Americas: Government calls for early talks on Glencore’s Cerrejon coal mine closure in Colombia
Sectors: mining
Key Risks: frustration of process; business risks; policy uncertainty; regulatory changes
In Colombia, on 8 May President Gustavo Petro’s government urged Glencore to begin talks with local authorities and community representatives in La Guajira over the potential future closure of the Cerrejon coal mine, one of the world’s largest open-pit coal operations, despite its concession running until 2034. The Ministry of Mines and Energy stated that discussions would cover energy investment, workforce retraining and development of new clean-energy activities, with officials arguing that discussions should begin without waiting for the licence to run out. Cerrejon – which includes a major mining site, railway and port – produced 16.8m tonnes of coal in 2025. The move aligns with Petro’s broader strategy to halt new fossil-fuel exploration and accelerate a shift toward renewables. While signalling long-term structural change in the country’s mining sector, a near-term shutdown appears unlikely given the mine’s scale and economic importance.
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Asia Pacific: Philippine Senator Dela Rosa to testify in drug war investigation
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political polarisation; civil unrest
In the Philippines, on 11 May Senator Ronald ‘Bato’ Dela Rosa returned to national politics amid an inquiry into his role as former chief of police during former president Rodrigo Duterte’s ‘war on drugs’, which is estimated to have killed up to 33,000 people since 2016. Dela Rosa – a key ally of the Duterte political dynasty – disappeared from public affairs after on 8 November 2025 Ombudsman Jesus Crispin Remulla claimed to have an ICC warrant for his arrest, which the ICC later denied. Dela Rosa’s investigation is taking place alongside impeachment deliberations on estranged Vice President Sara Duterte, who previously threatened to have President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. killed. Dela Rosa is set to testify on 14 May, potentially raising the risk of civil unrest amid perceptions of a political ‘witch hunt’ should both he and Duterte be removed from office.
Click here to access the Philippines’ Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Russia hints at end to Ukraine war as both sides report Victory Day ceasefire violations
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land; targeted attacks
In Ukraine, on 10 May at least three people were killed in Russian drone and artillery attacks in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson Oblasts, according to local authorities. Moscow accused Kyiv of violating a ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump on 8 May, lasting from 9 to 11 May during the WWII Victory Day celebrations in Moscow. The annual event was scaled back by Russian authorities amid concerns over potential Ukrainian drone attacks. Trump stated the two sides agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners each. On 9 May Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the war could end “soon” in unusual remarks, which came amid the second such rare ceasefire this year, signalling growing internal pressure to reach a peace deal to end the conflict amid rising economic pressures. Ukrainian officials have also begun debating how to present a conflict resolution to the public.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: UK PM Starmer faces growing calls to resign following massive defeat in local elections
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In the UK, on 11 May Prime Minister Keir Starmer narrowly avoided a leadership challenge as former minister Catherine West rolled back her threat to launch a leadership contest but called on MPs to back an “orderly transition” in September. Starmer has been struggling with a stagnant economy, scandals over the appointment of former US ambassador Peter Mandelson and a landslide defeat in 7 May’s local elections. Labour lost around two thirds of its local council seats, primarily to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, marking the worst performance by any political party this century and highlighting discontent with traditional parties. Health Secretary Wes Streeting, former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham are the leading candidates to replace Starmer. While Starmer may be able to delay a contest, he is highly unlikely to remain in his post.
Click here to access the UK’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Drone attacks reported across Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE amid strained Iran-US ceasefire
Sectors: all
Key risks: war at sea; business disruptions; trade disruptions; frustration of process; targeted attacks
In Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE, on 10 May drone attacks were reported as tensions escalated surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar stated a drone struck a cargo vessel near Mesaieed port, while Kuwait intercepted multiple drones and the UAE reported shooting down two drones. Earlier, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) stated a bulk carrier had reported being struck by an unknown projectile while sailing 23 nautical miles northeast of Doha. Vessels in the area have been advised to transit with caution. The incidents occurred amid continued maritime confrontations between Tehran and Washington. On 8 May the US struck two Iranian oil tankers, stating they were trying to breach its blockade of Iran’s ports. As Tehran and Washington escalate militarily and reject responsibility, the 7 April ceasefire framework is highly likely to collapse, raising the prospect of renewed regional confrontation.
Click here to access Qatar’s, here to access Kuwait’s and here to access the UAE’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Latest militant attack highlights expanding insurgency in eastern DRC
Sectors: all
Key risks: insurgency; violent clashes; targeted attacks
In the DRC, on 10 May at least four civilians were killed in the latest attack by Islamic State (IS)-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in Makumo, Ituri province. The ADF has stepped up its presence in Mambasa territory, Ituri province, with several attacks reported in the areas since the start of May. Alongside the attacks, local reports indicate that the ADF is entrenching its presence in territories it controls, potentially indicating a shift from the mobile camps the group previously used. The group reportedly imposed taxes on civilians living in areas under its control, with each adult forced to pay CDF30,000 (US$13) while farmers are charged US$25-50 to access their fields. Despite operations by the military and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF), the increased frequency of raids and reported “taxes” will likely further entrench the ADF in Ituri province.
Click here to access the DRC’s Global Intake country profile.