Americas: Tren de Aragua leader killed in US-Venezuela joint strike in Venezuela’s Bolivar state
Sectors: all
Key Risks: gang violence; terrorism; regional escalation
In Venezuela, on 13 June the US military jointly conducted an airstrike with local authorities that killed Hector Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, leader of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua (TDA) organised crime group, at an undisclosed location in Bolivar state. The strike followed the US designation of TDA as a terrorist organisation on 20 February 2025, accusing it of waging “irregular warfare” against the country. Interim President Delcy Rodriguez has cooperated closely with the administration of US President Donald Trump since assuming office on 5 January, following the seizure of deposed president Nicolas Maduro by US forces to face narco-terrorism charges in New York. Further joint operations targeting organised crime in the country and across the broader region are likely, alongside an elevated risk of retaliatory violence and territorial disputes among TDA successor factions, particularly across Bolivar state’s mining belt.
Click here to access Venezuela’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Arakan Army intensifies targeting of Myanmar naval bases in Rakhine state
Sectors: all
Key Risks: violent clashes; targeted attacks; war on land; political violence; insurgency
In Myanmar, on 12 June reports emerged that the Arakan Army (AA) rebel group advanced on the Shwe Min Gan naval base near Sittwe, Rakhine state, seizing smaller military outposts nearby in an effort to surround the base. Simultaneously, AA forces targeted the Taung Maw Oo naval base in Kyaukphyu township, a key location for China-backed mega-projects including a cross-country oil and gas pipeline linking Beijing’s Yunnan province to the Indian Ocean. The pipeline’s terminus on Maday Island, Rakhine state, is located just 10 km from Kyaukphyu itself. Reports also indicated that the AA launched attacks on Ordnance Factory 16, a Naypyidaw-linked weapons facility, in neighbouring Padaung township, Bago-West region. Should the AA seize the Shwe Min Gan and Taung Maw Oo naval bases, it is likely to appropriate weapons and other assets to target major infrastructure projects in Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Munaung townships.
Click here to access Myanmar’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Kyiv, Chisinau open first cluster of EU accession talks
Sectors: all
Key Risks: economic risks
On 15 June, at an Intergovernmental Conference in Luxembourg, Ukraine and Moldova officially opened the first cluster of accession talks to join the EU, known as the Fundamentals Cluster. This followed the agreement by ambassadors from the EU’s member states on 12 June to advance membership talks with the two countries. The decision had previously been blocked by former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. However, newly elected Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar lifted Budapest’s veto on 3 June after securing a deal with Kyiv on the rights of the ethnic Hungarian minority in Ukraine. The end of the impasse marked a major milestone for Kyiv and Chisinau, which were accepted as EU candidate countries in 2022 and approved to launch accession talks in 2023. The accession talks risk becoming a lengthy process, although internal EU debates on ways to accelerate them are likely to grow.
Click here to access Moldova’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Protesters target Kushner-linked tourism resort site amid swelling protests in Albania
Sectors: all; tourism
Key Risks: civil unrest; business risks; political stability
In Albania, on 13 June around 200 protesters tore down metal fences around the construction site of a planned tourism resort project in Rrjoll, near Shkodra, in the protected Zvernec coastal area. The incident came amid swelling protests against the US$4bln project backed by investors linked to Jared Kushner – US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law. In the biggest such rally yet, on 5 June dozens of protesters clashed with police as thousands demonstrated against the project in the capital Tirana. Environmental groups warned the project would damage the area’s biodiversity. Officials have pledged to continue the project and stated that environmental impact assessments are being drafted to ensure compliance with local and EU safeguards. EU officials urged Tirana to ensure environmental compliance as part of its bid to join the bloc. Opposition to the project risks swelling into broader unrest amid discontent with the government.
Click here to access Albania’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: IDF strikes in Lebanon risk derailing Iran-US framework agreement
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; targeted attacks; regional escalation; regional conflict
In Lebanon on 14 June at least three people were killed in Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrikes in Beirut’s Dahiyeh, after Hizbullah rockets were allegedly launched towards northern Israel. This came as the US and Iran were nearing an agreement, negotiated without Israeli participation, that would include an end to hostilities in Lebanon. However, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated Tel Aviv would maintain military control of security zones in southern Lebanon despite the framework agreement announced on 15 June, adding that any Iranian attack would trigger a forceful response. While the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) is reportedly set to be signed in Switzerland on 19 June, clashes between IDF and Hizbullah remain highly likely. There is a significant risk not only of renewed escalation in Beirut and southern provinces, but also of a broader deterioration that could reignite hostilities between Israel, Iran and the US.
Click here to access Lebanon’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Two killed in protests against constitutional reform in DRC
Sectors: all
Key risks: political instability; disruptive unrest; civil unrest; political polarisation
In the DRC on 12 June two people were killed and several others, including opposition leaders Martin Fayulu, Jean-Marc Kabund and Delly Sesanga, were injured after security forces opened fire on opposition-led protests in the capital Kinshasa. Protests were led by the Article 64 Coalition (C64) against the passing of a bill on 10 June that strengthened the president’s powers to call a referendum, with President Felix Tshisekedi seeking to extend his term in office. Due to the government’s majority in the legislature, protests will likely be the primary outlet for political opposition. Unrest is likely to intensify as the referendum process advances, with security force responses to C64-led protests increasing the risk of political violence in the capital. The erosion of oversight leaves fewer institutional constraints on Tshisekedi’s ability to consolidate power, increasing the likelihood of security forces heavily cracking down on future opposition protests.
Click here to access the DRC’s Global Intake country profile.