Americas: Cuba states its military readying for US aggression
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty; regional escalation
In Cuba, on 21 March Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio stated that the military was preparing for a potential US aggression, adding that it would be “naive” to ignore the possibility of conflict but that officials hoped it would not come to such a scenario. The remarks came after on 20 March Havana rejected any suggestion that its political system, President Miguel Diaz-Canel’s term or officials’ positions were subject to negotiations with Washington. Diaz-Canel opened talks with Washington on 13 March amid a severe energy crisis driven by the US oil blockade and US President Donald Trump’s sustained pressures on Havana, including escalating rhetoric of a “friendly takeover” of the island. Trump’s administration is reportedly preparing an economic deal with Havana, which includes pushing Diaz-Canel – with two years remaining in office – from power. Disagreements over sanctions and political reforms will sustain heightened tensions.
Click here to access Cuba’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: China offers cooperation with Southeast Asia to address energy insecurity
Sectors: oil and gas; transportation
Key Risks: supply chain disruption; business disruptions; trade disruptions
In China, on 19 March Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that Beijing was open to cooperating with Southeast Asian countries to stabilise regional fuel supplies and offset the impact of shortages triggered by the Middle East war. The announcement represents a turnaround from the previous 12 March decision to conserve supplies by banning the export of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. The ban has led to Southeast Asian countries such as Cambodia relying on increased imports from Vietnam and Malaysia. Simultaneously, Philippine officials launched a fuel subsidy programme for hired car drivers throughout Manila, with an extension to cover the entire country “once the list of beneficiaries is finalised” in April. While it remained unclear when fuel exports would restart, the move is likely to improve relations between Beijing and regional actors as local fuel supplies remain strained.
Click here to access China’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Ukraine steps up attacks on Russia’s oil exports, hits Baltic ports amid Middle East war
Sectors: all; oil & gas; shipping; agriculture
Key Risks: war-on-land; war-at-sea; targeted attacks; supply chain disruptions; trade disruptions
In Russia, on 23 March industry sources reported that the biggest Baltic Sea oil export ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, Leningrad Oblast, suspended operations after Ukrainian drone attacks on 22 March. Regional authorities stated that several fuel reservoirs in Primorsk were set ablaze after the attacks, while it was not immediately clear if Ust-Luga’s port sustained any damage. Ukraine is targeting Moscow’s oil exports to prevent it from capitalising on growing demand for its energy supplies amid the Middle East war and disruptions to Gulf energy production. On 19 March Gazprom reported repelling over a dozen attacks over the preceding two weeks on pumping stations serving the TurkStream and BlueStream pipelines supplying gas to Turkey and Southeastern Europe. The attacks will compound global energy shortages with cascading effects into agricultural markets, causing disruptions that threaten import-dependent and fiscally strained countries in the Global South.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Denmark’s Social Democrats likely to secure a narrow win in general elections
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Denmark, on 24 March citizens will vote in parliamentary elections, with polls projecting a narrow win for Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s centre-left bloc. US President Donald Trump’s threats to take over the autonomous territory of Greenland raised support for Frederiksen – previously lagging in the polls – over her tough response to growing US coercion. However, her ruling Social Democrats are still projected to secure their worst results in decades. Debates have focused on the government’s alleged neglect of domestic issues and Frederiksen’s proposal to introduce a tax on the ultra-rich to fund greater social spending. With the current bipartisan coalition unlikely to survive, a return to greater left-right divisions appears likely. Amid the likely indecisive victories for ruling parties, the future coalition could be determined by the centrist Moderates party or even a small group of representatives from Greenland and the Faroe Islands.
Click here to access Denmark’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Trump delays strikes on Iran’s infrastructure for five days; Iran denies talks
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional escalation; nuclear accident; targeted attacks; business disruptions; trade disruptions; frustration of process; supply chain disruption
In Iran, on 23 March the risk of a massive US attack decreased after US President Donald Trump delayed strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days following “good and productive” meetings with Tehran. Iran denied holding any talks with the US, adding that Trump’s remarks aim to ease energy prices – with Brent crude prices falling about 11 per cent – and buy time for military planning. Meanwhile, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a new “wide-scale wave of strikes” in Tehran. Tensions escalated on 21 March, when Trump threatened to strike Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened by 23 March, prompting Tehran’s warnings of retaliation against energy and water infrastructure in the Gulf. Nonetheless, new IDF strikes on critical infrastructure are likely in the next five days. A diplomatic resolution to the war appears unlikely in the short term.
Click here to access Iran’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Troop deployment deepens constitutional crisis in southern Somalia
Sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; governability; violent clashes; civil war
In Somalia, on 19 March federal soldiers were deployed to South West state authority amid an ongoing political dispute between Mogadishu and South West state. The deployment of federal forces has been perceived by South West state regional President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen as an attempt to remove him from power after he announced that South West state broke off relations with the federal government on 17 March. The dispute originated after South West state rejected the 4 March constitution, labelling it unconstitutional. The deployment escalated the political dispute to a security crisis after clashes broke out between the likely pro-federal self-proclaimed South West Liberation Forces (SWLF) and South West regional forces in Qansaxdheere, Bay region, on 14 March. In the absence of mediation mechanisms, the risk of a localised civil conflict will be heightened in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Somalia’s Global Intake country profile.