Americas: President Lula leads polls ahead of closely contested 4 October election in Brazil
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political uncertainty; political polarisation; policy uncertainty; policy continuity
In Brazil, on 4 October voters will elect a president, with leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth non-consecutive term against right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Recent polls indicated a highly competitive race, with Quaest polling agency putting Lula ahead in the first round on 39 per cent, compared with 34 per cent for Bolsonaro, while BTG Pactual/Nexus gave Lula a 42-37 per cent lead. In simulated runoffs, however, the candidates are within the polls’ margins of error, with Quaest showing them tied at 42 per cent and Nexus putting Lula at 46 per cent against 44 per cent. The results suggest a runoff is likely on 25 October, with neither candidate currently close to the 50 per cent threshold. The closely contested race will sustain political polarisation and uncertainty ahead of the election.
Click here to access Brazil’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Thailand’s government survives legal scare, but challenges remain
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political uncertainty, political instability
In Thailand, on 28 September the Constitutional Court ruled that barcodes and QR codes on ballots in the 8 February general election did not breach voting secrecy, removing the threat of a rerun. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai governs with Pheu Thai and smaller parties, holding about 290 of 500 seats. Support for Anutin as prime minister fell by more than half in 2026, to 13.8 per cent, in a poll released on 27 September. The Election Commission voted on 14 September not to prosecute Anutin over alleged rigging of the 2024 Senate selection, but a money-laundering probe continues. Opposition party Kla Tham, with 58 seats, may join the government by November, insulating Anutin against a Pheu Thai exit. The government is likely to survive a no-confidence motion due by the end of September, but falling support leaves it exposed to legal challenges and protests.
Click here to access Thailand’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: US proposes trilateral talks with Russia, Ukraine
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the US had proposed a technical-level trilateral meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the US. He added that Kyiv was awaiting details, and that the US had suggested the UAE as a possible location. The Kremlin stated that such talks could happen soon. The proposal followed Zelensky’s talks with US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the UNGA on 22 September. Zelensky stated that once a proposal was received, Kyiv would inform and discuss it with its European partners, while the US would share it with Russia, and that “Kyiv would return within 10 days with either a new perspective or a result”. A trilateral meeting would mark the most concrete step in renewed diplomatic efforts. However, there has been no sign of a shift in positions, suggesting that a peace agreement remains unlikely.
Click here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Citizen to vote in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s general elections amid high polarisation
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political polarisation
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, citizens will head to the polls on 4 October to elect the country’s new leadership. More than 518 officials will be elected in the general vote under the country’s complex political system, including the state presidency, Federation and Republika Srpska assemblies and RS presidency. The election will come amid high political polarisation, further strained by the passing of convicted war criminal and wartime commander Ratko Mladic. Multiple RS officials travelled to his funeral in Belgrade, including former RS president Milorad Dodik, who is barred from running but remains the main face of his Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) party. Ahead of the vote, ODIHR warned of multiple issues, including a reduction in the number of polling stations and the introduction of electoral information and communication technologies (ICT). Political instability will remain heightened in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Armed blockade disrupts Libya’s oil exports through Az Zawiyah
Sectors: all
Key risks: economic risks; business disruption; supply chain disruption; targeted attacks;
In Libya, on 27 September the National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced the reopening of the Sharara-Az Zawiyah pipeline after an armed group blocked valve seven for several days, causing an estimated US$95m in losses. The pipeline connects the Sharara oilfield in south-western Libya with the Az Zawiyah export terminal and is operated by Akakus, a joint venture involving Repsol, TotalEnergies, OMV and Equinor. The group closed the valve on 22 September, although its identity and demands remained unclear. The disruption followed a separate 15 September blockade of the Hamada-Az Zawiyah pipeline by Petroleum Facilities Guard personnel amid demands for higher salaries. Further armed blockades of oil infrastructure remain likely in the coming days and weeks, particularly amid persistent political and security fragmentation. Renewed disruptions could temporarily constrain production and exports, generating additional financial losses and operational uncertainty for international energy companies.
Click here to access Libya’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: TPLF multi-regional offensive threatens resumption of civil war in Ethiopia
Sectors: all
Key risks: insurgency; separatism; regional escalation; civil war
In Ethiopia, on 23 September the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) seized airports across Tigray region and launched an offensive against government forces in the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. The seizures forced Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to and from Tigray. Clashes were reported around Abala and Erebti, Afar region, and near Lalibela, Amhara region, with Tigrayan forces said to be fighting alongside the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM). The escalation followed the TPLF’s 20 September alliance with six armed groups seeking to oust Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. On 23 September the government launched a counter-offensive, capturing multiple towns in Tigray region. The convergence of multiple regional insurgencies will destabilise the northern and western areas of the country further. With reports of tacit Eritrean support and Ethiopian accusations of Sudanese support for the alliance, there is a latent risk of regional escalation.
Click here to access Ethiopia’s Global Intake country profile.