Americas: Congress approves US$1.9bln IMF loan amid warnings of renewed unrest in Bolivia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; economic risks; policy uncertainty
In Bolivia, on 18 September Congress approved a US$1.9bln IMF loan, clearing a key legislative hurdle for a three-year programme aimed at rebuilding depleted foreign reserves and stabilising the economy. The agreement still requires IMF Executive Board approval and is expected to unlock around US$5bln in additional financing from the World Bank and other lenders. In return, the government must implement fiscal consolidation and broader economic reforms, while President Rodrigo Paz has already ended the diesel subsidy and plans to phase out remaining fuel subsidies. The measures risk renewed social unrest, with the main labour federation opposing the programme after weeks of road blockades in June and July, while Congress has extended a state of emergency for a further 90 days. Paz is expected to proceed with the reforms while seeking to mitigate their impact on vulnerable households.
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Asia Pacific: Duterte family faces trials in The Hague and Manila
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political uncertainty, political
In the Philippines, on 21 September Vice President Sara Duterte stated she hoped International Criminal Court (ICC) judges would consider the age and health of her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, before his trial. The judges kept him in detention ahead of his 30 November trial for crimes against humanity over killings during his anti-drug campaign. Sara Duterte faces her own Senate impeachment trial over alleged misuse of PHP612.5m (US$10m) in confidential funds, unexplained wealth, bribery and a 2024 threat to have President Ferdinand Marcos Jr killed. Conviction would bar her from the 2028 presidential election, in which she leads polls. With four senators unable to vote, the Senate is due to decide on 23 September whether to cut the conviction threshold from 16 votes to 14, leaving the 13-member bloc aligned with Marcos one vote short rather than three. Conviction remains unlikely unless a Duterte-aligned senator defects.
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Eurasia: Concerns grow in Russia over potential mobilisation following Duma elections
Sectors: oil and gas
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Russia, the State Duma election concluded on 20 September, with preliminary results showing that President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party was likely to secure a strong majority, potentially the strongest mandate the party had ever received. The outcome came as no surprise, given the effective absence of opposition after the anti-war Yabloko party was removed from the federal ballot on 10 August. However, there are concerns among Russians that Putin will use the strong mandate to declare another mobilisation. There had been speculation about such a move in the weeks leading up to the election despite Putin officially ruling it out. The outcome could prompt increased emigration among Russians, with the anti-war project Ark reporting that requests for emigration advice have increased nearly eightfold since the start of the summer.
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Europe: Pressure mounts on PM Merz following CDU losses in German state elections
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Germany, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Prime Minister Friedrich Merz suffered losses in the 20 September state elections. Preliminary results showed that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party secured victory in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with 38.2 per cent of the vote, closely followed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) with 35.5 per cent. The CDU failed to reach the 5 per cent threshold required to enter parliament, securing only 4.9 per cent of the vote, in what Merz called a “disaster”. In Berlin, the left-wing Linke party came first with 25.7 per cent, followed by the CDU with 18.8 per cent and the AfD with 16.3 per cent. The outcomes will increase pressure on increasingly unpopular Merz. Following the vote, he stated that he would remain in power but pledged reforms. His weakened position will sustain political stability risks in the short term.
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MENA: Suspected IS attack puts power transmission tower out of service in Iraq
Sectors: all
Key risks: governance; violent clashes; business disruptions; terrorism; targeted attacks
In Iraq, on 18 September one power transmission tower on the Haditha-Baiji line was blown up, causing the Baiji-Haditha 400 KV power line to be cut off in the area between Baiji district, north of Salah al-Din province, and Haditha district, north-east of Anbar province. Islamic State (IS) is suspected of being behind the attack since IS militants attempted to attack another tower in the same corridor, which security forces foiled before the militants reached the infrastructure, triggering clashes. Security forces launched a sweep of the surrounding desert areas and tightened security around transmission infrastructure. This happened as US-led International Coalition (IC) forces are expected to withdraw from the country on 30 September. Similar attacks by IS and other militias are expected to rise over the coming weeks.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Seven Ethiopian armed groups form coalition to overthrow government
Sectors: all
Key risks: insurgency; separatism; regional escalation; government instability
In Ethiopia, on 20 September seven armed groups formally announced the formation of a coalition aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and installing an inclusive transitional government. The bloc includes the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and three other groups. By coordinating former rivals into a single front, the coalition could stretch federal forces across multiple regions at once. However, divergent aims and overlapping ideological positions will undermine the coalition’s cohesiveness. Eritrea’s reported support for the AFNM and TPLF also risks escalating regional tensions in the short term. The announcement, while unlikely to notably alter the security landscape in the short term, threatens to further destabilise several regions and raise the risk of renewed conflict in the coming months.
Click here to access Ethiopia’s Global Intake country profile.