Americas: Chile to head to polls on 16 November for presidential election
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy uncertainty
In Chile, on 16 November citizens will head to polling stations to vote in the presidential election – the first since 2012 in which voting is compulsory. On 27 October a Centro de Estudios Publicos (CEP) poll showed the ruling leftist coalition candidate, communist Jeannette Jara, leading the first-round vote with 25 per cent support, ahead of far-right Jose Antonio Kast with 23 per cent and right-wing Evelyn Matthei with 12 per cent. Despite her first-round lead, the poll suggested Jara would lose in a runoff against either Kast or Matthei. Kast has gained momentum with a tough-on-crime agenda, while Matthei’s campaign focused on “order, progress and hope”. The reinstatement of compulsory voting may boost turnout, but dissatisfaction with the government and a polarised electorate make the outcome uncertain. A runoff is set for 14 December if no candidate wins a majority – which appears likely.
Click here to access Chile’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: ICC issues arrest warrant against Philippine senator Ronald Dela Rosa
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest
On 8 November the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for the Philippines’ Senator Ronald Dela Rosa, citing his involvement in former president Rodrigo Duterte’s “war on drugs”, believed to have killed more than 30,000 people during his term between 2016 and 2022. Dela Rosa previously served as Duterte’s national police chief before launching his bid for a senate seat in 2018 and securing re-election on 12 May. While Manila is yet to verify the details regarding the ICC’s warrant, it previously cooperated with the ICC to detain Duterte himself on 7 March. As Dela Rosa is likely to be arrested in the coming weeks, the risk of short term Senate instability and civil unrest by Duterte’s supporters will remain elevated, particularly in the pro-Duterte Partido Demokratiko Pilipino party’s stronghold in the Davao region.
Click here to access the Philippines’ Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: US to increase cooperation with Central Asian countries following C5+1 summit
Sectors: all; aviation; mining infrastructure; agriculture; information technology
Key Risks: cargo transport; economic and business
On 6 November Central Asian countries held the C5+1 summit with the US in Washington to boost trade and strengthen Washington’s role in the region. Following the summit, US President Donald Trump announced that Uzbekistan would invest over US$100bln in the US over the next 10 years, including in critical minerals, aviation, infrastructure, agriculture and information technology. Kazakhstan, for its part, announced 30 deals with a collective value of US$17.2bln and signed the Abraham Accords. Astana, Tashkent and Dushanbe also agreed to buy up to 37 Boeing airplanes from the US. The outcomes of the summit are indicative of Washington’s increasing interest in the region, which has the potential to incentivise infrastructure development, including the Middle Corridor, as well as increase economic competition among great powers in the area.
Click here to access Kazakhstan’s and here to access Uzbekistan’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: China eases Nexperia chip export curbs in relief for automakers; tensions remain high
Sectors: semiconductors; automotive
Key Risks: trade disputes; business disputes; business disruptions
On 9 November China announced it granted exemptions to export controls on Nexperia’s chips for civilian use, a move that will ease pressure on the global automotive industry, particularly in the EU. Beijing had halted the deliveries after on 30 September the Dutch government seized the Netherlands-based Nexperia, claiming its Chinese parent firm Wingtech planned to relocate European production to China. The move prompted Beijing to cut Nexperia’s finished chip exports – packaged in China – sparking chaos across Europe’s automaker industry deeply reliant on them. The Hague’s unprecedented seizure – which reportedly followed US pressure – came amid the ongoing US-China trade war and Washington’s curbs on the export of sensitive chip technology to Beijing. Despite the new exemptions, tensions between Beijing, the Netherlands and EU will remain high over the dispute. Further such seizures and trade disputes cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access the Netherlands’ and here to access China’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Early voting begins in Iraq ahead of the 11 November parliamentary elections
Sectors: all
Key risks: political uncertainty; political stability; civil unrest; political violence; economic risks; business risks
In Iraq and the KRI, early voting opened on 9 November for 1.3 million security personnel and 26,500 internally displaced people (IDPs) ahead of parliamentary elections on 11 November. With over 7,768 candidates competing for 329 seats, concerns about turnout and integrity persist. Voting will be divided along sectarian and ethnic lines, with Shi’ah provinces favouring Prime Minister Mohammae Shia al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development party, Sunni voters backing Taqaddum and Siyada and Kurds supporting the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) or Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Intra-Shi’ah competition continues, with Muqtada al-Sadr’s boycott limiting political renewal. Al-Sudani seeks a second term, but post-election talks will determine the premiership, likely testing relations with Tehran or Washington amid US-Iran regional tensions. Post-election fragmentation may prolong government formation. Stability will likely be maintained, but governance will remain weak, reforms limited and localised unrest or militia flashpoints possible in the medium term.
Click here to access Iraq’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: UNHRC to hold session on Sudan on 14 November
Sectors: all
Key risks: governability; civil war; communal violence; political violence; violent clashes
In Sudan, the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHCR) announced on 6 November that it would hold an urgent session to discuss developments in El-Fasher, North Darfur state, on 14 November. The city – the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)’s last stronghold in the Darfur region – has experienced an escalation of attacks since it fell to the Rapid Support Forces on 26 October, with civilians experiencing “unimaginable atrocities,” according to the UN. Demand for a ceasefire by the Quad mediation group – comprising Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and led by the US – has been agreed to by the RSF, as SAF resistance wanes. The prospective two-stage ceasefire agreement will enable the delivery of critical humanitarian assistance with hopes it will lead to a political process to end the conflict. However, prioritisation of a military solution diminishes the likelihood of its success.
Click here to access Sudan’s Global Intake country profile.