Americas: Five killed in shooting attack in Ecuador amid escalating violence
Sectors: all
Key Risks: violent clashes; targeted attacks
In Ecuador, on 24 October five people were killed and one person was injured in a shooting attack at a pool hall in Santo Domingo, Santo Domingo de los Tsachila province. Officials stated armed assailants broke into the establishment and opened fire, likely in a dispute among criminal groups. The attack came amid a spate of violence in the province – with two similar attacks in Santo Domingo in August and September, leaving 14 people killed, and another in General Villamil Playas in July, killing 10 people. The attacks are a part of a wider surge in violence nationwide, with 4,619 homicides recorded between January and June – a 47 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024. The risk of further such attacks will remain elevated as clashes between organised crime groups over territorial control intensify.
Click here to access Ecuador’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Thailand to investigate foreign-linked nominee businesses in resort destinations
Sectors: tourism; real estate
Key Risks: business disruptions; business risks; regulatory changes
In Thailand, on 27 October the Department of Business Development (DBD) launched a major crackdown on businesses that are controlled by foreigners, but officially owned by illegal local proxy shareholders, on Koh Pha Ngan Island, Surat Thani province. The investigation followed the 15 October discovery of over 7,000 foreign businesses operations without government approval – violating the Foreign Business Act – throughout Surat Thani province, primarily on Koh Samui and Koh Pha Ngan Islands. DBD Secretary General Poonpong Naiyanapakorn stated that the businesses uncovered are mainly involved in the tourism and real estate sectors. In addition to appointing a special committee to prevent and crack down on such businesses, the DBD has created a shortlist of 1000 businesses with up to 49 per cent foreign ownership involved in “high-risk industries” to be investigated, potentially creating business risks for foreign-linked operations throughout the coming weeks.
Click here to access Thailand’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: US sanctions Russian oil majors after second Trump-Putin summit cancelled
Sectors: all; oil and gas
Key Risks: sanctions; trade friction; war-on-land
On 22 October US President Donald Trump imposed fresh sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil firms, Rosneft and Lukoil, in a sharp reversal of US policy amid Trump’s frustration with Russia’s stalling of peace talks in Ukraine. However, Trump rejected reports of US approval for Ukraine’s long-range strikes into Russia and stated he was not ready to provide Kyiv with Tomahawk missiles. This came after on 21 October a planned summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was cancelled over Moscow’s hardline demands in peace talks. Global oil prices rose by over 5 per cent after the US sanctions. US sanctions raise pressure on China and India to suspend their imports of Russian oil or seek new ways to circumvent sanctions. The sanctions’ effectiveness will depend on enforcement and remains uncertain. Russia remains unlikely to agree to a peace deal in the short-term.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Voters in the Netherlands to elect new parliament in 29 October snap elections
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy uncertainty
In the Netherlands, on 29 October voters will head to the polls to elect their new parliament in a snap vote triggered by the 3 June collapse of Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s government. The far-right Freedom party’s (PVV) of Geert Wilders will likely remain the largest party in parliament, with polls suggesting it could win around 20 per cent of the vote. However, most parties have already ruled out cooperating with the party due to its extreme political views and unreliability as a coalition partner, pointing to its June withdrawal from the government following a dispute over migration. The GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA) coalition is likely to come second, with polls putting it at around 16 per cent, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) and the centrist liberal D66 are set to take third and fourth place. A multi-party coalition is likely, with negotiations likely protracted.
Click here to access the Netherlands’ Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Anti-pollution protests expand from Gabes to Tunis in Tunisia
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest; industrial action; political violence; governance; violent clashes; economic risks; business disruptions
In Tunisia, on 25 October hundreds protested in Tunis against the severe pollution tied to the state-run Tunisian Chemical Group (CGT) complex located in Gabes, Gabes province. Residents blame the plant for rising respiratory illnesses, mass hospitalisations and marine degradation following reports of toxic emissions and phosphogypsum dumps. President Kais Saied described the situation as an “environmental assassination”, but activists rejected his response and demanded the full closure of the facility. Protests began on 10 October and escalated amid a general strike on 21 October that shut schools and businesses in Gabes. Sustained unaddressed grievances may trigger broader social unrest and place significant pressure on Saied’s government for structural reforms of industry and governance. Momentum is likely to spread in the short term across provinces facing socio-economic hardships such as Sfax, Gafsa, Tataouine, Bizerte and Sidi Bouzid, with security forces’ forceful responses raising risks of violent escalation.
Click here to access Tunisia’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Four killed in protests in Cameroon as Biya wins 12 October election
Sectors: all
Key risks: disruptive unrest; civil unrest; political violence; political stability
In Cameroon, on 27 October incumbent President Paul Biya won the 12 October presidential elections. The protests broke out ahead of the announcement of election results, with the Constitutional Court declaring President Paul Biya’s victory and re-election, with four civilians killed and several others injured, in Douala, Littoral region, as well as Garoua, Nord region, and the capital Yaounde, between 22 and 26 October. Clashes were reported between supporters of opposition figure Issa Tchiroma Bakary and police forces in Douala and Garoua, with protests reported in 10 cities across four regions. Civil unrest has continued to intensify following Tchiroma’s declaration of electoral victory on 14 October. Civil unrest risks are highly likely to increase in the coming days in the wake of Biya’s victory, with Tchiroma calling for demonstrations in major cities to demand the President’s resignation.
Click here to access Cameroon’s Global Intake country profile.