Americas: Government and ELN guerrilla to conclude third round of peace talks in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency; targeted attacks; violent clashes; violent crime; kidnapping In Colombia, on 8 June the government and the leftist ELN guerrilla group are set to conclude the ongoing third round of peace talks – which began on […]
Date first published: 30/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land Risk development On 21 May members of the Russian anti-Kremlin partisan groups that have contributed to the fight against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russia Legion – crossed the border from Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast into Kozinka […]
Americas: Government rules out cash compensation after seizing private firm’s railway in Mexico Sectors: transport; all Key Risks: business risk; confiscation; frustration of process In Mexico, on 24 May leftist President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) stated that government compensation to Grupo Mexico would not include cash after his government “temporarily” seized part of the […]
Date first published: 18/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; civil unrest; coup d’état Risk development Pita Limjaroenrat – the leader of the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) – has claimed the right to form the next government following the party’s unprecedented victory in the 14 May general election. On 18 […]
Americas: Ecuador’s President Lasso dissolves National Assembly; political risks on the rise Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political instability In Ecuador, on 17 May conservative President Guillermo Lasso issued a decree dissolving the unicameral National Assembly amid impeachment proceedings against him for alleged embezzlement in connection with a contract at state-owned oil transportation company […]
Date first published: 16/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest, political violence, economic crisis Risk development Pakistan is facing the greatest threat to its internal stability since 1971 – with the military-dominated system of government challenged. The arrest of former prime minister Imran Khan outside an Islamabad court on 9 May triggered a wave […]
Americas: Tension over new asylum rules in US rises following lifting of Title 42 restrictions Sectors: all Key Risks: social unrest; policy uncertainty In the United States (US), on 11 May Title 42 regulations were lifted and new restrictions were implemented amid efforts to prevent migrants from crossing illegally at its southern border with Mexico. […]
Date first published: 04/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; civil unrest Risk description On 23 April Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry announced that it would set up a checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor – the only transit route that connects Armenia and the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Baku claimed that Yerevan had “abused […]
Americas: Far-right, centre-right parties win vote to lead Chile’s constitutional rewrite Sectors: all Key Risks: policy and regulatory uncertainty; political instability In Chile, far-right and centre-right parties will lead the Constitutional Council which will draft the country’s new constitution – scheduled to be put to referendum on 17 December. On 7 May Chileans voted to […]
Date first published: 02/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; economic policy; civil unrest Risk development The 14 May presidential and parliamentary elections are expected to be the most contested in Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20-year rule – initially as prime minister and now as President. Turkey is grappling with a protracted economic crisis, […]
Americas: US to allow sale of Venezuela’s US-based refiner Citgo to settle creditor claims Sectors: all; energy; mining Key Risks: sanctions; business risks In the US, on 1 May reports emerged indicating that the Justice Department had decided to no longer block the court-ordered sale of PDV Holding’s shares. PDV Holding is the US-based subsidiary […]
Date first published: 25/04/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political polarisation; civil unrest Risk development In January 2016 Donald Trump, then running for the Republican nomination for president, claimed that he could “shoot somebody” and not lose votes. Trump has not shot anyone, but criminal charges, a civil suit for sexual assault, allegations that […]