Date first published: 28/08/2025
Key sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; political violence; political polarization; arbitrary arrests; governance; civil unrest
Risk development
On 14 August Aydin Metropolitan Mayor Ozlem Cercioglu and three district mayors officially joined President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), citing internal divisions within the Republican People’s Party (CHP). This move came after a series of defections, with nine opposition mayors aligning with the AKP during its 24th-anniversary celebrations. The CHP accused Erdogan’s administration of exerting undue pressure on its members, alleging legal threats and political coercion to facilitate these shifts into AKP.
The defections occurred amid a nationwide ongoing government crackdown on opposition figures, including the 19 March arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and the subsequent arrests of 17 CHP mayors and dozens of party officials from April until August. Imamoglu, a prominent opposition figure and potential presidential candidate, was detained on charges of corruption and terrorism. His detention sparked nationwide protests, particularly among youth and civil society groups, calling for democratic safeguards. The CHP framed his arrest as Erdogan’s strategy to eliminate political rivals and suppress dissent.
Why it matters
The defections highlight the pressures facing opposition parties in Turkey and could weaken the CHP’s ability to mobilise support at both local and national levels. The AKP’s consolidation of power may impact voter sentiment, particularly in traditionally competitive provinces, and signals potential challenges for electoral competitiveness. Perceptions of intimidation or coercion could also further polarise Turkish politics. The defections also raise concerns about the erosion of democratic norms and the shrinking space for political opposition. The CHP’s allegations of coercion and legal threats suggest a deliberate strategy by the AKP to weaken opposition parties, which could have long-term implications for political pluralism and democratic governance in the country.
Background
Turkey’s political landscape has become increasingly restrictive under Erdogan, with repeated legal, administrative and judicial measures targeting opposition figures and parties. Local elections often serve as indicators for national sentiment, making high-profile defections especially significant. The CHP, historically a leading opposition force, faces external pressures from the state and internal divisions over strategy, leadership and candidate selection. The defections also come at a time when the AKP is seeking to strengthen its position ahead of the 2028 presidential elections, a vote in which Erdogan himself is ineligible to run due to term limits. By incorporating opposition mayors into its ranks, the AKP aims to broaden its base and present a united front, leveraging the defections to bolster the group’s influence. Absorbing additional opposition mayors allows centralised control over municipal budgets, local governance and service delivery, hence weakening the CHP and signalling that the ruling party can maintain dominance even without Erdogan on the ballot. Erdogan may seek to circumvent term limits directly or indirectly through legal and institutional avenues or by endorsing a loyal AKP successor. However, these moves may also alienate voters who perceive them as opportunistic or undemocratic.
Risk outlook
Such defections are likely to persist in the coming weeks, as opposition parties struggle to present a unified front in the 2028 elections, very likely reinforcing AKP dominance. Civil unrest and mass mobilisation remain a latent risk, as armed confrontations with security forces cannot be ruled out during protests in urban hubs like Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara. While AKP consolidation is likely to secure short-term gains, the ongoing political repression risk is fuelling public resentment and stoking long-term societal tensions.
Voter perceptions of political coercion are expected to dampen turnout and exacerbate polarisation. Local-level realignments may also embolden AKP to pursue further legislative or administrative measures that limit opposition influence, with implications for Turkey’s broader democratic environment and political stability.