Date first published: 19/05/2026
Key sectors: all
Key risks: political instability, political impasse, government instability
Risk development
Makerfield is an unremarkable post-industrial constituency on the western edge of Greater Manchester. It is an unlikely setting for a contest that may determine the future of the Labour Party and the next occupant of Downing Street. On 14 May Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his seat explicitly to allow Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, to contest the by-election. Burnham has built a reputation as a practical administrator, integrating bus services under public control and winning widespread support for his public battles with the Johnson government over financial support for northern England during the COVID-19 pandemic. Should Burnham win, he will be eligible under Labour party rules to stand in a leadership contest and will almost certainly replace Keir Starmer as prime minister.
Why it matters
Starmer’s position as prime minister is increasingly untenable. 97 Labour MPs have publicly called on him to resign or set out a timetable for departure, and one cabinet minister, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, alongside four junior ministers, have resigned. Under Labour party rules, a leadership contest requires 20 per cent of Labour’s 406 MPs to nominate a challenger. Streeting is understood to have secured approximately that number, but his support base among the broader membership and trade unions is limited, as he is widely seen as representing the party’s right. Burnham, associated with the soft left, is supported by a significant number of MPs and is widely expected to command majority support among the membership.
However, the by-election will not be straightforward for Burnham. Labour held the seat in 2024 with a majority of 5,399 over Reform UK, but Electoral Calculus MRP projections now put Reform at 46 per cent and Labour at 35 per cent. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has ruled out any electoral pact with Reform, dismissing calls from Jacob Rees-Mogg and Sir Edward Leigh for the Conservatives to stand aside, meaning the right-of-centre vote is likely to split. Nonetheless, Burnham’s path to Westminster is by no means assured.
Background
Labour won the 2024 general election with a majority of 172 seats, ending fourteen years of Conservative government, but its vote share was the lowest of any majority government on record, and its support in former Red Wall constituencies had already begun to erode before polling day. Since then, a weak economy and controversy over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington eroded confidence in the government. The May local elections proved the catalyst for open challenges to his leadership, with the party losing more than 1,100 council seats and ceding control of Wales.
Risk outlook
If Burnham wins the seat, he will almost certainly enter the leadership race and, given his standing with the membership and the trade unions, is likely to become the next prime minister. A Burnham premiership would carry electoral advantages, given his popularity in northern England and a demonstrated ability to combat Reform. There are, however, risks. His suggestion in September 2025 that Britain was too much “in hock to the bond markets” raised concerns about his approach to fiscal discipline. However, Burnham has moderated his stance and is unlikely to pursue any radical policies.
If Burnham loses, the picture is more complicated. Starmer could attempt to stay on, although the more likely outcome is a protracted contest between Streeting and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner. Such a contest could expose the party’s factional divisions at the moment it needs to present a coherent opposition to Reform UK’s advance. The party would enter such a contest without a clear successor, without a strategic direction, with a faltering economy and with a general election three years away.