Americas: Quito, Washington bomb drug-trafficking camp in Ecuador
Sectors: all
Key Risks: gang violence
In Ecuador, on 6 March Washington and Quito carried out a joint military operation targeting a drug-trafficking network in the Sucumbios province near the border with Colombia. Neither the US Southern Command – which encompasses 31 countries throughout Latin America – nor Ecuador’s Defence Ministry released more details, which Quito stated were classified. The operation reportedly used helicopters, river boats and drones to locate and bomb a training camp with a capacity of 50 people, belonging to the Border Command – a Colombian crime group made up of dissident former FARC rebels. About 70 per cent of drugs produced in Colombia and Peru pass through Ecuador. This marked a new phase in Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa’s “war on drugs” and came after on 3 March Quito and Washington announced they were launching joint security operations. Further such coordinated raids are expected, with a potential for retaliatory violence elevated.
Click here to access Ecuador’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: “Open war” between Afghanistan and Pakistan continues
Sectors: all
Key Risks: terrorism; regional escalation; violent clashes
In Afghanistan and Pakistan, the “open war” between the two countries entered its second week on 26 February. Both countries continued to launch cross-border strikes, with the Afghan Taliban claiming that they had killed dozens of Pakistani troops, while Islamabad claimed to have killed 527 Taliban soldiers. The conflict erupted after Islamabad launched airstrikes into Afghanistan after a series of terrorist attacks that Pakistan claims were conducted by militants that were sheltering in Afghan territory. Kabul responded by attacking Pakistani border posts on 26 February, resulting in Islamabad declaring “open war”. The UN reported that over 115,000 people have been displaced. Islamabad is unlikely to back down unless it can get firm guarantees that Kabul will take measures to combat militant groups that operate within its borders and threaten Pakistan.
Click here to access Afghanistan’s and here to access Pakistan’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Russia poised to profit from oil crisis; reports claim it provides Iran with intelligence
Sectors: all; defence; oil & gas
Key Risks: regional conflict; trade disruptions; supply chain disruptions
On 7 March reports emerged that Russia was providing intelligence to help Iran strike US assets in the Gulf region amid the escalating Middle East war that began on 28 February. On 8 March US President Donald Trump avoided confirming the reports but stated that if they were true, Russia’s support was “inconsequential.” The war has fuelled a sharp rise in oil prices to levels not seen since mid-2022 – when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted an energy crisis – with Brent reaching a high of US$119.50 per barrel on 9 March. Russia was poised to profit from the soaring energy prices and threatened to cut liquified natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe ahead of the EU’s planned ban on Russian LNG imports. On 6 March the US waived sanctions on India’s imports of Russian oil to ease the risks of disruption. Russia’s global energy position will strengthen in the short-term.
Click here to access Russia’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Synagogue in Belgium, US Embassy in Norway hit by blasts amid risk of Iranian attacks
Sectors: all
Key Risks: targeted attacks; terrorism; regional conflict
In Belgium, on 9 March a synagogue in Liege was damaged by an explosion, causing no injuries. The cause of the blast remained unclear. Counter-terrorism police launched a probe, while local officials described the incident as an act of “anti-semitism”. Separately, on 8 March the US Embassy in Oslo, Norway was hit by a blast, causing minor damage and no injuries. Authorities were considering terrorism as a possible motive. The incidents may be linked to the escalating Middle East war. Iranian-linked criminal groups are suspected of carrying out attacks on Jewish, Israeli and US targets, particularly since the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war in October 2023. In March 2025 the US sanctioned Sweden’s transnational drug-trafficking network Foxtrot for serving as a proxy of Tehran, accusing the group of an attempted IED attack on the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm in January 2025. Further such attacks are likely.
Click here to access Belgium’s and here to access Norway’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Heavy IDF strikes hit Iran’s oil facilities as the Middle East war escalates
Sectors: oil and gas
Key risks: regional escalation; war on land; war at sea; civil war; business risks
In Iran, between 7 and 8 March heavy Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrikes targeted four fuel storage facilities in Tehran and Alborz province, resulting in at least four casualties and causing large fires. These marked the first attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure since the US-Israeli strikes began on 28 February. Tel Aviv claimed the sites were used to support the military while Washington clarified it would not target energy infrastructure. Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) stated they attacked a refinery in Israel’s Haifa in retaliation, although the claim was not confirmed by Israeli authorities. Iranian attacks on oil facilities in neighbouring countries, especially in the Gulf, are highly likely in the coming days. Joint US-Israel strikes are more likely to focus on military facilities and senior leadership following the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader.
Click here to access Iran’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Political divisions deepen as new constitution signed into law in Somalia
Sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; political polarisation; governability
In Somalia, on 8 March President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a revised constitution into law to replace the 2012 provisional charter. The new constitution sets term lengths for all federal institutions to five years and clarifies powers held by federal and state institutions. Opposition politicians, including the presidents of the semi-autonomous republics of Puntland and Jubaland, heavily criticised the adoption of the new constitution and boycotted the parliamentary vote on 4 March. Opposition parties claimed that the changes to term lengths illegally extended the current government’s mandate beyond the end of March. Political disputes over the new constitution, alongside regional tensions, will increase political instability in the coming months as divisions deepen. Puntland and Jubaland are likely to continue to pursue their own agendas outside of Mogadishu’s purview. Growing tensions will also undermine efforts to hold nationwide elections in 2026 as well as ongoing counter-terrorism operations.
Click here to access Somalia’s Global Intake country profile.