Americas: Uncertainty over the future of ELN peace talks to persist Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency In Colombia, uncertainty over the future of the currently suspended peace talks between the government and the ELN guerrillas is likely to persist given a spike in ELN attacks. On 10 February President Juan Manuel Santos reiterated that […]
Americas: US considering sanctioning Venezuelan oil to increase pressure on Maduro Sectors: all, particularly oil and gas Key Risks: sanctions; default; economic collapse US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stated that the US is considering imposing sanctions on Venezuelan oil to increase pressure on President Nicolas Maduro to ‘return to the constitution’ and stop […]
Americas: Ecuador to held referendum on constitutional reform Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability; regulatory changes In Ecuador, a government-backed referendum on seven questions, five of which entail amending the constitution, is scheduled to take place on 4 February. Amongst President Lenin Moreno’s proposals is the elimination of indefinite re-election, a move that […]
Americas: Court to decide on Lula da Silva’s appeal against conviction Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political instability; corruption fallout In Brazil, on 24 January a court in the southern city of Porto Alegre is scheduled to decide on an appeal from former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against his conviction to nine […]
Americas: Government and ELN to discuss bilateral ceasefire extension Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency In Colombia, the government and the ELN guerrillas have recently stated in separate announcements that they stand ready to potentially renew the bilateral ceasefire agreement in place since 1 October 2017 which comes to an end on 9 January. On […]
Americas: Peru’s President Kuczynski to face impeachment vote Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability; governability In Peru, centre-right President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski will face an impeachment vote on 21 December triggered by bribery allegations linked to the Odebrecht corruption scandal. On 15 December Congress voted 93 to 17 to begin impeachment proceedings against […]
Americas: Protests to continue in Honduras a Orlando tries to hold on to power Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political instability Further violence and protests are likely across Honduras in the week ahead as public anger over the contentious reelection of President Juan Orlando continues. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal’s announcement on 10 December that a partial vote recount still put Orlando ahead […]
Americas: Election recount underway in Honduras Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political instability Honduras’ electoral commission is undertaking a recount of some votes cast in the 26 November presidential election after opposition candidate Salvador Nasralla accused the government of tampering with the vote. Ballots from 1,000 voting precincts reportedly showed irregularities. The opposition criticised […]
Americas: Uncertainty to persist amid controversial presidential election in Honduras Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; governability; political stability; social unrest In Honduras, the controversial presidential election held on 26 November is likely to keep uncertainty levels high at least over the coming weeks. With 57 per cent of the ballots counted, opposition centre-left candidate […]
Americas: Chile headed to presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; governability In Chile, centre-right former president Sebastian Pinera (2010–2014) will face centre-left Senator Alejandro Guillier, who is supported by most of ruling centre-left Nueva Mayoria coalition parties, in a 17 December presidential runoff. Pinera is likely to win. The 19 November first round […]
Americas: Venezuelan government to meet with creditors to discuss debt restructuring Sectors: all Key Risks: sovereign default; payment delays; political instability; sanctions In Venezuela, on 13 November the government of President Nicolas Maduro is scheduled to meet with creditors holding US$63bln in bonds to discuss plans to restructure and refinance the debt. The meeting follows […]
Americas: Extractive industries to continue to face risk of disruptive unrest across Peru Sectors: extractive industries Key Risks: disruptive blockades; violent unrest; business interruption In Peru, the extractive industries sector remains exposed to the risk of disruptive unrest. This risk is unlikely to significantly decrease over the coming months despite government efforts to strike […]
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