Americas: Calls grow to remove election chief as vote count drags on in Peru
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty
In Peru, on 17 April, calls intensified to remove electoral authority chief Piero Corvetto as delays and alleged irregularities continued to cloud the presidential vote count, with no clear second-place candidate emerging to face frontrunner Keiko Fujimori in a June runoff. With more than 93 per cent of ballots counted, leftist Roberto Sanchez and ultraconservative Rafael Lopez Aliaga remained separated by a narrow margin of roughly 13,000 votes, while around 5 per cent of ballots required manual review due to errors or missing data. Corvetto denied wrongdoing despite acknowledging logistical delays that extended voting, as the top electoral court filed a criminal complaint and police opened an investigation into misplaced voting materials. While EU observers reported no evidence of fraud, political and business leaders are likely to intensify calls for Corvetto’s resignation amid rising tensions and uncertainty, with the delays and allegations risking further erosion of confidence in already fragile electoral institutions.
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Asia Pacific: Philippines’ former representative Zaldy Co arrested in Prague
Sectors: all
Key Risks: corruption; disruptive unrest; political violence
On 17 April the Philippines’ former House representative Zaldy Co was arrested in Czechia for attempting to enter the country “without proper documentation”. Co has lived in Europe in self-exile amid Manila’s ongoing flood corruption scandal, in which Co is believed to be a key actor. The scandal, within which as much as US$2bln is believed to have been embezzled, sparked countrywide protests in September 2025. On 4 September 2025 protesters vandalised the offices of St. Gerrard’s Construction Company in Pasig City, Metro Manila amid accusations of the company failing to construct promised flood prevention infrastructure. Co’s arrest, the first of its kind for implicated officials called for by officials, is likely to boost President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s flagging popularity should he be extradited to Manila. Nonetheless, the risk of disruptive unrest over the scandal is expected to persist.
Click here to access the Philippines’ Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: US extends sanctions waiver on Russian oil at sea
Sectors: oil and gas
Key Risks: sanctions; economic risks; supply chain disruptions
On 17 April the US Treasury Department issued a month-long sanctions waiver on Russian oil and petroleum products that are at sea. This came only two days after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on 15 April that Washington would not renew the waiver, which officially expired on 11 April. The fresh extension will expire on 16 May. The decision was aimed at easing global energy price volatility amid uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since 28 February due to the Middle East war. The move will undermine Western efforts to deprive Russia of its oil revenues used to fund its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the decision, claiming the move will allow Moscow to sell 12 million tonnes of crude and generate US$10bln in revenues, without explaining the basis for the figures.
Click here to access Russia’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Germany to convene security council amid warnings of jet fuel shortages in Europe
Sectors: all; energy; aviation; petrochemicals; manufacturing; agriculture
Key Risks: supply chain disruptions; business disruptions, trade disruptions; economic risks
In Germany, on 19 April Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated he would soon convene the National Security Council to discuss potential responses to looming jet fuel shortages across Europe amid the Middle East war. On 18 April Economy Minister Katherina Reiche unveiled contingency plans and on 20 April met with fuel suppliers, airline representatives and airport operators. This came after on 16 April International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Barol warned that Europe’s aviation industry had around six weeks of jet fuel left unless the Strait of Hormuz – a vital sea lane for Gulf energy exports effectively closed since 28 February – was rapidly unblocked. However, on 17 April Brussels downplayed the fears while acknowledging “tight” markets, stating it was prepared to respond. Jet fuel prices spiked by 95 per cent since the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran on 28 February. Disruptions to energy-intensive industries appear increasingly likely.
Click here to access Germany’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: US seizure of Iran’s vessel in Gulf of Oman triggers sharp escalation in maritime tensions
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; war at sea; supply chain disruption; cargo transport; regional escalation
In Iran, on 19 April US forces seized the Iranian-flagged cargo vessel Touska in the Gulf of Oman after it completely ignored orders to halt, with Washington framing the operation as enforcement of its naval blockade on Iranian ports. Tehran condemned the incident as “maritime piracy” and threatened retaliation. The seizure followed Iran’s reclosure of the Strait of Hormuz on 18 April. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts, including potential Pakistan-mediated talks, remain uncertain amid widening gaps on nuclear, sanction and maritime control issues. In the coming days and ahead of the 22 April ceasefire deadline, further interceptions, reciprocal seizures and limited strikes on maritime infrastructure are increasingly likely. With both sides entrenched and military posture intensifying, a renewed escalation cannot be ruled out. Should US-Iran talks take place, the first step will likely be a joint statement extending the ceasefire.
Click here to access Iran’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Kenya seeks financial support amid looming inflation risks
Sectors: all
Key risks: political violence
In Kenya, on 16 April authorities requested financial support from the World Bank to soften impacts of the Middle East war. Nairobi’s reliance on the region for close to 90 per cent of its oil supply leaves it particularly exposed to energy price and supply shocks and subsequent inflation risks. The request followed an increasing number of African countries requesting international support amid global economic turbulence in the wake of IMF-World Bank spring meetings. Some beleaguered African governments, which have revised growth forecasts downward in response to the conflict, have been forced to end rate cutting cycles. Alongside fuel price rises, governments will be expected to absorb some of the potentially inflationary impacts amid a tightening fiscal space. Increases to the cost of living will also raise civil unrest risks, notably in Kenya, where the government seeks to boost its popularity.
Click here to access Kenya’s Global Intake country profile.