Date first published: 15/11/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; political violence Risk development On 3 November former prime minister and chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan was shot in an assassination attempt in Wazirabad, Punjab province. Reports indicate that a gunman shot at Khan’s container-mounted-truck six times, with the former […]
Americas: Democrats perform better than expected, retain Senate in US midterm elections Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In the US, the Democrats performed better than expected in the midterm elections as they retained control of the Senate, even winning a seat in Pennsylvania previously held by Republicans. The Republicans look likely to […]
Date first published: 08/11/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy continuity; regulatory uncertainty; political instability; political violence; civil unrest Risk development Leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly won the 30 October presidential runoff – arguably the most polarised election in Brazil’s history. The historic comeback is one of several political shifts […]
Americas: Violent power struggle between government and criminal gangs to continue in Haiti Sectors: fuel distribution; all Key Risks: violent clashes; attacks; looting; supply chain disruption In Haiti, the violent power struggle between the government and criminal gangs is set to continue. On 6 November Jimmy ‘Barbecue’ Cherizier, the leader of the G9 coalition of […]
Date first published: 27/10/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; economic risks Risk Development The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing saw President Xi Jinping break decades of precedent and secure a historic third term as General Secretary. His accruement of political power came after successive breaches of […]
Americas: Opposition-led strike set to continue in Bolivia’s Santa Cruz department Sectors: agriculture; farming; cargo; transport Key Risks: disruptive civil unrest; road blockades; violent clashes; export restrictions In Bolivia, protests featuring road blockades are expected to continue across Santa Cruz department as an opposition-led strike enters its second week. On 30 October local media reported […]
Date first published: 25/10/2022 Key sectors: tourism; construction; private property; energy; cargo transport; security forces Key risks: arson attacks; land occupations; disruptive blockades; civil unrest Risk development A significant uptick in indigenous Mapuche-related violence has been observed in the southern provinces of Neuquen and Rio Negro. On 14 October at least two hooded, armed […]
Americas: Brazil’s presidential runoff on track to become the most polarised in country’s history Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; regulatory uncertainty; political instability; political violence; civil unrest In Brazil, the presidential runoff scheduled for 30 October is on track to become the most polarised in the country’s history. Although former leftist president Luiz Inacio […]
Date first published: 18/10/2022 Key sectors: energy; military; economy Key risks: policy; economic Risk development On 5 October OPEC+ members, spearhead by Saudi Arabia, decided to cut oil production in a bid to raise falling prices. Non-OPEC member countries, including Russia, are part of OPEC +. The United States (US) immediately responded by accusing […]
Americas: Mapuche-related violence set to continue to increase in southern Argentina Sectors: all; tourism; construction; private property Key Risks: arson attacks; land occupations; disruptive, violent unrest; political violence In Argentina, indigenous Mapuche-related violence is on the upward trend. On 14 October at least two hooded, armed assailants held a watchman at gunpoint and burnt heavy […]
Date first published: 11/10/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; political violence; political instability; policy uncertainty Risk development On 30 September Captain Ibrahim Toure launched a coup in the capital Ouagadougou and deposed military leader Lieutenant-Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba. By midnight, Toure dissolved the transitional government and suspended the constitution. Toure’s putsch came just nine […]
Americas: Colombian government and ELN guerrillas to resume formal peace talks in November Sectors: all; oil and gas; electricity Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency; targeted attacks; kidnapping In Colombia, on 4 October President Gustavo Petro’s government and the leftist ELN guerrillas announced that formal peace talks between the two parties would resume in November. Norway, Venezuela […]
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