Ones to Watch
Americas: Far-right Jair Bolsonaro likely to win Brazil’s polarised presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest; policy changes In Brazil, a highly polarised presidential runoff between right-wing frontrunner Jair Bolsonaro and leftist Workers’ Party candidate (PT) Fernando Haddad will be held on 28 October. Former army captain Bolsonaro was polling at almost […]
Americas: Court rulings affecting mining projects in Chile Sectors: mining Key Risks: frustration of process; contract scrutiny In Chile, court rulings have recently affected several mining-related projects. On 11 October the Constitutional Court suspended a deal allowing China’s Tianqi Lithium to buy a 24 per cent stake in Chile’s SQM after agreeing to hear arguments […]
Americas: Costa Rica’s controversial tax reform moves forward; strike to continue Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; strikes; policy changes In Costa Rica, Congress approved a controversial tax reform on 5 October amid ongoing protests from public sector workers. The government-backed Strengthening Public Finance bill is aimed at addressing a fiscal crisis. The Constitutional Chamber […]
Americas: General elections in Brazil to lead to polarised presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political instability; civil unrest; governability In Brazil, general elections are scheduled to take place on 7 October with no presidential candidate expected to secure the 50 per cent needed to avoid a runoff on 28 October. Far-right frontrunner […]
Americas: Labour unions launch 36-hour strike against Argentina’s government Sectors: all Key Risks: strikes; civil unrest; governability; policy continuity In Argentina, labour unions and social movements plan to launch a 36-hour long strike on 24 September led by the Workers’ Central Union (CTA) which the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), Argentina’s largest labour union, plans […]
Americas: Showdown between Peru’s executive and legislative powers to intensify Sectors: all Key Risks: governability; policy continuity; political instability In Peru, President Martin Vizcarra stepped-up pressure on the opposition-controlled Congress to approve four government-backed anti-corruption bills which require a constitutional reform. On 16 September Vizcarra asked for an extraordinary Congress session to take place on […]
Americas: Brazil’s election campaign to continue to heat up Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political instability; civil unrest In Brazil, the election campaign ahead of the 7 October general election is expected to continue to heat up. The leftist Workers’ Party (PT) has until 11 September to name imprisoned former president Luiz Inacio Lula […]
Americas: Unprecedented peso rout triggers stricter fiscal deficit targets to contain crisis Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; civil unrest; export taxes In Argentina, President Mauricio Macri announced a cabinet reshuffle and stricter fiscal deficit targets for 2019 following an unprecedented rout on the peso that led the central bank to raise its benchmark rate […]
Americas: Lula’s presidential candidacy formally submitted; likely to stoke further controversy Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political instability; civil unrest On 15 August in Brazil, the leftist Workers’ Party (PT) formally registered imprisoned former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate for the upcoming 7 October general elections. Over the coming […]
Americas: UN-backed Commission asks to revoke Guatemala’s President immunity Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; corruption fallout; political instability; armed clashes In Guatemala, the Attorney General and the UN-backed Commission against Corruption and Impunity asked Congress on 10 August to revoke President Jimmy Morales’ immunity from prosecution, which would enable an investigation over an alleged […]
Americas: Centre-right Duque to take office in Colombia; ELN peace talks at risk Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; terrorism; targeted attacks; kidnapping In Colombia, centre-right president-elect Ivan Duque will take office on 7 August. Although the new administration is expected to guarantee stability and broad policy continuity, Duque will be tested on economic performance, […]
Americas: President Vizcarra proposes referendum on reforms to tackle Peruvian corruption Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; corruption fallout; political instability In Peru, President Martin Vizcarra urged the opposition-run Congress to call a referendum on judicial and political reforms aimed at eradicating institutional corruption. The vote would include judicial reforms and a ban on private […]
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