Americas: Hundreds protest deadly police raid in Brazil
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest
In Brazil, on 31 October hundreds of civilians – including labour unions and human rights groups – protested in the Penha favela complex in Rio de Janeiro. Protesters demanded an end to “military incursions” into the favelas, the resignation of state Governor Claudio Castro and accountability for the 28 October police raid targeting the Red Command gang in the Penha and Complexo de Alemao favelas, in which 121 people were killed. Castro has deemed the operation a success, with the government stating that out of the 99 victims identified, 42 had outstanding arrest warrants and 78 had prior criminal records. The operation has sparked accusations of excessive force, with human rights groups calling for an independent investigation. With the raid intensifying national debate around the precedent of police brutality, rising public discontent is expected. The risk of further such isolated protests will be heightened.
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Asia Pacific: Thailand and Cambodia begin demilitarisation of disputed border
Sectors: all
Key Risks: violent clashes; accidental conflict
In Thailand, on 29 October military officials agreed with their Cambodian counterparts to a timeline outlining a three-phase withdrawal of weaponry along the disputed border. The decision followed the formalisation of the ceasefire between Bangkok and Phnom Penh at the 26 October ASEAN summit held in Kuala Lumpur. However, on 31 October ultranationalist groups from Thailand protested in Khok Sung, Sa Kaeo province, attempting to evict Cambodian refugees that fled the country’s 1967-1975 civil war. Nevertheless, the first phase of de-escalation, which included the withdrawal of heavy rocket launchers, began on 3 November and is expected to finish on 21 November. A full demilitarisation of border zones is expected by 31 December. While de-escalation measures are expected to hold, the risk of nationalist groups disrupting the peace process remains moderate in the intermediate term.
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Eurasia: Russian forces push to capture Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 31 October Kyiv deployed special forces to Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, amid an intense battle over the city. This came after on 28 October around 200 Russian troops reportedly penetrated the city amid Moscow’s intensified effort to capture the logistical hub. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated the same day that Ukrainian forces were outnumbered in the city eight to one, with Ukrainian military officials describing the situation as “difficult”. Information about battlefield developments vary across sources as the situation remains extremely fluid. Russian forces have been seeking to capture the city – dubbed the gateway to Donetsk – for over a year. If captured, it would be the most important territorial gain in Ukraine since Russian forces captured Avdiivka in February 2025, allowing Moscow to advance towards Kramatorsk and Slavyansk – its two primary war goals.
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Europe: France’s parliament rejects proposed wealth tax, raising fears over government’s survival
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy uncertainty
In France, on 31 October centrist, conservative and far-right lawmakers rejected several left-wing proposals, including a 2 per cent tax on wealth of more than EUR100m (US$117m), sparking anger from the key opposition Socialist Party. The Socialists had previously threatened to topple Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s fragile government on 29 September if it did not introduce a new wealth tax. However, the left-wing party ultimately spared Lecornu’s minority government from a 16 October no-confidence vote following his concessions on pensions and welfare benefits. Lecornu risks failing to pass the 2026 budget without the Socialists’ support, which has been cast into doubt following parliament’s rejection of the proposed wealth tax. Parliament remains divided over proposals to boost revenues amid pressure to cut a record-high deficit. Political instability will remain high.
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MENA: Israel warns of escalation after four killed in southern Lebanon
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; regional escalation
In Lebanon, on 2 November at least four people were killed and three injured in an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrike in Kfarsir, Nabatiyah province, marking another violation of the 27 November 2024 ceasefire. An IDF official accused the victims of being Hizbullah members. He added that Hizbullah is regaining its strength and has smuggled hundreds of short-range missiles from Syria, warning that it may strike Beirut’s southern suburb again if the group is not disarmed. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that Beirut must enforce Hizbullah’s disarmament and removal from the south of the country, adding that IDF enforcement “will continue and even intensify.” On 30 October Lebanese President Joseph Aoun ordered the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to confront any future IDF incursions. IDF strikes are expected to expand, escalating LAF-IDF tensions, especially in border areas.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Thousands killed as RSF capture last SAF stronghold in western Sudan
Sectors: all
Key risks: governability; civil war; communal violence; political violence; violent clashes
In Sudan, thousands of civilians were reportedly killed by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El-Fasher, North Darfur state, since they captured the city on 26 October. RSF fighters reportedly targeted hospitals and displacement camps, with 460 civilians killed in an RSF attack on Saudi Hospital maternity ward on 29 October. Beyond the violence against civilians on the ground, the capture of El-Fasher increases the risk of partition in the near future. The RSF’s civilian government now controls all five regional capitals of the wider Darfur region, allowing it to consolidate power and administrative control over the western states. Fighting in the west still persists, with remaining pockets of resistance from Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) allies continuing to contest RSF control in North Darfur and West Darfur states. The RSF are increasingly likely to declare a partitioned state in the western states.
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