time on 13 April. The vote took place amid political instability and widespread public disillusionment driven by rising crime and corruption. With no clear frontrunner and all major candidates polling well below the 50 per cent needed to win outright, a 7 June runoff is likely – a scenario likely to extend political uncertainty in the country.
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Asia Pacific: Indonesia to continue tightening of commodities sector regulations
Sectors: oil and gas; agriculture
Key Risks: confiscation; frustration of process; disruptive unrest; political violence
In Indonesia, on 10 April President Prabowo Subianto called for criminal charges to be filed against firms refusing to cooperate with the Forest Area Enforcement Task Force (PKH). The PKH, designed to crack down on illegal activities and commodity productions in the country’s forests, has previously seized over 5.8 million hectares of mining assets and palm oil-producing land since Q4 2024, a majority of which has been handed over to the state-owned Agrinas Palma Nusantara palm oil firm. Previous such seizures triggered disruptive unrest and targeted attacks on Agrinas’ operations, carried out by newly disenfranchised, small-scale palm oil producers, in Tesso Nilo National Park Riau province, on 20 November 2025. Further scrutiny of, and crackdowns on, the commodities sector is likely, with a latent risk of political violence and targeted attacks should Jakarta be perceived as overstepping its authority.
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Eurasia: Russia, Ukraine accuse each other of Easter ceasefire violations; fresh talks expected
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land; targeted attacks
On 11 April Russia and Ukraine accused each other of violating an Orthodox Easter ceasefire announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin from 11-12 April. Regional Russian authorities reported that three people were injured after Ukrainian drones struck a petrol station in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, and another two people were injured in drone strikes and shelling in Shebekino and Grayvoron, Belgorod Oblast. Ukraine’s General Staff reported 469 violations by Moscow, including assault actions, shelling and drone strikes. Such accusations are common, and the willingness to implement a ceasefire should be seen as a positive step amid de-escalation efforts. Separately, on 10 April senior Ukrainian official Kyrylo Budanov stated that progress was made towards resolving outstanding issues in peace talks – namely, Russia’s demands for full control of Donetsk Oblast – but disclosed few details. Fresh rounds of talks are likely as efforts to reach a peace deal intensify.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Bulgaria heads for eight election since 2021 amid fears of foreign interference
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; governance; civil unrest
In Bulgaria, on 19 April citizens will vote snap elections following the collapse of Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov’s coalition government on 11 December 2025. It will be the country’s eighth election since 2021, following a series of inconclusive votes and fragile coalition governments. On 7 April former president Rumen Radev – who is currently running for parliament with his new Progressive Bulgaria (PB) coalition – alleged that election results of the 19 April snap vote might be compromised by what he called “the Romanian model”. He referred to the November 2025 annulment of the presidential elections in Romania following allegations of foreign interference. This came amid concerns of Russian meddling in the 19 April vote, with the Foreign Ministry setting up a unit to improve its response to foreign interference. Radev’s PB is currently leading in polls. Tensions will remain high ahead of the vote.
Click here to access Bulgaria’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Iraq parliament elects Nizar Amedi as president, ending months-long deadlock
Sectors: all
Key risks: political impasse; political polarisation; political uncertainty; government instability
In Iraq, on 11 April the parliament elected Kurdish politician Nizar Amedi as president, ending a prolonged deadlock, missing the constitutional deadline on 27 February. While largely ceremonial, the role triggers the process to appoint a prime minister amid intensifying Iran-US competition. Amedi secured 227 votes in a second-round runoff; however, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) boycotted the session, rejected the outcome as illegitimate and withdrew to the Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI) to reassess. The dispute reflects divisions with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and broader tensions within the Shi’ah Coordination Framework (CF). Negotiations over the premiership will likely face delays in the short term as the KDP conditions participation on a broader political package. Continued boycotts, procedural disputes and external pressure are likely to stall federal and Kurdish government formation, with risks of extended political paralysis.
Click here to access Iraq’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Temporary ceasefire for papal visit to create window of peace in Cameroon
Sectors: all
Key risks: separatism; violent clashes; targeted attacks; political violence
In Cameroon, on 13 April Anglophone separatist groups announced a three-day ceasefire between 15 and 17 April ahead of Pope Leo XIV’s visit to Bamenda, Nord-Ouest region, on 16 April. The groups stated that the ceasefire would include safe passage for civilians, pilgrims, foreign dignitaries, Pope Leo and his entourage. The threat of clashes with security forces still looms as the status of police and security forces in the three-day ceasefire is uncertain. There is precedent for ceasefires collapsing since the Anglophone crisis began in 2017. Initial discussions among separatist groups over a short ceasefire began in early March, but attacks and clashes persisted, with at least eight soldiers, separatists and civilians killed in a series of clashes in Nord-Ouest region between 6 and 28 March. Despite the announcement, the threat of clashes with security forces persists, sustaining short-term internal conflict risks.
Click here to access Cameroon’s Global Intake country profile.