Ones to Watch
Americas: Government, EMC 10-month bilateral ceasefire to take effect in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; violent clashes; violent crime; kidnapping In Colombia, on 8 October President Gustavo Petro’s government and the EMC – the country’s largest dissident former FARC rebel group – will launch peace talks in Tibu, Norte de Santander department, and […]
Americas: Argentina’s JxC opposition coalition secures governorship of Mendoza province Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; governability; political stability In Argentina, on 24 September Alfredo Cornejo from the main opposition coalition, Juntos por el Cambio (JxC), won the governorship of Mendoza province in the last provincial governor election ahead of the 22 October general elections. […]
Americas: President-elect to call on supporters to protest efforts against MS party in Guatemala Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability In Guatemala, on 15 September president-elect Bernardo Arevalo stated that he was planning to rally his supporters in the coming days to protest repeated efforts to derail his presidency before he is set […]
Americas: Heightened risk of civil unrest in Chile on 50th anniversary of 1973 coup Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; business interruption; political violence In Chile, on 10 September at least 11 people were arrested as thousands – including President Gabriel Boric – participated in demonstrations in the capital Santiago on the eve of the […]
Americas: Main parties due to announce their 2024 presidential candidates in Mexico Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Mexico, on 3 September the opposition alliance – made up of the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) – is set to announce […]
Americas: Heightened risk of political violence in Ecuador ahead of 20 August snap elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; policy uncertainty; political stability In Ecuador, on 20 August voters will choose the next president and lawmakers in snap elections triggered by President Guillermo Lasso’s 17 May dissolution of the National Assembly (NA) by decree […]
Americas: Argentina to decide its presidential candidates in 13 August primaries Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy uncertainty In Argentina, on 13 August the presidential primaries – for which voting is mandatory for all citizens aged 18-70 – will be held. The primaries tend to be an accurate indicator of the outcome of the […]
Americas: Government, ELN six-month bilateral ceasefire to take effect in Colombia Sectors: all; oil and gas; transport; electricity Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency; violent crime; targeted attacks; kidnapping In Colombia, on 3 August a six-month nationwide bilateral ceasefire agreement – announced on 9 June – between President Gustavo Petro’s government and the leftist National Liberation Army […]
Americas: Mayor, 11 inmates killed as uptick in violent crime consolidates in Ecuador Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; violent crime; gang-related crime In Ecuador, on 23 July Mayor Agustin Intriago and one other person were killed and four people – including two assailants – were injured in a shooting attack by an identified criminal […]
Americas: Fresh, disruptive anti-government unrest expected in Peru Sectors: all; mining; cargo transport Key Risks: civil unrest; business interruption; political violence; political stability In Peru, on 14 July President Dina Boluarte’s government pledged to use only legitimate force and to guarantee demonstrators’ safety in anti-government protests scheduled for 19 July. The pledge came after the […]
Americas: Government and dissident former FARC rebel faction to open peace talks in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; violent clashes; violent crime; kidnapping In Colombia, on 9 July President Gustavo Petro’s government and the Estado Mayor Central (EMC) dissident former FARC rebel group agreed to open peace talks, though an official start date […]
Americas: Protests likely as Brazil’s federal electoral court bans Bolsonaro from office until 2030 Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest In Brazil, on 30 June five out of seven federal electoral court (TSE) justices ruled that far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro abused his power and misused the media in the October 2022 election – which […]
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