Americas: Remains of one of 10 kidnapped miners found in Mexico
Sectors: all; mining
Key Risks: gang violence; kidnapping; business risks
In Mexico, on 6 February authorities confirmed that the remains of one of the 10 kidnapped miners of the Canadian Vizsla Silver Corp company were found in Concordia, Sinaloa state. The 10 miners – including both local and foreign nationals – were kidnapped by an armed group on 23 January while working in a remote area, highlighting security vacuums along mining and rural corridors as rival factions of the Sinaloa cartel vie for territorial control in the region. Officials stated that four people have been arrested in connection with the kidnapping, with additional military and marine forces deployed to assist with search operations and dismantling cartel encampments. Vizsla Silver suspended operations at its Panuco silver and gold exploration project in Concordia in April 2025 due to ongoing security concerns. With the Sinaloa cartel infighting ongoing, risks of further kidnappings and sustained operational disruptions in the region will remain elevated.
Click here to access Mexico’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Bangladesh to vote in first general election since July 2024 uprising
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political uncertainty; policy uncertainty; regulatory changes
In Bangladesh, on 12 February voters will head to the polls to vote in the country’s first general election since the July 2024 uprising that overthrew former prime minister Sheikh Hasina and the ruling Awami League (AL), which has been banned from participating. The election is expected to be highly contested, with public opinion polls currently projecting the centrist Bangladesh National Party (BNP) to be the frontrunner by a margin, potentially as high as 20 per cent. However, there remains a likelihood that the main opposition, the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and its allied parties, could pull ahead with key support from the student-aligned New Citizens’ Party (NCP). Moreover, despite the AL’s declaration of boycotting the vote, it remains possible that the AL’s politically adrift supporters could serve as a ‘wildcard’ for any party, rendering outcomes particularly uncertain.
Click here to access Bangladesh’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Shell halts investments in Kazakhstan amid lawsuits; Tengiz restores oil production
Sectors: oil and gas
Key Risks: business disruptions; business risks; regulatory changes; frustration of process
In Kazakhstan, on 5 February reports emerged that US energy giant Shell was pausing investments in the country amid growing legal disputes between Astana and Western oil majors. On 26 January Shell, Italy’s Eni and several other firms lost an arbitration case after Astana reportedly admitted its officials accepted bribes to sign off billions of dollars worth of costs during President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s era. Separately, on 9 February industry sources reported that Astana’s biggest Tengiz oil field restored production by 60 per cent from peak capacity to 550,000 barrels per day, after on 18 January a fire at the site halted production. While Astana’s legal disputes with investors in the Karachaganak and Kashagan fields raise uncertainty over the projects’ future, Chevron’s Tengiz is unlikely to face similar litigation due to its outsized economic importance. Tengiz’s output resumption will ease fears of export disruptions.
Click here to access Kazakhstan’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Serbia seeks new gas sources; ADNOC to take stake in oil firm Nis amid sale to MOL
Sectors: oil and gas
Key Risks: economic risks; business risks; business disruptions
In Serbia, on 4 February President Aleksandar Vucic stated that Belgrade was seeking new gas supply deals with EU members to reduce its reliance on Russia. This came after Belgrade failed to reach a new long-term contract with Moscow’s Gazprom in 2025, with a short-term deal reached in December 2025 set to expire on 31 March. Separately, on 19 January Hungarian energy firm MOL group announced it would purchase a majority share in Serbia’s oil firm Nis as Belgrade seeks to transfer Russian Gazprom and Gazprom Neft’s stake due to US sanctions, which came into effect on 9 October 2025 following repeated waiver extensions, forcing Russia to exit investment. On 5 February Belgrade reported that UAE-based ADNOC would take a significant minority stake in Nis. The sale to MOL will ease concerns over energy disruptions. Moscow will remain a key partner but efforts to find other suppliers will continue.
Click here to access Serbia’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Nationwide merchant strike shuts markets in Iraq in protest of sharp customs tariff hikes
Sectors: all
Key risks: business risks; business disruptions; trade disruptions; cargo transport; disruptive unrest
In Iraq, on 8 February hundreds of merchants and shop owners went on a strike in central Baghdad, in Basra and other provinces, urging the government to roll back new customs tariffs, introduced on 1 January, that have driven up costs and stalled trade. Major markets in Baghdad and Basra remain closed, while thousands of containers were stranded at Umm Qasr port, Basra province. The Federal Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on 11 February on a legal challenge to the government’s decision to raise customs tariffs. A ruling to suspend or overturn the measures is likely to de-escalate the ongoing strike, restore commercial activity and help relieve congestion at major ports. Otherwise, a broader wave of public unrest driven by declining purchasing power and rising living costs cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access Iraq’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: 170 killed in Kwara state, highlighting expanding insecurity in central Nigeria
Sectors: all
Key risks: terrorism; insurgency; communal violence; gang violence
In Nigeria, on 3 February at least 170 civilians were killed by suspected Boko Haram militants in Woro and Nuku, Kwara state. While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, it was likely conducted by the Mahmuda faction of Boko Haram, as the group operates along the border between Niger and Kwara states. Mahmuda faction has reportedly connections with local bandits and Islamist group Jama’at Nasr al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), which uses the Kainji Lake National Park as a base of operations. The attack led to major criticism of the federal government for the lack of protection for local communities, with President Bola Tinubu announcing the deployment of an army battalion to Kaiama Local Government Area, Kwara state, on 5 February. Despite military reinforcements deployed to Kwara state, armed groups will continue to destabilise the area.
Click here to access Nigeria’s Global Intake country profile.