Americas: Campaigning set to intensify ahead of 25 October presidential runoff in Brazil
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political uncertainty; political polarisation; policy uncertainty; policy continuity
In Brazil, on 4 October right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro narrowly led incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the first-round presidential election, winning 47 per cent of valid votes to Lula’s 45 per cent. Bolsonaro outperformed pre-election polls – which had forecast a narrow Lula lead – amid voter concerns over the cost of living, crime and corruption. The result highlights continued political polarisation and increases uncertainty ahead of the 25 October runoff, while concerns over the country’s public finances and sluggish economic growth will remain key challenges for the next government. Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup, and Lula will now seek to consolidate support from eliminated candidates. Campaigning is expected to intensify, with polling likely to remain close and financial markets sensitive to developments ahead of the runoff.
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Asia Pacific: Pakistan cracks down as PTI starts protest march
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political uncertainty, political instability, civil unrest
In Pakistan, on 4 October more than 5,000 supporters of former prime minister Imran Khan, jailed since August 2023, began marching from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa towards Islamabad after talks with the government collapsed. Sohail Afridi, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s chief minister from Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led the convoy, which was due at Khairabad, near the Punjab border, on 8 October. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi vowed to confine marchers to the province, and containers blocked routes into the capital. The PTI stated police detained more than 75 activists in Karachi the same day, while Khan’s sisters remained in detention after their arrest on 20 and 21 September. Three years of arrests and forced defections left the PTI less able to mobilise than in November 2024, when its march reached central Islamabad. The march is likely to stall at the provincial border and cause less disruption than in 2024.
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Eurasia: Russia intensifies attacks on Kyiv
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Ukraine, Russia’s aerial campaign against major cities, particularly Kyiv, is intensifying ahead of winter. Moscow has expanded its target set to include bridges in the capital, in what marked a significant escalation. This came amid an increase in both the frequency and number of strikes on Kyiv, which is also being increasingly targeted during the day. On 30 September Kyiv was under an air raid alert for more than 20 hours amid a massive Russian assault on energy infrastructure. On 3 October President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine would intensify its attacks on Russia’s oil refineries in response to Russian attacks on Kyiv and other major cities. On 4 October the Russian Defence Ministry stated that Russian forces would step up attacks on military facilities, defence industry sites and related infrastructure in Kyiv and elsewhere in Ukraine. The remarks suggest that the strikes are likely to intensify further.
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Europe: Student unions call for national day of demonstrations in France on 6 October
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; targeted attack; looting; vandalism
In France, student unions have called for a national day of demonstrations on 6 October. Trade unionists, teachers, public sector workers and parents’ groups are expected to join the marches. The demonstrations will form part of nationwide protests by high school students over issues in the education sector, including overcrowded classrooms, teacher shortages and outdated facilities. Protests erupted on 17 September at a high school in the Paris suburb of Creteil and have spread nationwide, in some cases turning violent, with reports of clashes between protesters and police, as well as vandalism. According to the Education Ministry, 24 schools have been burned or ransacked since the protests began and more than 5,000 people have been detained. There is a heightened risk of violence during the demonstrations on 6 October, particularly in Paris. Protests are likely to continue beyond 6 October in the absence of major concessions from the government.
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MENA: IRG launches offensive to retake Huthi-held territory in Yemen
Sectors: all
Key risks: targeted attacks; war on land; civil war; regional conflict
In Yemen, on 4 October the Internationally Recognised Government (IRG) announced a major military offensive to retake Huthi-held territory. Saudi-led forces have intensified air and artillery support for IRG troops. In response, the Huthis claimed to have launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and Khurais following Saudi-led strikes on Yemen. The Saudi-backed campaign followed major Huthi gains along the Red Sea coast and around Bab al-Mandab in September. The advance gave the Huthis new leverage over the international shipping route while passage through the Strait of Hormuz, to the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, remains significantly restricted. The US is already providing intelligence support to Riyadh’s operations but is unlikely to intervene directly. Heavy fighting is likely to intensify as IRG forces seek to reverse Huthi territorial gains and restore access to Tai’zz province.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Ethiopia’s federal forces retake Tigray capital Mekelle from the TPLF
Sectors: all
Key risks: insurgency; separatism; regional escalation; civil war
In Ethiopia, on 4 October federal forces and the allied pro-government Tigray Peace Forces (TPF) entered Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, after government forces recaptured Mekelle airport on 3 October. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) stated it had withdrawn and would relocate its regional administration, with TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael signalling a shift to guerrilla warfare. A TPLF shift towards an insurgency would further destabilise large parts of Tigray region, with Addis Ababa likely to struggle to project influence beyond urban centres. A dispersed TPLF will likely support insurgent operations in Amhara and Oromia region, with Amara and Oromo militias likely to capitalise on Addis Ababa’s focus in Tigray region to capture territory. Reports of military build-ups along the border with Eritrea and the expulsion of Eritrean and Egyptian diplomats on 2 October raises the risk of regional tensions.
Click here to access Ethiopia’s Global Intake country profile.