Date first published: 26/05/2026
Key sectors: aviation; energy; defence
Key risks: targeted attacks; regional conflict; regional escalation
Risk development
On 29 May at least two people were injured and hospitalised with burns after a Russian drone struck an apartment block in Galati, Galati county in eastern Romania, near the border with Moldova and Ukraine. The attack came amid a major Russian drone barrage targeting Ukraine’s Danube river port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, and marked the first direct strike causing injuries on the territory of a NATO member state. Bucharest condemned the attack as a serious violation of international law, summoned the Russian ambassador and requested NATO accelerate the transfer of anti-drone capabilities.
Why it matters
While Russian drone debris has been recovered on Romanian soil on numerous occasions since 2023, the Galati strike crosses a new threshold following four years of drone incursions along NATO’s eastern flank. The drone struck a populated urban area and caused casualties, removing the ambiguity that allowed Bucharest and Moscow to treat earlier breaches as accidental. The incident also underscored the dilemma of intercepting low-cost drones with fighter jets and air-to-air missiles, as Romanian F-16s, which had scrambled with permission to fire, held off from interception over fears of collateral damage.
Background
Most recent drone incursions into NATO territory have been concentrated in the Baltic states, though the wave has been attributed to Ukrainian drone strike attempts in neighbouring Russia. On 23 March Estonia reported that a suspected Ukrainian drone coming from Russian territory struck a power station chimney in Auvere, Ida-Viru county, signalling rising exposure of commercial assets to the fallout from the war in Ukraine. On 7 May suspected Ukrainian drones that strayed from Russian territory damaged fuel storage tanks in Rezekne, Latvia. The fallout took a political turn when on 10 May Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina dismissed Defence Minister Andris Spruds over his handling of the incidents. His Progressives party withdrew support and on 14 May the government collapsed. Ukraine apologised for the incidents, blaming Moscow for redirecting the drones.
Subsequently, on 17 May suspected Ukrainian drone debris was found in Samane, Lithuania. On 19 May Estonia announced that NATO jets had shot down a suspected Ukrainian drone over its territory, and on 20 May Lithuania’s Vilnius airport suspended flights after a drone was tracked crossing from Belarus. On 21 May Riga reported at least one drone entering its airspace, scrambling NATO fighter jets and advising citizens to seek shelter, while Lithuania separately searched for two drones in its airspace. The pattern reflects Ukraine intensifying its drone campaign across Russia – including the Baltic Sea oil export hubs of Primorsk and Ust-Luga – while Moscow seeks to deflect the attacks toward neighbouring states.
Risk outlook
The Galati strike raises the probability of NATO escalation compared to previous incidents, although the response is likely to remain calibrated and fall below NATO’s Article 5 collective-defence threshold. Bucharest has so far declined to trigger formal Article 4 consultations, opting instead to press allies for faster delivery of counter-drone systems, including the United States (US)-made Merops. Other states have triggered reinforcements: Poland’s September 2025 Article 4 request triggered Operation Eastern Sentry, and Baltic Air Police rotations have been brought forward, with Turkish F-16s requested for Estonia from August. Russian pressure on the eastern flank is likely to continue as a means of asymmetrical warfare, a deterrent signal and a means of testing NATO unity and response. The risk of further airspace closures at regional airports such as Vilnius and intermittent disruptions to commercial aviation and energy assets remains high. The main risk is miscalculation – a strike causing fatalities, or a deliberate Russian provocation, could force a harsher response at a moment when US commitment to Article 5 is increasingly in doubt.