Americas: trial that could lead to Temer’s fall set to begin in Brazil Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; strikes and demonstrations; corruption fallout; governability In Brazil, the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) will begin the trial to define whether the 2014 Rousseff-Temer ticket should be annulled due to illegal electoral financing. The ruling could […]
Americas: Ecuador to face historic presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; social unrest In Ecuador, a historic presidential runoff is scheduled to take place on 2 April between ruling party Alianza Pais (AP) candidate Lenin Moreno and opposition centre-right Creando Oportunidades (CREO) candidate Guillermo Lasso. Even though Lasso appeared to […]
Americas: new corruption probes to stoke political instability, governability risks in Brazil Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; strikes and demonstrations; corruption fallout; governability In Brazil, President Michel Temer’s administration will likely face increased political instability and governability risks over the coming weeks and months. On 14 March General Prosecutor Rodrigo Janot requested the Supreme […]
Americas: decisive week for Gas Natural Fenosa – Electricaribe Sectors: all Key Risks: union-led disruptive unrest and strikes The coming week will be crucial for the future of Spain’s Gas Natural Fenosa’s (GNF) Colombian subsidiary Electricaribe (ECA), which has been under the control of the Colombian government since mid-November 2016. On 13 March GNF is […]
Americas: Argentina to face increased union-led unrest Sectors: all Key Risks: union-led disruptive unrest and strikes In Argentina, teachers’ unions will hold a 48-hour nationwide strike on 6-7 March, the first days of the school year, to protest against wage disputes which the government has not yet been able to resolve. Demonstrations are expected in […]
Americas: Ecuador prepares for historic presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity In Ecuador, the coming weeks will be marked by the electoral campaign ahead of the 2 April presidential runoff between ruling party Alianza Pais (AP) candidate Lenin Moreno and opposition centre-right Creando Oportunidades (CREO) candidate Guillermo Lasso. Final results from […]
Americas: Odebrecht corruption probe to intensify at regional scale Sectors: infrastructure; public works contracts Key Risks: contract cancellations/renegotiations; corruption fallout In Latin America, the investigations into Brazilian engineering conglomerate Odebrecht’s region-wide bribery scheme will continue to gain traction. On 16 February prosecutors in 11 countries signed an agreement to start a combined task force […]
Americas: Haiti’s president to be sworn-in; instability risks to persist Sectors: all Key Risks: social unrest; exposure to incidental violence; political instability In Haiti, president-elect Jovenel Moise is expected to be sworn-in on 7 February after a lengthy and controversial electoral process which began in late 2015. Moise, a businessman with no previous public […]
Americas: ELN hostage release could unblock formal peace talks Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency; political stability In Colombia, the ELN guerrillas are expected to release former congressman Odin Sanchez Montes de Oca on 2 February. The release was agreed with the government in order to formalise exploratory peace talks on 7 February in Ecuador’s […]
Americas: Trump to move ahead with renegotiation or withdrawal from NAFTA Sectors: all Key Risks: increased protectionism; economic uncertainty; reduced FDI US President Donald Trump is expected to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto to begin renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) over the […]
Americas: Nicaragua’s President Ortega sworn in for third consecutive term Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; economic hardship In Nicaragua, former Sandinista guerrilla leader Daniel Ortega took office on 10 January for a third consecutive five-year presidential term with his wife, Rosario Murillo, as vice-president. The Ortega-Murillo ticket won 72.5 per cent of the […]
Americas: further protests against the ‘gasolinazo’ expected across Mexico Sectors: oil and gas; commercial; cargo transport Key Risks: looting; violent civil unrest; disruptive blockades In Mexico, further violent unrest over the controversial 14-20 per cent hike in gasoline and fuel prices effective since 1 January should be expected over the coming days. Protests against […]
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