Americas: Supreme Court dispute escalates ahead of 4 October elections in Brazil
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; governance; political polarisation
In Brazil, on 9 September Supreme Court Chief Justice Edson Fachin suspended rival rulings by Justices Flavio Dino and Andre Mendonca concerning the removal and reinstatement of Federal Police chief Andrei Rodrigues, seeking to contain an escalating dispute among justices. The move followed Mendonca’s 8 September order suspending Rodrigues and the Federal Police intelligence chief, backed by a majority of the court’s panel. The dispute is linked to wider investigations into Banco Master and alleged ties between its former president and senior officials. It has also unfolded amid tensions surrounding Justice Alexandre de Moraes, whose role in proceedings against former president Jair Bolsonaro has made him a frequent target of the Bolsonaro-aligned opposition ahead of the 4 October election. The dispute risks further straining relations between the court, police and government. Further tensions could emerge ahead of the 15 September full-bench session.
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Asia Pacific: North Korea launches missiles towards the sea
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war on land
In North Korea, on 12 September the army fired short-range ballistic missiles from the Wonsan area towards the East Sea, a day after the US, South Korea and Japan concluded five days of joint naval exercises. State media confirmed the launches two days later as a joint firepower attack drill involving subunits drawn from five artillery and missile formations and overseen by Marshal Pak Jong Chon. The weapons included attack drones, tactical cruise missiles, thermobaric large-calibre rocket launchers, 600mm rocket artillery and Hwasong-11 ballistic missiles, with officials claiming every target was struck. The emphasis fell on an integrated firepower control system rather than any individual weapon, indicating practice in combining conventional and nuclear-capable systems under single command. South Korea called the launches a serious violation of UN resolutions, the 13th such test in 2026 so far. Further launches are likely around allied exercises.
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Eurasia: Trump urges Ukraine’s Zelensky to stop attacking Russia’s diesel fuel infrastructure
Sectors: oil and gas
Key Risks: war-on-land
US President Donald Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop attacking diesel fuel infrastructure in Russia, claiming they were “hurting the world”. Trump’s comment came as the price of diesel hit an all-time high in the US, reaching an average of US$6.20 a gallon on 13 September, ahead of the November midterm elections. According to the AAA motor club, the 13 September price was up nearly 65 per cent since the beginning of the Middle East war on 28 February. Kyiv has stepped up attacks on Russia’s refining system in the past months, most recently on 13 September, when Ukrainian forces attacked the Slavyansk-on-Kuban refinery in Krasnodar Krai. Further such strikes are likely, while Washington is likely to intensify efforts to reach a ceasefire covering attacks on energy and oil and gas infrastructure.
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Europe: Germany to hold two state elections on 20 September amid AfD rise
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Germany, on 20 September voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will cast their ballots in state elections, in what are likely to be closely watched polls following the victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the Saxony-Anhalt election on 6 September and Christian Democrats (CDU) victory in Lower Saxony on 13 September. The AfD is polling first in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, although only slightly above the Social Democratic Party, which appears to be closing the gap. In Berlin, the race is set to be very close, with the AfD, the CDU and the left-wing Linke party all polling around 20 per cent. Should the AfD secure victories, particularly in Berlin, it will increase pressure on Merz, who is already under significant pressure to resign over the high cost of living, a slow reform programme and rising support for the AfD.
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MENA: Fuel price increases trigger protests across northern Syria
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; supply chain disruption; political uncertainty
In Syria, on 13 September protesters blocked highways in Hama province and Khan Sheikhoun and Maarat al-Numan in Idbil province after the government increased diesel prices by up to 40 per cent and petrol prices by 28 per cent. Protesters burned tyres and blocked the road to the Turkish border, disrupting overland movement. The protests reflect wider frustration over deteriorating living conditions, limited economic progress and the government’s handling of economic policy. Energy Minister Mohammad al-Bashir has been summoned before parliament for questioning, increasing pressure on the government to explain the decision. Further protests and road blockades are likely in the coming days, with parliamentary scrutiny increasing pressure for clearer communication, concessions or a partial reversal of the increases. Failure to address public grievances could broaden unrest and further undermine confidence in the transitional government.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Police ban protests with no permit as civil unrest heightened in The Gambia
Sectors: all; infrastructure
Key risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; policy uncertainty; political polarisation
In The Gambia, on 11 September Inspector General of Police Seedy Mukhtar Touray announced that no protest would be permitted without prior authorisation following the 8 September protests outside of President Adama Barrow’s residence. Protesters had burned tyres and erected barricades in Banjul and other areas to denounce power outages during the hottest months of the year, prompting police to disperse crowds with tear gas. During the protest, a police post was vandalised, detainees were freed from custody and the national water and electricity provider closed three branches after its property was damaged. The unrest reflects mounting frustration with President Adama Barrow, who is seeking a controversial third term in the 5 December presidential election, with protests further raising political tensions. Further protests are likely, with future demonstrations expected to be more disruptive in the coming weeks.
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