Date first published: 15/06/2023 Key sectors: all; oil and gas; transport; electricity Key risks: terrorism; insurgency; violent crime; targeted attacks; kidnapping Risk development On 9 June President Gustavo Petro’s government and the leftist National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group announced that they had reached a six-month nationwide bilateral ceasefire agreement effective from 3 August. […]
Date first published: 13/06/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; arbitrary detentions; civil unrest Risk development On 25 May the Constitutional Council rejected an appeal from the main opposition Candlelight Party to participate in the forthcoming general election scheduled for 23 July. The decision upheld the 15 May Election Commission ruling barring the […]
Date first published: 01/06/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: internal conflict; political stability; political violence Risk development On 19 May Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) warmly embraced President Bashar al-Assad on his arrival in the Saudi city of Jeddah to attend the Arab League summit for the first time in 11 […]
Date first published: 30/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land Risk development On 21 May members of the Russian anti-Kremlin partisan groups that have contributed to the fight against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russia Legion – crossed the border from Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast into Kozinka […]
Date first published: 18/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; civil unrest; coup d’état Risk development Pita Limjaroenrat – the leader of the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) – has claimed the right to form the next government following the party’s unprecedented victory in the 14 May general election. On 18 […]
Date first published: 16/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest, political violence, economic crisis Risk development Pakistan is facing the greatest threat to its internal stability since 1971 – with the military-dominated system of government challenged. The arrest of former prime minister Imran Khan outside an Islamabad court on 9 May triggered a wave […]
Date first published: 04/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; civil unrest Risk description On 23 April Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry announced that it would set up a checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor – the only transit route that connects Armenia and the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Baku claimed that Yerevan had “abused […]
Date first published: 02/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; economic policy; civil unrest Risk development The 14 May presidential and parliamentary elections are expected to be the most contested in Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20-year rule – initially as prime minister and now as President. Turkey is grappling with a protracted economic crisis, […]
Date first published: 25/04/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political polarisation; civil unrest Risk development In January 2016 Donald Trump, then running for the Republican nomination for president, claimed that he could “shoot somebody” and not lose votes. Trump has not shot anyone, but criminal charges, a civil suit for sexual assault, allegations that […]
Date first published: 13/04/2023 Key sectors: tourism; all Key risks: organised crime; violent crime; kidnapping; extortion; business disruption Risk development Organised and violent crime is on the rise in Mexico’s seemingly paradisiacal Caribbean beach resorts and their surrounding areas. On 16 March the United States (US) issued a travel alert warning travellers to “exercise […]
Date first published: 11/04/2023 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: inflation; supply deficit; political tensions Risk development: On 2 April Saudi-led OPEC+ stunned global markets by announcing voluntary cuts totalling 1.2m bpd. Cuts will be effective from May and will last through end-2023, depending on global economic conditions. Oil markets responded to the […]
Date first published: 04/04/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political violence; internal conflict Risk development On 27 March after 12 consecutive weeks of protests, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a pause in the legislative process of the judicial reforms launched by his government. At the same time, to prevent the government’s immediate collapse, the […]
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