Americas: Right-wing de la Espriella sworn in as president in Colombia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Colombia, on 7 August right-wing President Abelardo de la Espriella was sworn in, pledging to restore security, revive the oil and gas sector and reduce state spending. He ruled out further peace talks with armed groups, instead promising a tougher military response to criminal and “narco-terrorist” organisations and pledging to eradicate coca cultivation using aerial herbicides. Washington stated it plans to provide US$1bln in security assistance, signalling strong bilateral support for his agenda. However, violence by armed groups remains an immediate challenge. On 8 August a car bomb attributed to FARC dissidents injured two security guards in Cauca department, highlighting persistent insecurity in the southwest. De la Espriella is expected to prioritise security and anti-corruption measures, alongside energy-sector reforms and fiscal consolidation. His administration will face opposition from a divided Congress and armed-group violence, potentially limiting the pace of reform.
Click here to access Colombia’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Anti-corruption campaign continues in Malaysia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Malaysia, on 7 August the Kuala Lumpur Sessions Court postponed the reading of corruption charges against former prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob to 27 August, after he was hospitalised with a suspected arrhythmia. Ismail, who led Malaysia from August 2021 to November 2022 and remains a senior United Malays National Organisation figure, is accused of corruption and money laundering tied to the alleged misuse of promotional and publicity funds. Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) probe uncovered roughly RM170m (US$40m) in cash and 16kg of gold bullion linked to his former aides. He is the third former prime minister investigated for corruption since Anwar Ibrahim took office. Anwar denies that he is using graft investigations to sideline rivals. The prosecution’s insistence on proceeding despite Ismail’s hospitalisation, highlights the risk of further corruption charges largely targeting members of the opposition.
Click here to access Malaysia’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Trial with Armenian Apostolic Church head Karekin II begins
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest
In Armenia, on 7 August the trial of the head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Catholicos Karekin II, began, marking the first time the head of the Church has faced criminal charges in the country’s modern history. Karekin II, together with six other senior church officials, is charged with obstructing the enforcement of a court decision. They face up to two years in prison if convicted. The case is linked to the Church’s refusal to reinstate Bishop Gevorg Saroyan – a supporter of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – after the court ordered his reinstatement following his dismissal in January. The hearing lasted only 30 minutes, as the judge withdrew from the case due to a conflict of interest. It remained unclear when the trial would resume. However, the trial period is likely to increase civil unrest risks, particularly if Karekin II is convicted.
Click here to access Armenia’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Political instability high in Kosovo as parliament fails to constitute legislature by deadline
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; governance; political impasse; political polarisation; political uncertainty; government instability
In Kosovo, on 8 August an opposition MP threw eggs at acting PM Albin Kurti after parliament again failed to constitute the legislature, following another request by Kurti for more time to negotiate the appointment of a new president. This came despite the 7 August constitutional deadline to elect parliamentary leadership. The opposition accused Kurti of abusing institutions. Kurti is playing for time to reach a compromise with other parties, as failure to elect a president within two months of parliament’s inauguration would trigger another snap election. Talks remain difficult, with the head of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), Lumir Abdixhiku, stating that the LDK and Kurti’s Vetevendosje party remained “very, very, very far” from reaching a deal. High political polarisation will sustain political stability risks in the long term, while another snap vote cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access Kosovo’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey sign defence pact
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; war at sea; policy uncertainty; targeted attacks; regional escalation
In Saudi Arabia, on 8 August Islamabad, Riyadh and Ankara signed a defence pact similar to NATO’s Article 5, stipulating that an attack on one member would be treated as an attack on all. The agreement formalises closer security cooperation and could expand to include Egypt and other regional states. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that the pact was not directed at Iran, while Riyadh is seeking to diversify its security partnerships amid reduced reliance on Washington. The agreement is likely to strengthen deterrence against further Iranian or Iranian-aligned attacks on Saudi territory and critical infrastructure in the short term. However, renewed attacks could test the pact’s mutual defence provisions and increase pressure on Ankara and Islamabad to respond, raising the risk of wider regional confrontation. Continued Iranian attacks may accelerate military coordination and further regional alignment against Tehran.
Click here to access Saudi Arabia’s, and here Turkey’s and here Pakistan’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: 31 injured in police crackdown as political tensions rise in Angola
Sectors: all
Key risks: political violence; civil unrest; political polarisation; disruptive unrest
In Angola, on 8 August at least 31 people were injured when the police stopped protesters near the headquarters of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) in Uige, Uige province. Police surrounded the opposition party’s provincial headquarters to block a youth-wing event marking the 92nd anniversary of late UNITA founder Jonas Savimbi, firing tear gas and shotgun ammunition before erecting barriers and blocking access. Political tensions continue to rise as the 2027 general elections approach, which will likely be the most contentious one in the country’s post-independence history. As political campaigns and rallies are set to intensify, there is a heightened risk of state use of security forces to repress UNITA and other opposition parties, increasing civil unrest risks in the coming months. Politically driven clashes and arrests cannot be ruled out in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Angola’s Global Intake country profile.